From a2ffb1317d4083ffd67c55978396d9dc00e48f57 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Humphrey Yang <39026988+HumphreyYang@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2024 12:14:37 +1000 Subject: [PATCH] [french_rev] Translation (#52) * update partial translation * finalize translation * update french_rev --- lectures/french_rev.md | 700 ++++++++++++++++++----------------------- 1 file changed, 312 insertions(+), 388 deletions(-) diff --git a/lectures/french_rev.md b/lectures/french_rev.md index 1f5aec0..a415aaa 100644 --- a/lectures/french_rev.md +++ b/lectures/french_rev.md @@ -4,59 +4,56 @@ jupytext: extension: .md format_name: myst format_version: 0.13 - jupytext_version: 1.16.2 + jupytext_version: 1.16.1 kernelspec: display_name: Python 3 (ipykernel) language: python name: python3 --- -# Inflation During French Revolution +# 法国大革命期间的通货膨胀 -## Overview +## 概览 -This lecture describes some of the monetary and fiscal features of the French Revolution (1789-1799) described by {cite}`sargent_velde1995`. +本讲述描述了 {cite}`sargent_velde1995` 中所述的法国大革命（1789-1799）的一些货币和财政特征。 -To finance public expenditures and service its debts, -the French government embarked on policy experiments. +为了筹资公共开支和偿还债务，法国政府开始了一系列政策实验。 -The authors of these experiments had in mind theories about how government monetary and fiscal policies affected economic outcomes. +这些实验的设计者心中有关于政府货币和财政政策如何影响经济结果的理论。 -Some of those theories about monetary and fiscal policies still interest us today. +其中一些关于货币和财政政策的理论至今仍然值得关注。 -* a **tax-smoothing** model like Robert Barro's {cite}`Barro1979` +* 类似罗伯特·巴罗的**税收平滑**模型 {cite}`Barro1979` - * this normative (i.e., prescriptive model) advises a government to finance temporary war-time surges in expenditures mostly by issuing government debt, raising taxes by just enough to service the additional debt issued during the wary; then, after the war, to roll over whatever debt the government had accumulated during the war; and to increase taxes after the war permanently by just enough to finance interest payments on that post-war government debt + * 这种规范性（即规定性）模式建议政府主要通过发行国债来为战时临时激增的支出提供资金，增加的税收也正好偿还战争期间发行的额外债务；然后，在战争结束后，将政府在战争期间积累的债务展期；并在战争结束后永久性地增加税收，增加的税收正好足够支付战后政府债务的利息。 -* **unpleasant monetarist arithmetic** like that described in this quanteon lecture {doc}`unpleasant` +* 类似于本讲中描述的**不愉快的货币主义方程** {doc}`unpleasant` - * mathematics involving compound interest governed French government debt dynamics in the decades preceding 1789; according to leading historians, that arithmetic set the stage for the French Revolution + * 在 1789 年之前的几十年里，涉及复利的数学支配着法国政府的债务动态；据历史学家称，这种计算方式为法国大革命奠定了基础。 -* a *real bills* theory of the effects of government open market operations in which the government *backs* new issues of paper money with government holdings of valuable real property or financial assets that holders of money can purchase from the government in exchange for their money. +* 关于政府公开市场操作的影响的*真实票据*理论，其中政府用持有的有价值房地产或金融资产*支持*新发行的纸币，纸币持有者可以用他们的钱从政府购买这些资产。 + + * 革命者们从亚当·斯密于1776年出版的《国富论》中了解到这一理论 + * 它塑造了革命者在1789年到1791年之间发行的一种名为 **assignats** 的纸币方式 - * The Revolutionaries learned about this theory from Adam Smith's 1776 book The Wealth of Nations - {cite}`smith2010wealth` and other contemporary sources - - * It shaped how the Revolutionaries issued a paper money called **assignats** from 1789 to 1791 - -* a classical **gold** or **silver standard** +* 经典的 **金本位** 或 **银本位** - * Napoleon Bonaparte became head of the French government in 1799. He used this theory to guide his monetary and fiscal policies + * 拿破仑·波拿巴于1799年成为法国政府首脑。他使用这一理论来指导他的货币和财政政策 -* a classical **inflation-tax** theory of inflation in which Philip Cagan's ({cite}`Cagan`) demand for money studied in this lecture {doc}`cagan_ree` is a key component +* 一个经典的 **通货膨胀税** 理论，其中Philip Cagan的需求货币研究 ({cite}`Cagan`) 是 {doc}`cagan_ree` 的一个核心 - * This theory helps explain French price level and money supply data from 1794 to 1797 + * 这一理论有助于解释1794年至1797年的法国价格水平和货币供应数据 -* a **legal restrictions** or **financial repression** theory of the demand for real balances +* 需求实际余额的 **法律限制** 或 **金融抑制** 理论 - * The Twelve Members comprising the Committee of Public Safety who adminstered the Terror from June 1793 to July 1794 used this theory to shape their monetary policy + * 公共安全委员会的十二个成员，他们在1793年6月至1794年7月期间管理恐怖时期，使用这一理论来塑造他们的货币政策 -We use matplotlib to replicate several of the graphs with which {cite}`sargent_velde1995` portrayed outcomes of these experiments +我们使用 `matplotlib` 复制 {cite}`sargent_velde1995` 描述这些实验结果的几个图表 -## Data Sources +## 数据来源 -This lecture uses data from three spreadsheets assembled by {cite}`sargent_velde1995`: +本讲使用了 {cite}`sargent_velde1995` 汇编的三个表格中的数据： * [datasets/fig_3.xlsx](https://github.com/QuantEcon/lecture-python-intro/blob/main/lectures/datasets/fig_3.xlsx) * [datasets/dette.xlsx](https://github.com/QuantEcon/lecture-python-intro/blob/main/lectures/datasets/dette.xlsx) * [datasets/assignat.xlsx](https://github.com/QuantEcon/lecture-python-intro/blob/main/lectures/datasets/assignat.xlsx) @@ -67,6 +64,11 @@ import pandas as pd import matplotlib.pyplot as plt plt.rcParams.update({'font.size': 12}) +import matplotlib as mpl +FONTPATH = "fonts/SourceHanSerifSC-SemiBold.otf" +mpl.font_manager.fontManager.addfont(FONTPATH) +plt.rcParams['font.family'] = ['Source Han Serif SC'] + base_url = 'https://github.com/QuantEcon/lecture-python-intro/raw/'\ + 'main/lectures/datasets/' @@ -75,36 +77,32 @@ dette_url = f'{base_url}dette.xlsx' assignat_url = f'{base_url}assignat.xlsx' ``` -## Government Expenditures and Taxes Collected - - - -We'll start by using `matplotlib` to construct several graphs that will provide important historical context. - -These graphs are versions of ones that appear in {cite}`sargent_velde1995`. +## 政府开支与税收 -These graphs show that during the 18th century +我们将使用 `matplotlib` 构建几个图表，这些图表将提供重要的历史背景。 - * government expenditures in France and Great Britain both surged during four big wars, and by comparable amounts - * In Britain, tax revenues were approximately equal to government expenditures during peace times, - but were substantially less than government expenditures during wars - * In France, even in peace time, tax revenues were substantially less than government expenditures +这些图表是 {cite}`sargent_velde1995` 中图表的翻版。 +这些图表展示了在十八世纪期间： + * 法国和大不列颠的政府开支在四次大战期间都有激增，并且增幅相当 + * 在英国，和平时期的税收大约等于政府开支， + 但在战争期间，税收显著少于政府开支 + * 在法国，即使在和平时期，税收也显著少于政府开支 ```{code-cell} ipython3 --- mystnb: figure: - caption: "Military Spending in Britain and France" + caption: "\u82F1\u6CD5\u519B\u4E8B\u5F00\u652F" name: fr_fig4 --- -# Read the data from Excel file +# 从Excel文件读取数据 data2 = pd.read_excel(dette_url, sheet_name='Militspe', usecols='M:X', skiprows=7, nrows=102, header=None) -# French military spending, 1685-1789, in 1726 livres +# 法国军事开支，1685-1789年，以1726年的里弗尔计 data4 = pd.read_excel(dette_url, sheet_name='Militspe', usecols='D', skiprows=3, nrows=105, header=None).squeeze() @@ -120,40 +118,38 @@ plt.gca().spines['top'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().spines['right'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().tick_params(labelsize=12) plt.xlim([1689, 1790]) -plt.xlabel('*: France') -plt.ylabel('Millions of livres') +plt.xlabel('*：法国') +plt.ylabel('百万里弗') plt.ylim([0, 475]) plt.tight_layout() plt.show() ``` -During the 18th century, Britain and France fought four large wars. +18 世纪，英国和法国进行了四次大规模战争。 -Britain won the first three wars and lost the fourth. +英国赢得了前三场战争，输掉了第四场战争。 -Each of those wars produced surges in both countries' government expenditures that each country somehow had to finance. +每次战争都导致两国政府支出激增，而每个国家都必须以某种方式为这些支出提供资金。 -Figure {numref}`fr_fig4` shows surges in military expenditures in France (in blue) and Great Britain. -during those four wars. +图{numref}`fr_fig4`显示了法国（蓝色）和英国在这四场战争中军费开支的激增。 -A remarkable aspect of figure {numref}`fr_fig4` is that despite having a population less than half of France's, Britain was able to finance military expenses of about the same amounts as France's. +图{numref}`fr_fig4`的一个显著特点是，尽管英国的人口不到法国的一半，但其军费开支却与法国差不多。 -This testifies to Britain's having created state institutions that could sustain high tax collections, government spending , and government borrowing. See {cite}`north1989`. +这证明英国已经建立了能够维持高税收、政府支出和政府借贷的国家机构。参见{cite}`north1989`。 ```{code-cell} ipython3 --- mystnb: figure: - caption: "Government Expenditures and Tax Revenues in Britain" + caption: "\u82F1\u56FD\u653F\u5E9C\u5F00\u652F\u4E0E\u7A0E\u6536" name: fr_fig2 --- - -# Read the data from Excel file +# 从Excel文件读取数据 data2 = pd.read_excel(dette_url, sheet_name='Militspe', usecols='M:X', skiprows=7, nrows=102, header=None) -# Plot the data +# 绘制数据 plt.figure() plt.plot(range(1689, 1791), data2.iloc[:, 5], linewidth=0.8) plt.plot(range(1689, 1791), data2.iloc[:, 11], linewidth=0.8, color='red') @@ -161,80 +157,76 @@ plt.plot(range(1689, 1791), data2.iloc[:, 9], linewidth=0.8, color='orange') plt.plot(range(1689, 1791), data2.iloc[:, 8], 'o-', markerfacecolor='none', linewidth=0.8, color='purple') -# Customize the plot +# 自定义图表 plt.gca().spines['top'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().spines['right'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().tick_params(labelsize=12) plt.xlim([1689, 1790]) -plt.ylabel('millions of pounds', fontsize=12) +plt.ylabel('百万磅', fontsize=12) -# Add text annotations -plt.text(1765, 1.5, 'civil', fontsize=10) -plt.text(1760, 4.2, 'civil plus debt service', fontsize=10) -plt.text(1708, 15.5, 'total govt spending', fontsize=10) -plt.text(1759, 7.3, 'revenues', fontsize=10) +# 添加文本注释 +plt.text(1765, 1.5, '民用', fontsize=10) +plt.text(1760, 4.2, '民用加偿债', fontsize=10) +plt.text(1708, 15.5, '总政府开支', fontsize=10) +plt.text(1759, 7.3, '税收', fontsize=10) plt.tight_layout() plt.show() ``` +图{numref}`fr_fig2`和{numref}`fr_fig3`总结了1789年法国大革命开始前一个世纪英国和法国政府的财政政策。 -Figures {numref}`fr_fig2` and {numref}`fr_fig3` summarize British and French government fiscal policies during the century before the start of the French Revolution in 1789. - - -Before 1789, progressive forces in France admired how Britain had financed its government expenditures and wanted to redesign French fiscal arrangements to make them more like Britain's. +1789年之前，法国的进步力量非常欣赏英国为政府支出提供资金的方式，并希望重新设计法国的财政安排，使其更像英国。 -Figure {numref}`fr_fig2` shows government expenditures and how it was distributed among expenditures for +图{numref}`fr_fig2`显示了政府支出及其在以下各项支出中的分配情况 - * civil (non-military) activities - * debt service, i.e., interest payments - * military expenditures (the yellow line minus the red line) + * 民事（非军事）活动 + * 偿债，即支付利息 + * 军事支出（黄线减去红线） -Figure {numref}`fr_fig2` also plots total government revenues from tax collections (the purple circled line) +图{numref}`fr_fig2`还显示了政府从税收中获得的总收入（紫色圈线） -Notice the surges in total government expenditures associated with surges in military expenditures -in these four wars +请注意，在这四场战争中，政府总支出的激增与军事支出的激增相关联 +在这四场战争中 - * Wars against France's King Louis XIV early in the 18th century - * The War of the Austrian Succession in the 1740s - * The French and Indian War in the 1750's and 1760s - * The American War for Independence from 1775 to 1783 + * 18 世纪初反对法国国王路易十四的战争 + * 17 世纪 40 年代的奥地利王位继承战争 + * 17 世纪 50 年代和 60 年代的法印战争 + * 1775 年至 1783 年的美国独立战争 -Figure {numref}`fr_fig2` indicates that +图{numref}`fr_fig2`显示 - * during times of peace, government expenditures approximately equal taxes and debt service payments neither grow nor decline over time - * during times of wars, government expenditures exceed tax revenues - * the government finances the deficit of revenues relative to expenditures by issuing debt - * after a war is over, the government's tax revenues exceed its non-interest expenditures by just enough to service the debt that the government issued to finance earlier deficits - * thus, after a war, the government does *not* raise taxes by enough to pay off its debt - * instead, it just rolls over whatever debt it inherits, raising taxes by just enough to service the interest payments on that debt + * 和平时期，政府支出与税收大致持平，偿债支出既不增长也不下降 + * 战争时期，政府支出超过税收收入 + * 政府通过发行债务来弥补收入相对于支出的赤字 + * 战争结束后，政府的税收收入超过非利息支出的部分刚好足以偿还政府为弥补前期赤字而发行的债务 + * 因此，在战争结束后，政府不会增加税收来偿还债务 + * 相反，它只是将继承的债务滚动起来，增加的税收正好够偿还债务的利息支出 -Eighteenth-century British fiscal policy portrayed Figure {numref}`fr_fig2` thus looks very much like a text-book example of a *tax-smoothing* model like Robert Barro's {cite}`Barro1979`. +因此，图{numref}`fr_fig2`中描绘的18世纪英国财政政策非常像Robert Barro {cite}`Barro1979`等*税收平滑*模型的教科书例子。 -A striking feature of the graph is what we'll label a *law of gravity* between tax collections and government expenditures. +该图的一个显著特点是税收与政府支出之间的 “重力法则”。 - * levels of government expenditures at taxes attract each other - * while they can temporarily differ -- as they do during wars -- they come back together when peace returns + * 政府支出水平与税收水平相互吸引 + * 虽然它们会暂时出现差异（战争期间就是如此），但当和平重现时，它们又会走到一起。 - - -Next we'll plot data on debt service costs as fractions of government revenues in Great Britain and France during the 18th century. +接下来，我们将绘制 18 世纪英国和法国的偿债成本占政府收入比例的数据。 ```{code-cell} ipython3 --- mystnb: figure: - caption: "Ratio of debt service to taxes, Britain and France" + caption: "\u507F\u503A\u5360\u7A0E\u6536\u6BD4\u4F8B\uFF0C\u82F1\u56FD\u4E0E\u6CD5\ + \u56FD" name: fr_fig1 --- - -# Read the data from the Excel file +# 从Excel文件读取数据 data1 = pd.read_excel(dette_url, sheet_name='Debt', usecols='R:S', skiprows=5, nrows=99, header=None) data1a = pd.read_excel(dette_url, sheet_name='Debt', usecols='P', skiprows=89, nrows=15, header=None) -# Plot the data +# 绘制数据 plt.figure() plt.plot(range(1690, 1789), 100 * data1.iloc[:, 1], linewidth=0.8) @@ -243,31 +235,28 @@ index = (date < 1774) & (data1.iloc[:, 0] > 0) plt.plot(date[index], 100 * data1[index].iloc[:, 0], '*:', color='r', linewidth=0.8) -# Plot the additional data +# 绘制附加数据 plt.plot(range(1774, 1789), 100 * data1a, '*:', color='orange') -# Note about the data -# The French data before 1720 don't match up with the published version -# Set the plot properties +# 图表属性 plt.gca().spines['top'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().spines['right'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().set_facecolor('white') plt.gca().set_xlim([1688, 1788]) -plt.ylabel('% of Taxes') +plt.ylabel('税收的百分比') plt.tight_layout() plt.show() ``` -Figure {numref}`fr_fig1` shows that interest payments on government debt (i.e., so-called ''debt service'') were high fractions of government tax revenues in both Great Britain and France. +图{numref}`fr_fig1`显示，在英国和法国，政府债务的利息支出（即所谓的 “还本付息”）占政府税收收入的比例都很高。 -{numref}`fr_fig2` showed us that in peace times Britain managed to balance its budget despite those large interest costs. - -But as we'll see in our next graph, on the eve of the French Revolution in 1788, the fiscal *law of gravity* that worked so well in Britain did not working very well in France. +{numref}`fr_fig2`向我们展示了在和平时期，尽管利息支出巨大，英国仍然能够平衡预算。 +但正如我们在下一张图中看到的，在1788年法国大革命前夕，在英国行之有效的财政重力法则在法国并不奏效。 ```{code-cell} ipython3 -# Read the data from the Excel file +# 从 Excel 文件中读取数据 data1 = pd.read_excel(fig_3_url, sheet_name='Sheet1', usecols='C:F', skiprows=5, nrows=30, header=None) @@ -278,7 +267,7 @@ data1.replace(0, np.nan, inplace=True) --- mystnb: figure: - caption: "Government Spending and Tax Revenues in France" + caption: "\u6CD5\u56FD\u7684\u653F\u5E9C\u652F\u51FA\u548C\u7A0E\u6536\u6536\u5165" name: fr_fig3 --- # Plot the data @@ -290,154 +279,137 @@ plt.plot(range(1759, 1789, 1), data1.iloc[:, 2], '-o', linewidth=0.8, markerfacecolor='none') plt.plot(range(1759, 1789, 1), data1.iloc[:, 3], '-*', linewidth=0.8) -plt.text(1775, 610, 'total spending', fontsize=10) -plt.text(1773, 325, 'military', fontsize=10) -plt.text(1773, 220, 'civil plus debt service', fontsize=10) -plt.text(1773, 80, 'debt service', fontsize=10) -plt.text(1785, 500, 'revenues', fontsize=10) +plt.text(1775, 610, '总开支', fontsize=10) +plt.text(1773, 325, '军用', fontsize=10) +plt.text(1773, 220, '民用加偿债', fontsize=10) +plt.text(1773, 80, '偿债', fontsize=10) +plt.text(1785, 500, '收入', fontsize=10) plt.gca().spines['top'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().spines['right'].set_visible(False) plt.ylim([0, 700]) -plt.ylabel('millions of livres') +plt.ylabel('百万里弗') plt.tight_layout() plt.show() ``` -{numref}`fr_fig3` shows that on the eve of the French Revolution in 1788, government expenditures exceeded tax revenues. - +{numref}`fr_fig3`显示，在1788年法国大革命前夕，政府支出超过了税收收入。 -Especially during and after France's expenditures to help the Americans in their War of Independence from Great Britain, growing government debt service (i.e., interest payments) -contributed to this situation. -This was partly a consequence of the unfolding of the debt dynamics that underlies the Unpleasant Arithmetic discussed in this quantecon lecture {doc}`unpleasant`. +特别是在法国帮助美国人从英国独立出来的战争期间和之后，不断增长的政府还本付息（即利息支出）造成了这种情况。 +这在一定程度上是债务动态发展的结果，而债务动态 是接下来{doc}`unpleasant`的基础。 -{cite}`sargent_velde1995` describe how the Ancient Regime that until 1788 had governed France had stable institutional features that made it difficult for the government to balance its budget. +{cite}`sargent_velde1995`描述了直到1788年统治法国的古代政体的制度特征是如何使政府难以平衡预算的。 -Powerful contending interests had prevented from the government from closing the gap between its -total expenditures and its tax revenues by either +强大的利益争夺阻碍了政府缩小其总支出与税收之间的差距。 +政府无法通过以下方式缩小总支出与税收之间的差距 - * raising taxes, or - * lowering government's non-debt service (i.e., non-interest) expenditures, or - * lowering debt service (i.e., interest) costs by rescheduling, i.e., defaulting on some debts + * 提高税收，或 + * 降低政府的非偿债（即非利息）支出，或 + * 通过重新安排偿债期限，即拖欠部分债务来降低偿债（即利息）成本 -Precedents and prevailing French arrangements had empowered three constituencies to block adjustments to components of the government budget constraint that they cared especially about +法国的先例和现行安排使三个群体有权阻止对他们特别关心的政府预算约束的组成部分进行调整 -* tax payers -* beneficiaries of government expenditures -* government creditors (i.e., owners of government bonds) +* 纳税人 +* 政府支出的受益人 +* 政府债权人（即政府债券的所有者） -When the French government had confronted a similar situation around 1720 after King Louis XIV's -Wars had left it with a debt crisis, it had sacrificed the interests of -government creditors, i.e., by defaulting enough of its debt to bring reduce interest payments down enough to balance the budget. +1720 年左右，法国国王路易十四发动战争后，法国政府也遇到了类似的情况。 +战争导致债务危机后，法国政府在 1720 年左右面临类似情况时，牺牲了政府债权人（即政府债券所有者）的利益，即通过拖欠足够多的债务来减少利息支出，从而平衡预算。 -Somehow, in 1789, creditors of the French government were more powerful than they had been in 1720. +不知何故，1789 年法国政府的债权人比 1720 年时更加强大。 -Therefore, King Louis XVI convened the Estates General together to ask them to redesign the French constitution in a way that would lower government expenditures or increase taxes, thereby -allowing him to balance the budget while also honoring his promises to creditors of the French government. +因此，路易十六国王召集了全体议员，要求他们重新设计法国宪法，以降低政府开支或增加税收，从而使他既能平衡预算，又能减少债务。 -The King called the Estates General together in an effort to promote the reforms that would -would bring sustained budget balance. +{cite}`sargent_velde1995`描述法国大革命时期是如何实现这一目标的。 -{cite}`sargent_velde1995` describe how the French Revolutionaries set out to accomplish that. +## 国有化、私有化、减债 -## Nationalization, Privatization, Debt Reduction +1789 年，革命党人迅速将议会改组为国民议会。 -In 1789, the Revolutionaries quickly reorganized the Estates General into a National Assembly. +首要任务是解决财政危机，正是这种情况促使国王召开了国民议会。 -A first piece of business was to address the fiscal crisis, the situation that had motivated the King to convene the Estates General. +革命党人不是社会主义者或共产主义者。 -The Revolutionaries were not socialists or communists. +相反，他们尊重私有财产，了解最先进的经济学。 -To the contrary, they respected private property and knew state-of-the-art economics. +他们知道，要偿还政府债务，就必须增加新的收入或减少支出。 -They knew that to honor government debts, they would have to raise new revenues or reduce expenditures. +巧合的是，天主教会拥有大量创收财产。 -A coincidence was that the Catholic Church owned vast income-producing properties. +事实上，根据这些收入流的资本化价值估算，教会土地的价值相当于 +约等于法国政府的全部债务。 -Indeed, the capitalized value of those income streams put estimates of the value of church lands at -about the same amount as the entire French government debt. +这一巧合促成了偿还法国政府债务的三步走计划 -This coincidence fostered a three step plan for servicing the French government debt + * 将教会土地国有化，即扣押或没收教会土地，但不支付任何费用 + * 出售教会土地 + * 用出售所得偿还甚至清偿法国政府的债务 - * nationalize the church lands -- i.e., sequester or confiscate it without paying for it - * sell the church lands - * use the proceeds from those sales to service or even retire French government debt +亚当-斯密在 1776 年出版的《国富论》一书中分析了他所谓的 “真实票据”，并阐述了这一计划所依据的货币理论，许多革命者都读过这本书。 -The monetary theory underlying this plan had been set out by Adam Smith in his analysis of what he called *real bills* in his 1776 book -**The Wealth of Nations** {cite}`smith2010wealth`, which many of the revolutionaries had read. +亚当-斯密将 “真实纸币 ”定义为以生产资本或存货等真实资产为抵押的纸币。 -Adam Smith defined a *real bill* as a paper money note that is backed by a claims on a real asset like productive capital or inventories. +国民议会为实施这一计划做出了巧妙的制度安排。 -The National Assembly put together an ingenious institutional arrangement to implement this plan. +为了回应天主教主教塔列朗（无神论者）的动议，国民议会没收了教会的土地并将其收归国有。 -In response to a motion by Catholic Bishop Talleyrand (an atheist), -the National Assembly confiscated and nationalized Church lands. +国民议会打算用教会土地的收益来偿还国债。 -The National Assembly intended to use earnings from Church lands to service its national debt. +为此，国民议会开始实施一项 “私有化计划”，以便在偿还债务的同时不增加税收。 +不增加税收。 -To do this, it began to implement a ''privatization plan'' that would let it service its debt while -not raising taxes. +他们的计划涉及发行名为“assignats”的纸币，持有者可以使用这些纸币购买国有土地。 -Their plan involved issuing paper notes called ''assignats'' that entitled bearers to use them to purchase state lands. +这些纸币在某种程度上会“和银币一样好”，因为两者都可作为支付手段用于交换那些（曾经属于教会的）土地。 -These paper notes would be ''as good as silver coins'' in the sense that both were acceptable means of payment in exchange for those (formerly) church lands. +财政部长内克尔和国民议会的代表们因此计划通过创造一种新货币，来同时解决私有化问题*和*债务问题。 -Finance Minister Necker and the Constituents of the National Assembly thus planned -to solve the privatization problem *and* the debt problem simultaneously -by creating a new currency. +他们设计了一个通过拍卖没收的土地来筹集资金的方案，从而以政府出售土地为担保，回收已发行的纸币。 -They devised a scheme to raise revenues by auctioning -the confiscated lands, thereby withdrawing paper notes issued on the security of -the lands sold by the government. +这种“税收支撑的货币”方案将国民议会推进到了当时的现代货币理论领域。 - This ''tax-backed money'' scheme propelled the National Assembly into the domains of then modern monetary theories. - -Records of debates show -how members of the Assembly marshaled theory and evidence to assess the likely -effects of their innovation. +辩论记录显示国民议会的成员们如何通过理论和证据来评估这一创新的可能影响。 - * Members of the National Assembly quoted David Hume and Adam Smith - * They cited John Law's System of 1720 and the American experiences with paper money fifteen years -earlier as examples of how paper money schemes can go awry - * Knowing pitfalls, they set out to avoid them + * 国民议会的成员引用了大卫·休谟和亚当·斯密的观点 + * 他们提到了约翰·劳的1720年金融体系和十五年前美国的纸币经验，作为纸币计划可能出错的例子 + * 知道了这些陷阱，他们开始努力避免 -They succeeded for two or three years. +他们的计划在两三年内取得了成功。 -But after that, France entered a big War that disrupted the plan in ways that completely altered the character of France's paper money. {cite}`sargent_velde1995` describe what happened. +但之后，法国卷入了一场大规模的战争，战争扰乱了计划，使得法国纸币的性质发生了根本性的变化。{cite}`sargent_velde1995` 描述了发生的情况。 -## Remaking the tax code and tax administration +## 重塑税收制度与税务管理 -In 1789 the French Revolutionaries formed a National Assembly and set out to remake French -fiscal policy. +1789年，法国革命者成立了国民议会，开始着手重塑法国的财政政策。 -They wanted to honor government debts -- interests of French government creditors were well represented in the National Assembly. +他们希望履行政府债务——法国政府的债权人在国民议会中有很强的代表性。 -But they set out to remake the French tax code and the administrative machinery for collecting taxes. +但他们开始着手重塑法国的税收制度和征税的行政机器。 - * they abolished many taxes - * they abolished the Ancient Regimes scheme for *tax farming* - * tax farming meant that the government had privatized tax collection by hiring private citizens -- so-called tax farmers to collect taxes, while retaining a fraction of them as payment for their services - * the great chemist Lavoisier was also a tax farmer, one of the reasons that the Committee for Public Safety sent him to the guillotine in 1794 + * 他们废除了许多税种 + * 他们废除了古老制度中的*税务承包*机制 + * 税务承包意味着政府将税收征收私有化，雇佣私人公民——所谓的税务承包商来征收税款，而承包商则保留一部分税款作为服务报酬 + * 伟大的化学家拉瓦锡也是一位税务承包商，这也是公共安全委员会在1794年将他送上断头台的原因之一 -As a consequence of these tax reforms, government tax revenues declined +由于这些税收改革，政府税收收入下降。 -The next figure shows this +下一幅图显示了这一情况。 ```{code-cell} ipython3 --- mystnb: figure: - caption: "Index of real per capital revenues, France" + caption: "\u6CD5\u56FD\u4EBA\u5747\u5B9E\u9645\u6536\u5165\u6307\u6570" name: fr_fig5 --- -# Read data from Excel file +# 从Excel文件读取数据 data5 = pd.read_excel(dette_url, sheet_name='Debt', usecols='K', skiprows=41, nrows=120, header=None) -# Plot the data +# 绘制数据 plt.figure() plt.plot(range(1726, 1846), data5.iloc[:, 0], linewidth=0.8) @@ -452,42 +424,40 @@ plt.tight_layout() plt.show() ``` -According to {numref}`fr_fig5`, tax revenues per capita did not rise to their pre 1789 levels -until after 1815, when Napoleon Bonaparte was exiled to St Helena and King Louis XVIII was restored to the French Crown. - - * from 1799 to 1814, Napoleon Bonaparte had other sources of revenues -- booty and reparations from provinces and nations that he defeated in war +根据 {numref}`fr_fig5`，人均税收收入在1789年之前的水平直到1815年后，拿破仑·波拿巴被流放到圣赫勒拿岛并且路易十八恢复法国王位后才得以回升。 - * from 1789 to 1799, the French Revolutionaries turned to another source to raise resources to pay for government purchases of goods and services and to service French government debt. +* 从1799至1814年，拿破仑·波拿巴还有其他的收入来源——战利品和战争中打败的省份和国家支付的赔款 +* 从1789至1799年，法国革命者寻求其他来源来筹集资源，以支付政府购买的货物和服务以及偿还法国政府债务。 -And as the next figure shows, government expenditures exceeded tax revenues by substantial -amounts during the period form 1789 to 1799. +如下图所示，在1789至1799年期间，政府开支大幅超过税收。 ```{code-cell} ipython3 --- mystnb: figure: - caption: "Spending (blue) and Revenues (orange), (real values)" + caption: "\u5F00\u652F\uFF08\u84DD\u8272\uFF09\u548C\u6536\u5165\uFF08\u6A59\u8272\ + \uFF09\uFF0C\uFF08\u5B9E\u503C\uFF09" name: fr_fig11 --- -# Read data from Excel file +# 从Excel文件读取数据 data11 = pd.read_excel(assignat_url, sheet_name='Budgets', usecols='J:K', skiprows=22, nrows=52, header=None) -# Prepare the x-axis data +# 准备x轴数据 x_data = np.concatenate([ np.arange(1791, 1794 + 8/12, 1/12), np.arange(1794 + 9/12, 1795 + 3/12, 1/12) ]) -# Remove NaN values from the data +# 移除NaN数值 data11_clean = data11.dropna() -# Plot the data +# 绘制数据 plt.figure() h = plt.plot(x_data, data11_clean.values[:, 0], linewidth=0.8) h = plt.plot(x_data, data11_clean.values[:, 1], '--', linewidth=0.8) -# Set plot properties +# 设置图表属性 plt.gca().spines['top'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().spines['right'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().set_facecolor('white') @@ -496,34 +466,34 @@ plt.xlim([1791, 1795 + 3/12]) plt.xticks(np.arange(1791, 1796)) plt.yticks(np.arange(0, 201, 20)) -# Set the y-axis label -plt.ylabel('millions of livres', fontsize=12) +# 设置y轴标签 +plt.ylabel('百万里弗', fontsize=12) plt.tight_layout() plt.show() ``` -To cover the discrepancies between government expenditures and tax revenues revealed in {numref}`fr_fig11`, the French revolutionaries printed paper money and spent it. +面对这种财政困境，法国革命者通过多种方式弥补收支差额，其中一种方法是印发纸币并在市场上流通使用。 -The next figure shows that by printing money, they were able to finance substantial purchases -of goods and services, including military goods and soldiers' pay. +为了详细展示这一过程，我们下面将展示纸币的增发与各种商品和服务购买能力之间的关系，特别是军事物资和士兵的支付。 ```{code-cell} ipython3 --- mystnb: figure: - caption: "Revenues raised by printing paper money notes" + caption: "\u7EB8\u5E01\u4F9B\u5E94\u91CF\u4E0E\u4EF7\u683C\u6C34\u5E73" name: fr_fig24 --- -# Read data from Excel file +# 从Ｅxcel中读取数据 data12 = pd.read_excel(assignat_url, sheet_name='seignor', usecols='F', skiprows=6, nrows=75, header=None).squeeze() -# Create a figure and plot the data +# 创建图表并绘制 plt.figure() plt.plot(pd.date_range(start='1790', periods=len(data12), freq='M'), data12, linewidth=0.8) +# 设置图表属性 plt.gca().spines['top'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().spines['right'].set_visible(False) @@ -532,50 +502,50 @@ plt.xticks(ticks=pd.date_range(start='1790', end='1796', freq='AS'), labels=range(1790, 1797)) plt.xlim(pd.Timestamp('1791'), pd.Timestamp('1796-02') + pd.DateOffset(months=2)) -plt.ylabel('millions of livres', fontsize=12) -plt.text(pd.Timestamp('1793-11'), 39.5, 'revenues in 1788', +plt.ylabel('百万里弗', fontsize=12) +plt.text(pd.Timestamp('1793-11'), 39.5, '1788年收入水平', verticalalignment='top', fontsize=12) plt.tight_layout() plt.show() ``` -{numref}`fr_fig24` compares the revenues raised by printing money from 1789 to 1796 with tax revenues that the Ancient Regime had raised in 1788. +{numref}`fr_fig24` 将 1789 年至 1796 年印钞所得的收入与古代政权在 1788 年获得的税收收入进行了比较。 -Measured in goods, revenues raised at time $t$ by printing new money equal +以商品衡量，在 $t$ 时刻通过印制新钞所获得的收入等于 $$ \frac{M_{t+1} - M_t}{p_t} $$ -where - -* $M_t$ is the stock of paper money at time $t$ measured in livres -* $p_t$ is the price level at time $t$ measured in units of goods per livre at time $t$ -* $M_{t+1} - M_t$ is the amount of new money printed at time $t$ +其中 -Notice the 1793-1794 surge in revenues raised by printing money. +* $M_t$ 是以里弗为单位的 $t$ 时刻纸币存量 +* $p_t$ 是以 $t$ 时刻每里弗的商品单位为单位的 $t$ 时刻价格水平 +* $M_{t+1} - M_t$ 是 $t$ 时刻印制的新钞数量 -* This reflects extraordinary measures that the Committee for Public Safety adopted to force citizens to accept paper money, or else. +请注意 1793-1794 年印钞所得收入激增。 -Also note the abrupt fall off in revenues raised by 1797 and the absence of further observations after 1797. +* 这反映了公共安全委员会采取的强制公民接受纸币等的非常措施。 -* This reflects the end of using the printing press to raise revenues. +还要注意 1797 年之前收入的急剧下降以及 1797 年之后下降的结束。 -What French paper money entitled its holders to changed over time in interesting ways. +* 这反映了使用印刷机增加收入的结束。 -These led to outcomes that vary over time and that illustrate the playing out in practice of theories that guided the Revolutionaries' monetary policy decisions. +法国纸币持有者的权利随着时间的推移发生了有趣的变化。 +这些导致了随时间变化的结果，并说明了指导革命者货币政策决策的理论在实践中发挥作用。 -The next figure shows the price level in France during the time that the Revolutionaries used paper money to finance parts of their expenditures. +下图显示了革命者使用纸币为部分支出提供资金期间法国的价格水平。 -Note that we use a log scale because the price level rose so much. +请注意，我们使用对数刻度，因为价格水平上涨了很多。 ```{code-cell} ipython3 --- mystnb: figure: - caption: "Price Level and Price of Gold (log scale)" + caption: "\u4EF7\u683C\u6C34\u5E73\u548C\u9EC4\u91D1\u4EF7\u683C\uFF08\u5BF9\u6570\ + \u523B\u5EA6\uFF09" name: fr_fig9 --- # Read the data from Excel file @@ -601,50 +571,41 @@ plt.axvline(x=1793 + 6.5/12, linestyle='-', linewidth=0.8, color='orange') plt.axvline(x=1794 + 6.5/12, linestyle='-', linewidth=0.8, color='purple') # Add text -plt.text(1793.75, 120, 'Terror', fontsize=12) -plt.text(1795, 2.8, 'price level', fontsize=12) -plt.text(1794.9, 40, 'gold', fontsize=12) +plt.text(1793.75, 120, '“恐怖时期”', fontsize=12) +plt.text(1795, 2.8, '价格水平', fontsize=12) +plt.text(1794.9, 40, '黄金', fontsize=12) plt.tight_layout() plt.show() ``` -We have partioned {numref}`fr_fig9` that shows the log of the price level and {numref}`fr_fig8` -below that plots real balances $\frac{M_t}{p_t}$ into three periods that correspond to different monetary experiments or *regimes*. +我们已经将显示价格水平对数的 {numref}`fr_fig9` 和下方绘制实际余额 $\frac{M_t}{p_t}$ 的 {numref}`fr_fig8` 划分为三个时期，分别对应不同的货币实验或 *制度*。 -The first period ends in the late summer of 1793, and is characterized -by growing real balances and moderate inflation. +第一个时期结束于 1793 年夏末，其特点是实际余额不断增长，通货膨胀温和。 -The second period begins and ends -with the Terror. It is marked by high real balances, around 2,500 million, and -roughly stable prices. The fall of Robespierre in late July 1794 begins the third -of our episodes, in which real balances decline and prices rise rapidly. +第二个时期始于恐怖时期，也以恐怖时期结束。其特点是实际余额较高，约为 25 亿，价格大致稳定。1794 年 7 月下旬罗伯斯庇尔的倒台开启了我们的第三个时期，其中实际余额下降，价格迅速上涨。 -We interpret -these three episodes in terms of distinct theories -* a *backing* or *real bills* theory (the classic text for this theory is Adam Smith {cite}`smith2010wealth`) -* a legal restrictions theory ( {cite}`keynes1940pay`, {cite}`bryant1984price` ) -* a classical hyperinflation theory ({cite}`Cagan`) -* +我们用不同的理论来解释这三个事件 + +* *背书*或*真实票据*理论（该理论的经典文本是亚当·斯密{cite}`smith2010wealth`） +* 法律限制理论（{cite}`keynes1940pay`，{cite}`bryant1984price`） +* 经典恶性通货膨胀理论（{cite}`Cagan`） +* ```{note} -According to the empirical definition of hyperinflation adopted by {cite}`Cagan`, -beginning in the month that inflation exceeds 50 percent -per month and ending in the month before inflation drops below 50 percent per month -for at least a year, the *assignat* experienced a hyperinflation from May to December -1795. +根据{cite}`Cagan`采用的恶性通货膨胀的经验定义， +从通货膨胀率超过每月 50% 的月份开始，到通货膨胀率降至每月 50% 以下的月份结束，至少持续一年，*assignat* 从 1795 年 5 月到 12 月经历了恶性通货膨胀。 ``` -We view these -theories not as competitors but as alternative collections of ''if-then'' -statements about government note issues, each of which finds its conditions more -nearly met in one of these episodes than in the other two. + +我们并不将这些理论视为竞争对手，而是将其视为关于政府票据发行的“如果-那么”的集合，每个理论都有其更接近现实条件的地方 -- 即，更接近满足”如果“的地方。 ```{code-cell} ipython3 --- mystnb: figure: - caption: "Real balances of assignats (in gold and goods)" + caption: "\u6307\u5238\u5B9E\u9645\u4F59\u989D\uFF08\u4EE5\u9EC4\u91D1\u548C\u5546\ + \u54C1\u8BA1\uFF09" name: fr_fig8 --- # Read the data from Excel file @@ -672,34 +633,26 @@ plt.gca().spines['right'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().set_facecolor('white') plt.gca().tick_params(labelsize=12) plt.xlim(pd.Timestamp('1789-11-01'), pd.Timestamp('1796-06-01')) -plt.ylabel('millions of livres', fontsize=12) +plt.ylabel('百万里弗', fontsize=12) # Add text annotations -plt.text(pd.Timestamp('1793-09-01'), 200, 'Terror', fontsize=12) -plt.text(pd.Timestamp('1791-05-01'), 750, 'gold value', fontsize=12) -plt.text(pd.Timestamp('1794-10-01'), 2500, 'real value', fontsize=12) - +plt.text(pd.Timestamp('1793-09-01'), 200, '“恐怖时期”', fontsize=12) +plt.text(pd.Timestamp('1791-05-01'), 750, '黄金水平', fontsize=12) +plt.text(pd.Timestamp('1794-10-01'), 2500, '真实价值', fontsize=12) plt.tight_layout() plt.show() ``` -The three clouds of points in Figure -{numref}`fr_fig104` - depict different real balance-inflation relationships. - -Only the cloud for the -third period has the inverse relationship familiar to us now from twentieth-century -hyperinflations. - +图{numref}`fr_fig104`中的三个聚集点描绘了不同的实际余额-通货膨胀关系。 +只有第三个时期的点具有我们现在熟悉的二十世纪恶性通货膨胀的逆向关系。 +* 子时期 1：（“*实票据*时期）：1791 年 1 月至 1793 年 7 月 -* subperiod 1: ("*real bills* period): January 1791 to July 1793 +* 子时期 2：（“恐怖”）：1793 年 8 月 - 1794 年 7 月 -* subperiod 2: ("terror"): August 1793 - July 1794 - -* subperiod 3: ("classic Cagan hyperinflation"): August 1794 - March 1796 +* 子时期 3：（“经典Cagen恶性通货膨胀”）：1794 年 8 月 - 1796 年 3 月 ```{code-cell} ipython3 def fit(x, y): @@ -711,7 +664,7 @@ def fit(x, y): ``` ```{code-cell} ipython3 -# Load data +# 加载数据 caron = np.load('datasets/caron.npy') nom_balances = np.load('datasets/nom_balances.npy') @@ -721,12 +674,12 @@ bal = nom_balances[14:77, 1] * caron[:, 1] / 1000 ``` ```{code-cell} ipython3 -# Regress y on x for three periods +# 为三个时期回归 y 对 x a1, b1 = fit(bal[1:31], infl[1:31]) a2, b2 = fit(bal[31:44], infl[31:44]) a3, b3 = fit(bal[44:63], infl[44:63]) -# Regress x on y for three periods +# 为三个时期回归 x 对 y a1_rev, b1_rev = fit(infl[1:31], bal[1:31]) a2_rev, b2_rev = fit(infl[31:44], bal[31:44]) a3_rev, b3_rev = fit(infl[44:63], bal[44:63]) @@ -736,261 +689,232 @@ a3_rev, b3_rev = fit(infl[44:63], bal[44:63]) --- mystnb: figure: - caption: "Inflation and Real Balances" + caption: "\u901A\u8D27\u81A8\u80C0\u548C\u5B9E\u9645\u4F59\u989D" name: fr_fig104 --- plt.figure() plt.gca().spines['top'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().spines['right'].set_visible(False) -# First subsample +# 第一个子样本 plt.plot(bal[1:31], infl[1:31], 'o', markerfacecolor='none', - color='blue', label='real bills period') + color='blue', label='实票据时期') -# Second subsample -plt.plot(bal[31:44], infl[31:44], '+', color='red', label='terror') +# 第二个子样本 +plt.plot(bal[31:44], infl[31:44], '+', color='red', label='恐怖时期') -# Third subsample +# 第三个子样本 plt.plot(bal[44:63], infl[44:63], '*', - color='orange', label='classic Cagan hyperinflation') + color='orange', label='经典的Cagan恶性通货膨胀') -plt.xlabel('real balances') -plt.ylabel('inflation') +plt.xlabel('实际余额') +plt.ylabel('通货膨胀') plt.legend() plt.tight_layout() plt.show() ``` -The three clouds of points in {numref}`fr_fig104` evidently - depict different real balance-inflation relationships. - -Only the cloud for the -third period has the inverse relationship familiar to us now from twentieth-century -hyperinflations. - - To bring this out, we'll use linear regressions to draw straight lines that compress the - inflation-real balance relationship for our three sub-periods. +在 {numref}`fr_fig104` 中三个点云明显代表了不同的实际余额-通货膨胀关系。 - Before we do that, we'll drop some of the early observations during the terror period - to obtain the following graph. +只有第三个时期的点云显示了我们现在从二十世纪的恶性通货膨胀中熟悉的反向关系。 -```{code-cell} ipython3 -# Regress y on x for three periods -a1, b1 = fit(bal[1:31], infl[1:31]) -a2, b2 = fit(bal[31:44], infl[31:44]) -a3, b3 = fit(bal[44:63], infl[44:63]) +为了突出这一点，我们将使用线性回归绘制直线来压缩我们三个子时期的通货膨胀-实际余额关系。 -# Regress x on y for three periods -a1_rev, b1_rev = fit(infl[1:31], bal[1:31]) -a2_rev, b2_rev = fit(infl[31:44], bal[31:44]) -a3_rev, b3_rev = fit(infl[44:63], bal[44:63]) -``` +在这样做之前，我们将删除恐怖时期早期的一些观察值，并绘制以下的图。 ```{code-cell} ipython3 --- mystnb: figure: - caption: "Inflation and Real Balances" + caption: "\u901A\u8D27\u81A8\u80C0\u548C\u5B9E\u9645\u4F59\u989D" name: fr_fig104b --- plt.figure() plt.gca().spines['top'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().spines['right'].set_visible(False) -# First subsample -plt.plot(bal[1:31], infl[1:31], 'o', markerfacecolor='none', color='blue', label='real bills period') +# 第一个子样本 +plt.plot(bal[1:31], infl[1:31], 'o', markerfacecolor='none', color='blue', label='实票据时期') -# Second subsample -plt.plot(bal[34:44], infl[34:44], '+', color='red', label='terror') +# 第二个子样本 +plt.plot(bal[34:44], infl[34:44], '+', color='red', label='恐怖时期') -# Third subsample -plt.plot(bal[44:63], infl[44:63], '*', color='orange', label='classic Cagan hyperinflation') +# 第三个子样本 +plt.plot(bal[44:63], infl[44:63], '*', color='orange', label='经典的Cagan恶性通货膨胀') -plt.xlabel('real balances') -plt.ylabel('inflation') +plt.xlabel('实际余额') +plt.ylabel('通货膨胀') plt.legend() plt.tight_layout() plt.show() ``` -Now let's regress inflation on real balances during the *real bills* period and plot the regression -line. +现在让我们回归*实票据*时期的通货膨胀对实际余额，并绘制回归直线。 ```{code-cell} ipython3 --- mystnb: figure: - caption: "Inflation and Real Balances" + caption: "\u901A\u8D27\u81A8\u80C0\u548C\u5B9E\u9645\u4F59\u989D" name: fr_fig104c --- plt.figure() plt.gca().spines['top'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().spines['right'].set_visible(False) -# First subsample +# 第一个子样本 plt.plot(bal[1:31], infl[1:31], 'o', markerfacecolor='none', - color='blue', label='real bills period') + color='blue', label='实票据时期') plt.plot(bal[1:31], a1 + bal[1:31] * b1, color='blue') -# Second subsample -plt.plot(bal[31:44], infl[31:44], '+', color='red', label='terror') +# 第二个子样本 +plt.plot(bal[31:44], infl[31:44], '+', color='red', label='恐怖时期') -# Third subsample +# 第三个子样本 plt.plot(bal[44:63], infl[44:63], '*', - color='orange', label='classic Cagan hyperinflation') + color='orange', label='经典的Cagan恶性通货膨胀') -plt.xlabel('real balances') -plt.ylabel('inflation') +plt.xlabel('实际余额') +plt.ylabel('通货膨胀') plt.legend() plt.tight_layout() plt.show() ``` -The regression line in {numref}`fr_fig104c` shows that large increases in real balances of -assignats (paper money) were accompanied by only modest rises in the price level, an outcome in line -with the *real bills* theory. +在 {numref}`fr_fig104c` 中的回归线显示，政府票据（纸币）的大幅增长只伴随着价格水平的适度上升，这一结果与*实票据*理论相符。 -During this period, assignats were claims on church lands. +在这段时期，政府票据是对教会土地的索赔。 -But towards the end of this period, the price level started to rise and real balances to fall -as the government continued to print money but stopped selling church land. +但在这段时期的末尾，随着政府继续印制货币但停止出售教会土地，价格水平开始上升和实际余额开始下降。 -To get people to hold that paper money, the government forced people to hold it by using legal restrictions. +为了让民众持有这种纸币，政府使用法律限制强制民众持有。 -Now let's regress real balances on inflation during the terror and plot the regression -line. +现在让我们在恐怖时期对实际余额进行回归，并绘制回归线。 ```{code-cell} ipython3 --- mystnb: figure: - caption: "Inflation and Real Balances" + caption: "\u901A\u8D27\u81A8\u80C0\u548C\u5B9E\u9645\u4F59\u989D" name: fr_fig104d --- plt.figure() plt.gca().spines['top'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().spines['right'].set_visible(False) -# First subsample +# 第一个子样本 plt.plot(bal[1:31], infl[1:31], 'o', markerfacecolor='none', - color='blue', label='real bills period') + color='blue', label='实票据时期') -# Second subsample -plt.plot(bal[31:44], infl[31:44], '+', color='red', label='terror') +# 第二个子样本 +plt.plot(bal[31:44], infl[31:44], '+', color='red', label='恐怖时期') plt.plot(a2_rev + b2_rev * infl[31:44], infl[31:44], color='red') -# Third subsample +# 第三个子样本 plt.plot(bal[44:63], infl[44:63], '*', - color='orange', label='classic Cagan hyperinflation') + color='orange', label='经典的Cagan恶性通货膨胀') -plt.xlabel('real balances') -plt.ylabel('inflation') +plt.xlabel('实际余额') +plt.ylabel('通货膨胀') plt.legend() plt.tight_layout() plt.show() ``` -The regression line in {numref}`fr_fig104d` shows that large increases in real balances of -assignats (paper money) were accompanied by little upward price level pressure, even some declines in prices. +在 {numref}`fr_fig104d` 中的回归线显示，在*恐怖*时期，政府票据（纸币）的大幅增加与价格水平的少量上升甚至是价格下降相伴随。 -This reflects how well legal restrictions -- financial repression -- was working during the period of the Terror. +这反映出在恐怖时期，法律限制--财政压制--运作得很好。 -But the Terror ended in July 1794. That unleashed a big inflation as people tried to find other ways to transact and store values. +但是恐怖时期在1794年7月结束。这导致了大规模的通货膨胀，因为人们试图找到其他交易和储存价值的方式。 -The following two graphs are for the classical hyperinflation period. - -One regresses inflation on real balances, the other regresses real balances on inflation. - -Both show a prounced inverse relationship that is the hallmark of the hyperinflations studied by -Cagan {cite}`Cagan`. +下面的两个图表是关于经典恶性通货膨胀时期的。 ```{code-cell} ipython3 --- mystnb: figure: - caption: "Inflation and Real Balances" + caption: "通货膨胀和实际余额" name: fr_fig104e --- plt.figure() plt.gca().spines['top'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().spines['right'].set_visible(False) -# First subsample +# 第一个子样本 plt.plot(bal[1:31], infl[1:31], 'o', markerfacecolor='none', - color='blue', label='real bills period') + color='blue', label='实票据时期') -# Second subsample -plt.plot(bal[31:44], infl[31:44], '+', color='red', label='terror') +# 第二个子样本 +plt.plot(bal[31:44], infl[31:44], '+', color='red', label='恐怖时期') -# Third subsample +# 第三个子样本 plt.plot(bal[44:63], infl[44:63], '*', - color='orange', label='classic Cagan hyperinflation') + color='orange', label='经典的Cagan恶性通货膨胀') plt.plot(bal[44:63], a3 + bal[44:63] * b3, color='orange') - plt.xlabel('real balances') plt.ylabel('inflation') plt.legend() - plt.tight_layout() plt.show() ``` -{numref}`fr_fig104e` shows the results of regressing inflation on real balances during the -period of the hyperinflation. +一个是以实际余额为因素，通货膨胀为结果进行回归的，另一个是以通货膨胀为因素，实际余额为结果进行回归的。 + +两者都显示了一个明显的反向关系，这是Cagan {cite}`Cagan` 研究的恶性通货膨胀的特征。 +{numref}`fr_fig104e` 展示了在超通货膨胀期间，对实际余额对通货膨胀进行回归的结果。 ```{code-cell} ipython3 --- mystnb: figure: - caption: "Inflation and Real Balances" + caption: "\u901A\u8D27\u81A8\u80C0\u548C\u5B9E\u9645\u4F59\u989D" name: fr_fig104f --- plt.figure() plt.gca().spines['top'].set_visible(False) plt.gca().spines['right'].set_visible(False) -# First subsample +# 第一个子样本 plt.plot(bal[1:31], infl[1:31], 'o', - markerfacecolor='none', color='blue', label='real bills period') + markerfacecolor='none', color='blue', label='实票据时期') -# Second subsample -plt.plot(bal[31:44], infl[31:44], '+', color='red', label='terror') +# 第二个子样本 +plt.plot(bal[31:44], infl[31:44], '+', color='red', label='恐怖时期') -# Third subsample +# 第三个子样本 plt.plot(bal[44:63], infl[44:63], '*', - color='orange', label='classic Cagan hyperinflation') + color='orange', label='经典的Cagan恶性通货膨胀') plt.plot(a3_rev + b3_rev * infl[44:63], infl[44:63], color='orange') -plt.xlabel('real balances') -plt.ylabel('inflation') +plt.xlabel('实际余额') +plt.ylabel('通货膨胀') plt.legend() plt.tight_layout() plt.show() ``` -{numref}`fr_fig104e` shows the results of regressing real money balances on inflation during the -period of the hyperinflation. +{numref}`fr_fig104e` 展示了在超通货膨胀期间，对通货膨胀对实际余额进行回归的结果。 -## Hyperinflation Ends +## 超通货膨胀终结 -{cite}`sargent_velde1995` tell how in 1797 the Revolutionary government abruptly ended the inflation by +{cite}`sargent_velde1995` 记载，1797年革命政府突然终止了通货膨胀，通过 - * repudiating 2/3 of the national debt, and thereby - * eliminating the net-of-interest government defict - * no longer printing money, but instead - * using gold and silver coins as money + * 否认了2/3的国家债务，并因此 + * 消除了政府的净利息赤字 + * 停止印刷货币，而是 + * 使用金币和银币作为货币 -In 1799, Napoleon Bonaparte became first consul and for the next 15 years used resources confiscated from conquered territories to help pay for French government expenditures. +1799年，拿破仑·波拿巴成为首席执政官，并在接下来的15年使用掠夺的地区资源帮助支付法国政府的开支。 -## Underlying Theories +## 理论基础 -This lecture sets the stage for studying theories of inflation and the government monetary and fiscal policies that bring it about. +本讲为研究通货膨胀理论以及导致其的政府货币和财政政策做了铺垫。 -A *monetarist theory of the price level* is described in this quantecon lecture {doc}`cagan_ree`. +这里描述了一个*货币主义的价格水平理论*，我们会在在 {doc}`cagan_ree` 中了解更多。 -That lecture sets the stage for these quantecon lectures {doc}`money_inflation` and {doc}`unpleasant`. +本讲也为 {doc}`money_inflation` 和 {doc}`unpleasant` 做了铺垫。