Future Derivatives Loss Risk Analysis version 2.ipynb

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       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
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       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>F_USDTRY0423 Contract Price</th>\n",
       "      <th>Free Money in Account</th>\n",
       "      <th>Contract Amount</th>\n",
       "      <th>Initial Investment</th>\n",
       "      <th>Total Capital</th>\n",
       "      <th>Contract Size by USD</th>\n",
       "      <th>Changing Contract Price</th>\n",
       "      <th>Total Size of Investment by TRY</th>\n",
       "      <th>Leverage Rate</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>2665</td>\n",
       "      <td>5330.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>10660</td>\n",
       "      <td>15990.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4000</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.9795</td>\n",
       "      <td>75918.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.121764</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>2665</td>\n",
       "      <td>5130.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>10660</td>\n",
       "      <td>15790.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4000</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.9295</td>\n",
       "      <td>75718.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.121764</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>2665</td>\n",
       "      <td>4930.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>10660</td>\n",
       "      <td>15590.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4000</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.8795</td>\n",
       "      <td>75518.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.121764</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>2665</td>\n",
       "      <td>4730.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>10660</td>\n",
       "      <td>15390.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4000</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.8295</td>\n",
       "      <td>75318.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.121764</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>2665</td>\n",
       "      <td>4530.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>10660</td>\n",
       "      <td>15190.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4000</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.7795</td>\n",
       "      <td>75118.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.121764</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
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      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   F_USDTRY0423 Contract Price  Free Money in Account  Contract Amount  \\\n",
       "0                         2665                 5330.0                4   \n",
       "1                         2665                 5130.0                4   \n",
       "2                         2665                 4930.0                4   \n",
       "3                         2665                 4730.0                4   \n",
       "4                         2665                 4530.0                4   \n",
       "\n",
       "   Initial Investment  Total Capital  Contract Size by USD  \\\n",
       "0               10660        15990.0                  4000   \n",
       "1               10660        15790.0                  4000   \n",
       "2               10660        15590.0                  4000   \n",
       "3               10660        15390.0                  4000   \n",
       "4               10660        15190.0                  4000   \n",
       "\n",
       "   Changing Contract Price  Total Size of Investment by TRY  Leverage Rate  \n",
       "0                  18.9795                          75918.0       7.121764  \n",
       "1                  18.9295                          75718.0       7.121764  \n",
       "2                  18.8795                          75518.0       7.121764  \n",
       "3                  18.8295                          75318.0       7.121764  \n",
       "4                  18.7795                          75118.0       7.121764  "
      ]
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   "source": [
    "#Author: Alihan Uçar\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "\n",
    "def future_loss_analysis(contract_price, contract_amount, market_price_contract):\n",
    "    # Calculate initial variables\n",
    "    free_money = 2 * contract_price\n",
    "    initial_investment = contract_amount * contract_price\n",
    "    contract_size_usd = contract_amount * contract_multiplier\n",
    "    total_size_investment_try = contract_size_usd * market_price_contract\n",
    "    leverage_rate = total_size_investment_try / initial_investment\n",
    "\n",
    "    # Create initial dataframe\n",
    "    data = {'F_USDTRY0423 Contract Price': [contract_price], \n",
    "            'Free Money in Account': [free_money], \n",
    "            'Contract Amount': [contract_amount], \n",
    "            'Initial Investment': [initial_investment], \n",
    "            'Total Capital': [free_money + initial_investment], \n",
    "            'Contract Size by USD': [contract_size_usd], \n",
    "            'Changing Contract Price': [market_price_contract], \n",
    "            'Total Size of Investment by TRY': [total_size_investment_try], \n",
    "            'Leverage Rate': [leverage_rate]}\n",
    "    df = pd.DataFrame(data)\n",
    "\n",
    "    # Calculate data for future prices\n",
    "    while contract_amount > 0:\n",
    "        new_price = market_price_contract - 0.05\n",
    "        new_total_size_investment_try = contract_size_usd * new_price\n",
    "        free_money -= (total_size_investment_try - new_total_size_investment_try)\n",
    "        \n",
    "        # Adjust contract amount if not enough free money\n",
    "        while free_money < 0:\n",
    "            contract_amount -= 1\n",
    "            free_money += contract_price\n",
    "            contract_size_usd = contract_amount * 1000\n",
    "            new_total_size_investment_try = contract_size_usd * new_price\n",
    "        \n",
    "        # Calculate new investment and leverage rate\n",
    "        new_investment = contract_amount * contract_price\n",
    "        new_leverage_rate = leverage_rate\n",
    "        \n",
    "        # Create new row for dataframe and append to df\n",
    "        new_row = pd.DataFrame({'F_USDTRY0423 Contract Price': [contract_price], \n",
    "                                'Free Money in Account': [free_money], \n",
    "                                'Contract Amount': [contract_amount], \n",
    "                                'Initial Investment': [new_investment], \n",
    "                                'Total Capital': [free_money + new_investment], \n",
    "                                'Contract Size by USD': [contract_size_usd], \n",
    "                                'Changing Contract Price': [new_price], \n",
    "                                'Total Size of Investment by TRY': [new_total_size_investment_try], \n",
    "                                'Leverage Rate': [new_leverage_rate]})\n",
    "        df = pd.concat([df, new_row], ignore_index=True)\n",
    "        market_price_contract = new_price\n",
    "        total_size_investment_try = new_total_size_investment_try\n",
    "\n",
    "    return df\n",
    "\n",
    "# Example usage\n",
    "contract_price = 2665\n",
    "contract_amount = 4\n",
    "market_price_contract = 18.9795\n",
    "\n",
    "# 1 USD/TRY Contract equal 1000 USD size position\n",
    "contract_multiplier = 1000\n",
    "\n",
    "# Call the function, save the dataframe as an excel and show the first 5 rows of the dataframe.\n",
    "df = future_loss_analysis(contract_price, contract_amount, market_price_contract)\n",
    "df.to_excel('USDTRY_future_investment_risk.xlsx', index=False)\n",
    "df.head()\n"
   ]
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