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01TR-p4-m2.R
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01TR-p4-m2.R
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rm(list = ls())
options(echo=TRUE)
source("./00codes/B-SVAR-MSH-identified/B-SVAR-MSH-identified-source.R")
source("./00codes/EM-MSVAR/Caspur-MSVAR-source-EM.R")
load("dataBI2015.RData")
set.seed(1234567)
Y=100*Y
p = 4
N = dim(Y)[2]
T = dim(Y)[1]
TT = T - p
M = 2
model = "tr"
# Belongia & Ireland (2015,JBES) Taylor Rule
r = 12
restrictions = list(
Q = matrix(0, N^2, r),
q = matrix(diag(N), ncol=1)
)
restrictions$Q[2:4,1:3] = diag(3)
restrictions$Q[6,10] = -1
restrictions$Q[9:11,4:6] = diag(3)
restrictions$Q[21:21,7:7] = diag(1)
restrictions$Q[24:24,8:8] = diag(1)
restrictions$Q[27:27,9:9] = diag(1)
restrictions$Q[30:30,10:10] = diag(1)
restrictions$Q[33:33,11:11] = diag(1)
restrictions$Q[35:35,12:12] = diag(1)
restrictions$q[5,] = -1
# restrictions$Q
# a = rnorm(r)
# A0 = matrix(restrictions$Q%*%a + restrictions$q, ncol=N, nrow=N)
# For Transition probabilities
restrictions$M = diag(M^2)
restrictions$dj = seq(from=M, to=M, length.out=M)
P = matrix(0, p*N, N)
P[1:N,] = diag(N)
H.tmp = rep(0,0)
for (i in 1:p) {H.tmp = c(H.tmp, rep(1/(i^2), N))}
H = diag(H.tmp)
priors = list(
beta.P = P,
beta.H = H,
lambda.a = 1,
lambda.b = 1,
omega.a = 1,
omega.b = 3,
hyper.a = 1,
hyper.b = 1,
w = matrix(9 * diag(M) + matrix(1,M,M),ncol=1) # Priors: Hidden Markov Chain, transition probabilities
)
C = 0.1
# starting.values = B.SVAR.MSH.VW.identified.initialization(Y, p, M, restrictions, which.Sigma=1)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=100, priors, restrictions, starting.values, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq1 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq2 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq1$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq1,qqq2,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-01.RData", sep=""))
#
# rm(qqq1)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq3 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq2$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq2)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq4 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq3$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq3,qqq4,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-02.RData", sep=""))
#
# rm(qqq3)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq5 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq4$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq4)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq6 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq5$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq5,qqq6,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-03.RData", sep=""))
# load(paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-03.RData", sep=""))
# rm(qqq5)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq1 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq6$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq6)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq2 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq1$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq1,qqq2,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-04.RData", sep=""))
#
#
# rm(qqq1)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq3 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq2$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq2)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq4 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq3$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq3,qqq4,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-05.RData", sep=""))
#
# rm(qqq3)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq5 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq4$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq4)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq6 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq5$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq5,qqq6,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-06.RData", sep=""))
#
#
#
# rm(qqq5)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq1 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq6$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq6)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq2 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq1$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq1,qqq2,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-07.RData", sep=""))
#
# rm(qqq1)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq3 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq2$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq2)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq4 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq3$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq3,qqq4,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-08.RData", sep=""))
#
# rm(qqq3)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq5 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq4$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq4)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq6 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq5$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq5,qqq6,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-09.RData", sep=""))
#
# load(paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-09.RData", sep=""))
# rm(qqq5)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq1 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq6$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq6)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq2 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq1$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq1,qqq2,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-10.RData", sep=""))
#
# rm(qqq1)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq3 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq2$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq2)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq4 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq3$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq3,qqq4,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-11.RData", sep=""))
#
# rm(qqq3)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq5 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq4$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq4)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq6 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq5$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq5,qqq6,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-12.RData", sep=""))
#
#
# rm(qqq5)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq1 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq6$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq6)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq2 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq1$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq1,qqq2,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-13.RData", sep=""))
#
# rm(qqq1)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq3 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq2$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq2)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq4 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq3$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq3,qqq4,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-14.RData", sep=""))
#
#
# rm(qqq3)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq5 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq4$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq4)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq6 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq5$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq5,qqq6,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-15.RData", sep=""))
#
#
#
#
#
# rm(qqq5)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq1 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq6$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq6)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq2 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq1$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq1,qqq2,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-16.RData", sep=""))
#
# rm(qqq1)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq3 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq2$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq2)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq4 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq3$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq3,qqq4,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-17.RData", sep=""))
#
#
# rm(qqq3)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq5 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq4$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq4)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq6 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq5$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq5,qqq6,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-18.RData", sep=""))
#
#
#
#
# rm(qqq5)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq1 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq6$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq6)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq2 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq1$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq1,qqq2,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-19.RData", sep=""))
#
# rm(qqq1)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq3 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq2$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq2)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq4 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq3$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq3,qqq4,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-20.RData", sep=""))
#
#
# rm(qqq3)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq5 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq4$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
#
# rm(qqq4)
# t.0 = proc.time()
# qqq6 = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.Gibbs(S=200000, priors, restrictions, starting.values=qqq5$last.draws, debug=FALSE, print.iterations=100, C=C)
# t.1 = proc.time() ;
# t.for.time = (t.1-t.0)/60
# save(qqq5,qqq6,priors,restrictions,starting.values,Y,t.for.time, file = paste("./00estimation/tr-p",p,"-M",M,"-21.RData", sep=""))
load(paste("./00estimation/",model,"-p",p,"-M",M,"-13.RData", sep=""))
qqq = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.merge(B.SVAR.MSH.identified.short.mcmc(qqq1,keep.every=10),B.SVAR.MSH.identified.short.mcmc(qqq2,keep.every=10))
rm(qqq1,qqq2)
load(paste("./00estimation/",model,"-p",p,"-M",M,"-14.RData", sep=""))
qqq = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.merge(qqq,B.SVAR.MSH.identified.short.mcmc(qqq3,keep.every=10))
qqq = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.merge(qqq,B.SVAR.MSH.identified.short.mcmc(qqq4,keep.every=10))
rm(qqq3,qqq4)
load(paste("./00estimation/",model,"-p",p,"-M",M,"-15.RData", sep=""))
qqq = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.merge(qqq,B.SVAR.MSH.identified.short.mcmc(qqq5,keep.every=10))
qqq = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.merge(qqq,B.SVAR.MSH.identified.short.mcmc(qqq6,keep.every=10))
rm(qqq5,qqq6)
t0 = proc.time()
log.mdd = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.MDD(Sp=100000,Gibbs.output=qqq, priors, restrictions)
t1 = proc.time()
t.for.time = (t1-t0)[3]
log.sddr = B.SVAR.MSH.identified.SDDR(qqq=qqq,priors)
save(log.sddr,log.mdd,qqq,priors,restrictions, file = paste("./00estimation/",model,"-p",p,"-M",M,".RData", sep=""))