Earthquake Magician_JMKII_RCode.Rmd

---
title: "Earthquake Magician"
author: "Jan Kärstens"
output: html_document
---

```{r setup, include=FALSE}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(echo = TRUE)
```

Magician Michelle says that she can predict large megathrust
earthquakes... well, at least 95% of the time. Assume that these
earthquakes occur with a probability of 10^???5.How likely will
Michelle cause a false alarm with her next prediction?

```{r cars}


# Probabilities
P_m <- 0.95
P_mc <- 1-P_m
P_e <- (10^-5)
P_ec <- 1-P_e

# Calculating products of Posteriors
P_ec_mc <- P_ec * P_mc
P_ec_m <- P_ec * P_m

#Calculating wanted probability
P_mc_ec <- (P_ec_mc * P_mc) / ((P_ec_mc * P_mc) + (P_ec_m * P_m))
returnValue(P_mc_ec)

```