allrefs.bib

@article{allen02,
   author = {Allen, Myles R. and Ingram, William J.},
   title = {{Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle}},
   journal = {Nature},
   volume = {419},
   number = {6903},
   pages = {224-232},
   note = {10.1038/nature01092},
   year = {2002}
}

@article{ammann10,
author = {Ammann, Caspar M. and Washington, Warren M. and Meehl, Gerald A. and Buja, Lawrence and Teng, Haiyan},
title = {Climate engineering through artificial enhancement of natural forcings: Magnitudes and implied consequences},
journal = {J. Geophys. Res.},
volume = {115},
number = {D22},
pages = {D22109},
note = {doi:10.1029/2009JD012878},
abstract = {Explosive volcanism and solar activity changes have modulated the Earth's temperature over short and century time scales. Associated with these external forcings were systematic changes in circulation. Here, we explore the effect of similar but artificially induced forcings that mimic natural radiative perturbations in order to stabilize surface climate. Injection of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, not unlike the effects from large volcanic eruptions, and a direct reduction of insolation, similar to total solar irradiance changes, are tested in their effectiveness to offset global mean temperature rise resulting from a business-as-usual scenario, thereby reducing surface temperatures to conditions associated with committed warming of a year 2000 stabilization scenario. This study uses a coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model to illustrate the character of resulting climate and circulation anomalies when both enhanced greenhouse (A2 scenario) and opposing geoengineering perturbations are considered. First we quantify the magnitude of the required perturbation and compare these artificial perturbations to the natural range of the respective forcing. Then, we test the effectiveness of the “correction” by looking at the regional climate response to the combined forcing. It is shown that widespread warming could be reduced, but overcompensation in the tropics is necessary because sea ice loss in high latitudes cannot be reversed effectively to overcome higher ocean heat content and enhanced zonal winter circulation as well as the continuous IR forcing. The magnitude of new, greenhouse gas-countering anthropogenic forcing would have to be much larger than what natural forcing from volcanoes and solar irradiance variability commonly provide.},
keywords = {geoengineering
climate change
natural forcing
3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability
1626 Global Change: Global climate models
1637 Global Change: Regional climate change
0370 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Volcanic effects
1650 Global Change: Solar variability},
year = {2010}
}

@article{angel06,
   author = {Angel, Roger},
   title = {Feasibility of cooling the Earth with a cloud of small spacecraft near the inner Lagrange point (L1)},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
   volume = {103},
   number = {46},
   pages = {17184-17189},
   ISSN = {0027-8424},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{archer05,
   author = {Archer, David},
   title = {Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (1978úÄì2012)},
   volume = {110},
   number = {C9},
   ISSN = {2156-2202},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{armour11,
author = {Armour, K. C. and Roe, G. H.},
title = {{Climate commitment in an uncertain world}},
journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},
volume = {38},
number = {1},
pages = {L01707},
note = {doi:10.1029/2010GL045850},
abstract = {Climate commitment --- €”the warming that would still occur given no further human influence --- €”is a fundamental metric for both science and policy. It informs us of the minimum climate change we face and, moreover, depends only on our knowledge of the natural climate system. Studies of the climate commitment due to CO2 find that global temperature would remain near current levels, or even decrease slightly, in the millennium following the cessation of emissions. However, this result overlooks the important role of the non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols. This paper shows that global energetics require an immediate and significant warming following the cessation of emissions as aerosols are quickly washed from the atmosphere, and the large uncertainty in current aerosol radiative forcing implies a large uncertainty in the climate commitment. Fundamental constraints preclude Earth returning to pre-industrial temperatures for the indefinite future. These same constraints mean that observations are currently unable to eliminate the possibility that we are already beyond the point where the ultimate warming will exceed dangerous levels. Models produce a narrower range of climate commitment, but undersample observed forcing constraints.},
keywords = {climate commitment
committed warming
1699 Global Change: General or miscellaneous},
year = {2011}
}

@article{armour11b,
   author = {Armour, K. C. and Eisenman, I. and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E. and McCusker, K. E. and Bitz, C. M.},
   title = {The reversibility of sea ice loss in a state-of-the-art climate model},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {38},
   number = {16},
   pages = {L16705},
   ISSN = {1944-8007},
   DOI = {10.1029/2011GL048739},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048739},
   year = {2011b},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{arora11,
  title={Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases},
  author={Arora, VK and Scinocca, JF and Boer, GJ and Christian, JR and Denman, KL and Flato, GM and Kharin, VV and Lee, WG and Merryfield, WJ},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
  volume={38},
  number={5},
  year={2011},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{arrhenius1896,
   author = {Arrhenius, Svante},
   title = {XXXI. On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground},
   journal = {The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science},
   volume = {41},
   number = {251},
   pages = {237-276},
   ISSN = {1941-5982},
   year = {1896},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{arrhenius1908,
   author = {Arrhenius, Svante},
   title = {Worlds in the making: the evolution of the universe},
   publisher = {Harper \& brothers},
   year = {1908},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{baker09,
author = {Baker, Marcia B. and Roe, Gerard H.},
title = {The Shape of Things to Come: Why Is Climate Change So Predictable?},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
volume = {22},
number = {17},
pages = {4574-4589},
year = {2009}
}

@article{bala08,
   author = {Bala, G. and Duffy, P. B. and Taylor, K. E.},
   title = {{Impact of geoengineering schemes on the global hydrological cycle}},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
   volume = {105},
   number = {22},
   pages = {7664-7669},
   abstract = {The rapidly rising CO level in the atmosphere has led to proposals of climate stabilization by “geoengineering” schemes that would mitigate climate change by intentionally reducing solar radiation incident on Earth's surface. In this article we address the impact of these climate stabilization schemes on the global hydrological cycle. By using equilibrium climate simulations, we show that insolation reductions sufficient to offset global-scale temperature increases lead to a decrease in global mean precipitation. This occurs because solar forcing is more effective in driving changes in global mean evaporation than is CO forcing of a similar magnitude. In the model used here, the hydrological sensitivity, defined as the percentage change in global mean precipitation per degree warming, is 2.4\% K for solar forcing, but only 1.5\% K for CO forcing. Although other models and the climate system itself may differ quantitatively from this result, the conclusion can be understood based on simple considerations of the surface energy budget and thus is likely to be robust. For the same surface temperature change, insolation changes result in relatively larger changes in net radiative fluxes at the surface; these are compensated by larger changes in the sum of latent and sensible heat fluxes. Hence, the hydrological cycle is more sensitive to temperature adjustment by changes in insolation than by changes in greenhouse gases. This implies that an alteration in solar forcing might offset temperature changes or hydrological changes from greenhouse warming, but could not cancel both at once.},
   year = {2008}
}

@article{bala09,
   author = {Bala, Govindasamy and Caldeira, K. and Nemani, R.},
   title = {{Fast versus slow response in climate change: implications for the global hydrological cycle}},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   abstract = {Recent studies have shown that changes in global mean precipitation are larger for solar forcing than for CO2 forcing of similar magnitude. In this paper, we use an atmospheric general circulation model to show that the differences originate from differing fast responses of the climate system. We estimate the adjusted radiative forcing and fast response using Hansen'€™s `€œfixed-SST forcing'€ method. Total climate system response is calculated using mixed layer simulations using the same model. Our analysis shows that the fast response is almost 40\% of the total response for few key variables like precipitation and evaporation. We further demonstrate that the hydrologic sensitivity, defined as the change in global mean precipitation per unit warming, is the same for the two forcings when the fast responses are excluded from the definition of hydrologic sensitivity, suggesting that the slow response (feedback) of the hydrological cycle is independent of the forcing mechanism. Based on our results, we recommend that the fast and slow response be compared separately in multi-model intercomparisons to discover and understand robust responses in hydrologic cycle. The significance of this study to geoengineering is discussed.},
  year = {2009}
}

@article {balmaseda13,
author = {Balmaseda, Magdalena A. and Trenberth, Kevin E. and Källén, Erland},
title = {Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {40},
number = {9},
issn = {1944-8007},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/grl.50382},
doi = {10.1002/grl.50382},
pages = {1754--1759},
keywords = {ocean heat content, ocean reanalyses, global warming, climate variability, climate trends, ENSO},
year = {2013},
}


@article{banweiss10,
author = {Ban-Weiss, George A. and Ken Caldeira},
title = {Geoengineering as an optimization problem},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
volume = {5},
number = {3},
pages = {034009},
abstract = {There is increasing evidence that Earth's climate is currently warming, primarily due to emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities, and Earth has been projected to continue warming throughout this century. Scientists have begun to investigate the potential for geoengineering options for reducing surface temperatures and whether such options could possibly contribute to environmental risk reduction. One proposed method involves deliberately increasing aerosol loading in the stratosphere to scatter additional sunlight to space. Previous modeling studies have attempted to predict the climate consequences of hypothetical aerosol additions to the stratosphere. These studies have shown that this method could potentially reduce surface temperatures, but could not recreate a low-CO 2 climate in a high-CO 2 world. In this study, we attempt to determine the latitudinal distribution of stratospheric aerosols that would most closely achieve a low-CO 2 climate despite high CO 2 levels. Using the NCAR CAM3.1 general circulation model, we find that having a stratospheric aerosol loading in polar regions higher than that in tropical regions leads to a temperature distribution that is more similar to the low-CO 2 climate than that yielded by a globally uniform loading. However, such polar weighting of stratospheric sulfate tends to degrade the degree to which the hydrological cycle is restored, and thus does not markedly contribute to improved recovery of a low-CO 2 climate. In the model, the optimal latitudinally varying aerosol distributions diminished the rms zonal mean land temperature change from a doubling of CO 2 by 94\% and the rms zonal mean land precipitation minus evaporation change by 74\%. It is important to note that this idealized study represents a first attempt at optimizing the engineering of climate using a general circulation model; uncertainties are high and not all processes that are important in reality are modeled.},
year = {2010}
}

@article{barrett08,
   author = {Barrett, Scott},
   title = {The incredible economics of geoengineering},
   journal = {Environmental and Resource Economics},
   volume = {39},
   number = {1},
   pages = {45-54},
   ISSN = {0924-6460},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{barsugli98,
   author = {Barsugli, Joseph J. and Battisti, David S.},
   title = {{The Basic Effects of Atmosphere-Ocean Thermal Coupling on Midlatitude Variability*}},
   journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
   volume = {55},
   number = {4},
   pages = {477-493},
   abstract = {Starting from the assumption that the atmosphere is the primary source of variability internal to the midlatitude atmosphere–ocean system on intraseasonal to interannual timescales, the authors construct a simple stochastically forced, one-dimensional, linear, coupled energy balance model. The coupled system is then dissected into partially coupled and uncoupled systems in order to quantify the effects of coupling. The simplicity of the model allows for analytic evaluation of many quantities of interest, including power spectra, total variance, lag covariance between atmosphere and ocean, and surface flux spectra. The model predicts that coupling between the atmosphere and ocean in the midlatitudes will enhance the variance in both media and will decrease the energy flux between the atmosphere and the ocean. The model also demonstrates that specification of historical midlatitude sea surface temperature anomalies as a boundary condition for an atmospheric model will not generally lead to a correct simulation of low-frequency atmospheric thermal variance. This model provides a simple conceptual framework for understanding the basic aspects of midlatitude coupled variability. Given the simplicity of the model, it agrees well with numerical simulations using a two-level atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean. The simple model results are also qualitatively consistent with the results obtained in several other studies in which investigators coupled realistic atmospheric general circulation models to ocean models of varying complexity. This suggests that the experimental design of an atmospheric model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model would provide a reasonable null hypothesis against which to test for the presence of distinctive decadal variability.},
   year = {1998}
}

@article{battisti09,
   author = {Battisti, David. S. and Naylor, Rosamond L.},
   title = {{Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat}},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {323},
   number = {5911},
   pages = {240-244},
   abstract = {Higher growing season temperatures can have dramatic impacts on agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and food security. We used observational data and output from 23 global climate models to show a high probability (>90\%) that growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics by the end of the 21st century will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006. In temperate regions, the hottest seasons on record will represent the future norm in many locations. We used historical examples to illustrate the magnitude of damage to food systems caused by extreme seasonal heat and show that these short-run events could become long-term trends without sufficient investments in adaptation.},
   year = {2009}
}

@article{bell08,
   author = {Bell, Graham and Collins, Sinº©ad},
   title = {Adaptation, extinction and global change},
   journal = {Evolutionary Applications},
   volume = {1},
   number = {1},
   pages = {3-16},
   ISSN = {1752-4571},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{bewick12,
   author = {Bewick, Russell and Sanchez, JP and McInnes, CR},
   title = {The feasibility of using an L< sub> 1</sub> positioned dust cloud as a method of space-based geoengineering},
   journal = {Advances in Space Research},
   volume = {49},
   number = {7},
   pages = {1212-1228},
   ISSN = {0273-1177},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{bindoff07,
author = {Bindoff, N.L. and Willebrand, J. and Artale, V. and  A, Cazenave and Gregory, J. and Gulev, S. and Hanawa, K. and Le Quéré, C. and Levitus, S. and Nojiri, Y. and Shum, C. K. and Talley, L. D. and Unnikrishnan, A.},
title = {Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
editor = {Solomon, S. and Qin, D. and Manning, M. and Chen, Z. and Marquis, M. and Averyt, K.B. and Tignor, M. and Miller, H.L.},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
chapter = {Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level},
year = {2007}
}

@article{bintanja13,
   author = {Bintanja, R. and Van Oldenborgh, G. J. and Drijfhout, S. S. and Wouters, B. and Katsman, C. A.},
   title = {Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion},
   journal = {Nature Geoscience},
   volume = {6},
   number = {5},
   pages = {376-379},
   note = {Export Date: 4 June 2013
Source: Scopus},
   url = {http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84877264515&partnerID=40&md5=8e0f163df7bd60998d8028658bc50b99},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}


@article{bitz06,
   author = {Bitz, C. M. and Gent, P. R. and Woodgate, R. A. and Holland, M. M. and Lindsay, R.},
   title = {{The influence of sea ice on ocean heat uptake in response to increasing CO2}},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {19},
   number = {11},
   pages = {2437-2450},
   year = {2006}
}

@article{bitz05,
   author = {Bitz, C. M. and Holland, M. M. and Hunke, E. C. and Moritz, R. E.},
   title = {{Maintenance of the Sea-Ice Edge}},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {18},
   number = {15},
   pages = {2903-2921},
   abstract = {A coupled global climate model is used to evaluate processes that determine the equilibrium location of the sea-ice edge and its climatological annual cycle. The extent to which the wintertime ice edge departs from a symmetric ring around either pole depends primarily on coastlines, ice motion, and the melt rate at the ice–ocean interface. At any location the principal drivers of the oceanic heat flux that melts sea ice are absorbed solar radiation and the convergence of heat transported by ocean currents. The distance between the ice edge and the pole and the magnitude of the ocean heat flux convergence at the ice edge are inversely related. The chief exception to this rule is in the East Greenland Current, where the ocean heat flux convergence just east of the ice edge is relatively high but ice survives due to its swift southward motion and the protection of the cold southward-flowing surface water. In regions where the ice edge extends relatively far equatorward, absorbed solar radiation is the largest component of the ocean energy budget, and the large seasonal range of insolation causes the ice edge to traverse a large distance. In contrast, at relatively high latitudes, the ocean heat flux convergence is the largest component and it has a relatively small annual range, so the ice edge traverses a much smaller distance there. When the model is subject to increased CO2 forcing up to twice preindustrial levels, the ocean heat flux convergence weakens near the ice edge in most places. This weakening reduces the heat flux from the ocean to the base of the ice and tends to offset the effects of increased radiative forcing at the ice surface, so the ice edge retreats less than it would otherwise.},
   year = {2005}
}

@article{bitz08,
author = {Bitz, C.M.},
title = {{Some aspects of uncertainty in predicting sea ice thinning}},
journal = {Geophysical Monograph},
volume = {180},
pages = {63-76},
abstract = {A high proportion of the uncertainty in the decline of Arctic sea ice thickness in recent global climate models can be explained by the uncertainty in the ice thickness in the late 20th century. Experiments with one model indicate that this sensitivity to the mean state remains even when ice-albedo feedback is eliminated from the model. The magnitude of ice-albedo feedback is quantified and found to be too small to be a major source of uncertainty in thickness decline in climate models. Instead, it is shown that the sea ice growth-thickness feedback in combination with large biases in the sea ice thickness during the 20th century can easily give rise to very large uncertainty in future thickness decline. Reducing biases in the surface fluxes and better tuning the surface albedo would improve uncertainty in both present and future prediction.},
year = {2008}
}

@article{bitz12,
   author = {Bitz, CM and Shell, KM and Gent, PR and Bailey, DA and Danabasoglu, G and Armour, KC and Holland, MM and Kiehl, JT},
   title = {Climate sensitivity of the community climate system model, Version 4},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {25},
   number = {9},
   pages = {3053-3070},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{bitz12b,
   author = {Bitz, C. M. and Polvani, L. M.},
   title = {Antarctic climate response to stratospheric ozone depletion in a fine resolution ocean climate model},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {39},
   number = {20},
   pages = {L20705},
   ISSN = {1944-8007},
   DOI = {10.1029/2012GL053393},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053393},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{blackstock09,
   author = {Blackstock, Jason J. and Battisti, David S. and Caldeira, Ken and Eardley, Douglas M. and Katz, Jonathan I. and Keith, David W. and Patrinos, Aristides A.N. and Schrag, Daniel P. and Socolow, Robert H. and Koonin, Steven E.},
   title = {{Climate Engineering Responses to Climate Emergencies}},
   publisher = {Novim},
   year = {2009}
}

@article{blackstock10,
   author = {Blackstock, Jason J. and Long, Jane C. S.},
   title = {{The Politics of Geoengineering}},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {327},
   number = {5965},
   pages = {527-},
   year = {2010}
}

@article{bodansky1996,
   author = {Bodansky, Daniel},
   title = {May we engineer the climate?},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {33},
   number = {3},
   pages = {309-321},
   ISSN = {0165-0009},
   year = {1996},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{boe10,
author = {Boé, Julien and Hall, Alex and Qu, Xin},
title = {{Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century}},
journal = {Climatic Change},
volume = {99},
number = {3},
pages = {637-645},
abstract = {We show that intermodel variations in the anthropogenically-forced evolution of September sea ice extent (SSIE) in the Arctic stem mainly from two factors: the baseline climatological sea ice thickness (SIT) distribution, and the local climate feedback parameter. The roles of these two factors evolve over the course of the twenty-first century. The SIT distribution is the most important factor in current trends and those of coming decades, accounting for roughly half the intermodel variations in SSIE trends. Then, its role progressively decreases, so that around the middle of the twenty-first century the local climate feedback parameter becomes the dominant factor. Through this analysis, we identify the investments in improved simulation of Arctic climate necessary to reduce uncertainties both in projections of sea ice loss over the coming decades and in the ultimate fate of the ice pack.},
keywords = {Earth and Environmental Science},
year = {2010}

}

@article{boyd08,
   author = {Boyd, Philip W},
   title = {Ranking geo-engineering schemes},
   journal = {Nature Geoscience},
   volume = {1},
   number = {11},
   pages = {722-724},
   ISSN = {1752-0894},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{brovkin09,
   author = {Brovkin, Victor and Petoukhov, Vladimir and Claussen, Martin and Bauer, Eva and Archer, David and Jaeger, Carlo},
   title = {{Geoengineering climate by stratospheric sulfur injections: Earth system vulnerability to technological failure}},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {92},
   number = {3},
   pages = {243-259},
   keywords = {Earth and Environmental Science},
   year = {2009}
}

@book{budyko1977,
   author = {Budyko, Mikhail Ivanovich},
   title = {Climatic changes},
   publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
   volume = {42},
   ISBN = {0875902065},
   year = {1977},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{bunzl09,
   author = {Bunzl, Martin},
   title = {Researching geoengineering: should not or could not?},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {4},
   number = {4},
   pages = {045104},
   abstract = {Is geoengineering a feasible, sensible, or practical stopgap measure for us to have in our arsenal of potential responses to global warming? We do not know at this point and so it seems hardly contentious to claim that we should find out. I evaluate a moral argument that we should not try to find out and a methodological argument that even if we try, we cannot find out. I reject the first but end up as agnostic on the second, outlining the burden of proof that it creates for proponents of geoengineering research.},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{caldeira08,
author = {Caldeira, Ken and Wood, Lowell},
title = {Global and Arctic climate engineering: numerical model studies},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
volume = {366},
number = {1882},
pages = {4039-4056},
abstract = {We perform numerical simulations of the atmosphere, sea ice and upper ocean to examine possible effects of diminishing incoming solar radiation, insolation, on the climate system. We simulate both global and Arctic climate engineering in idealized scenarios in which insolation is diminished above the top of the atmosphere. We consider the Arctic scenarios because climate change is manifesting most strongly there. Our results indicate that, while such simple insolation modulation is unlikely to perfectly reverse the effects of greenhouse gas warming, over a broad range of measures considering both temperature and water, an engineered high CO2 climate can be made much more similar to the low CO2 climate than would be a high CO2 climate in the absence of such engineering. At high latitudes, there is less sunlight deflected per unit albedo change but climate system feedbacks operate more powerfully there. These two effects largely cancel each other, making the global mean temperature response per unit top-of-atmosphere albedo change relatively insensitive to latitude. Implementing insolation modulation appears to be feasible.},
year = {2008}
}

@article {chen07,
author = {Chen, Gang and Held, Isaac M.},
title = {Phase speed spectra and the recent poleward shift of Southern Hemisphere surface westerlies},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {34},
number = {21},
issn = {1944-8007},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031200},
doi = {10.1029/2007GL031200},
pages = {L21805},
keywords = {poleward shift of westerlies, phase speed spectra},
year = {2007},
}

@article{chen09,
author = {Chen, J. L. and Wilson, C. R. and Blankenship, D. and Tapley, B. D.},
title = {{Accelerated Antarctic ice loss from satellite gravity measurements}},
journal = {Nature Geosci},
volume = {2},
number = {12},
pages = {859-862},
note = {10.1038/ngeo694},
year = {2009}
}

@article{chiang05,
   author = {Chiang, John and Bitz, Cecilia},
   title = {{Influence of high latitude ice cover on the marine Intertropical Convergence Zone}},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {25},
   number = {5},
   pages = {477-496},
   abstract = {Abstract  We investigate the causes for a strong high latitude imposed ice (land or sea) influence on the marine Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Community Climate Model version 3 coupled to a 50-m slab ocean. The marine ITCZ in all the ocean basins shift meridionally away from the hemisphere with an imposed added ice cover, altering the global Hadley circulation with an increased tropical subsidence in the hemisphere with imposed ice and uplift in the other. The effect appears to be independent of the longitudinal position of imposed ice. The anomalous ice induces a rapid cooling and drying of the air and surface over the entire high- and midlatitudes; subsequent progression of cold anomalies occurs in the Pacific and Atlantic northeasterly trade regions, where a wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature (SST) feedback initiates progression of a cold SST ‘front’ towards the ITCZ latitudes. Once the cooler SST reaches the ITCZ latitude, the ITCZ shifts southwards, aided by positive feedbacks associated with the displacement. The ITCZ displacement transports moisture away from the colder and drier hemisphere into the other hemisphere, resulting in a pronounced hemispheric asymmetric response in anomalous specific humidity; we speculate that the atmospheric humidity plays a central role in the hemispheric asymmetric nature of the climate response to high latitude ice cover anomalies. From an energy balance viewpoint, the increased outgoing radiative flux at the latitudes of the imposed ice is compensated by an increased radiative energy flux at the tropical latitudes occupied by the displaced ITCZ, and subsequently transported by the altered Hadley and eddy circulations to the imposed ice latitudes. The situation investigated here may be applicable to past climates like the Last Glacial Maximum where hemispheric asymmetric changes to ice cover occurred. Major caveats to the conclusions drawn include omission of interactive sea ice physics and ocean dynamical feedback and sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameterizations across different models.},
   year = {2005}
}

@article{church05,
author = {Church, John A. and White, Neil J. and Arblaster, Julie M.},
title = {Significant decadal-scale impact of volcanic eruptions on sea level and ocean heat content},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {438},
number = {7064},
pages = {74-77},
note = {10.1038/nature04237},
year = {2005}
}

@inbook{church13,
author = {Church, J.A. and Clark, P.U. and Cazenave, A. and Gregory, J.M. and Jevrejeva, S. and Levermann, A. and Merrifield, M.A. and Milne, G.A. and Nerem, R.S. and Nunn, P.D. and Payne, A.J. and Pfeffer, W.T. and Stammer D. and Unnikrishnan, A.S.},
title = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
editor = {Stocker, T.F., and Qin, D. and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M. and Allen, S.K. and Boschung, J. and Nauels, A. and Xia, Y. and Bex V. and Midgley, P.M},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
chapter = {Sea Level Change},
year = {2013}
}

@article{cohen14,
  title={{Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather}},
  author={Cohen, Judah and Screen, James A and Furtado, Jason C and Barlow, Mathew and Whittleston, David and Coumou, Dim and Francis, Jennifer and Dethloff, Klaus and Entekhabi, Dara and Overland, James and others},
  journal={Nature geoscience},
  volume={7},
  number={9},
  pages={627--637},
  year={2014},
  publisher={Nature Publishing Group}
}


@article{collins06,
   author = {Collins, William D. and Bitz, Cecilia M. and Blackmon, Maurice L. and Bonan, Gordon B. and Bretherton, Christopher S. and Carton, James A. and Chang, Ping and Doney, Scott C. and Hack, James J. and Henderson, Thomas B. and Kiehl, Jeffrey T. and Large, William G. and McKenna, Daniel S. and Santer, Benjamin D. and Smith, Richard D.},
   title = {{The Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3)}},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {19},
   number = {11},
   pages = {2122-2143},
   year = {2006}
}

@misc{comiso00,
   author = {Comiso, J. C.},
   title = {{Bootstrap Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS. Version 2}},
   howpublished={\url{http://dx.doi.org/10.5067/J6JQLS9EJ5HU}},
   doi = {10.5067/J6JQLS9EJ5H},
   year = {2000, updated 2015},
   publisher = {Boulder, Colorado USA: NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center},
   note = {December 1979 to February 2012}
}

@article{compo11,
  title={The twentieth century reanalysis project},
  author={Compo, Gilbert P and Whitaker, Jeffrey S and Sardeshmukh, Prashant D and Matsui, Nobuki and Allan, Robert J and Yin, Xungang and Gleason, Byron E and Vose, RS and Rutledge, G and Bessemoulin, P and others},
  journal={Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
  volume={137},
  number={654},
  pages={1--28},
  year={2011},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{crutzen06,
   author = {Crutzen, Paul J},
   title = {Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: a contribution to resolve a policy dilemma?},
   journal = {Climatic change},
   volume = {77},
   number = {3},
   pages = {211-220},
   ISSN = {0165-0009},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{davidson12,
   author = {Davidson, Peter and Burgoyne, Chris and Hunt, Hugh and Causier, Matt},
   title = {Lifting options for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering: advantages of tethered balloon systems},
   journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
   volume = {370},
   number = {1974},
   pages = {4263-4300},
   abstract = {The Royal Society report ?Geoengineering the Climate? identified solar radiation management using albedo-enhancing aerosols injected into the stratosphere as the most affordable and effective option for geoengineering, but did not consider in any detail the options for delivery. This paper provides outline engineering analyses of the options, both for batch-delivery processes, following up on previous work for artillery shells, missiles, aircraft and free-flying balloons, as well as a more lengthy analysis of continuous-delivery systems that require a pipe connected to the ground and supported at a height of 20?km, either by a tower or by a tethered balloon. Towers are shown not to be practical, but a tethered balloon delivery system, with high-pressure pumping, appears to have much lower operating and capital costs than all other delivery options. Instead of transporting sulphuric acid mist precursors, such a system could also be used to transport slurries of high refractive index particles such as coated titanium dioxide. The use of such particles would allow useful experiments on opacity, coagulation and atmospheric chemistry at modest rates so as not to perturb regional or global climatic conditions, thus reducing scale-up risks. Criteria for particle choice are discussed, including the need to minimize or prevent ozone destruction. The paper estimates the time scales and relatively modest costs required if a tethered balloon system were to be introduced in a measured way with testing and development work proceeding over three decades, rather than in an emergency. The manufacture of a tether capable of sustaining the high tensions and internal pressures needed, as well as strong winds, is a significant challenge, as is the development of the necessary pumping and dispersion technologies. The greatest challenge may be the manufacture and launch of very large balloons, but means have been identified to significantly reduce the size of such balloons or aerostats.},
   DOI = {10.1098/rsta.2011.0639},
   url = {http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1974/4263.abstract},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article {dee11,
author = {Dee, D. P. and Uppala, S. M. and Simmons, A. J. and Berrisford, P. and Poli, P. and Kobayashi, S. and Andrae, U. and Balmaseda, M. A. and Balsamo, G. and Bauer, P. and Bechtold, P. and Beljaars, A. C. M. and van de Berg, L. and Bidlot, J. and Bormann, N. and Delsol, C. and Dragani, R. and Fuentes, M. and Geer, A. J. and Haimberger, L. and Healy, S. B. and Hersbach, H. and Hólm, E. V. and Isaksen, L. and Kållberg, P. and Köhler, M. and Matricardi, M. and McNally, A. P. and Monge-Sanz, B. M. and Morcrette, J.-J. and Park, B.-K. and Peubey, C. and de Rosnay, P. and Tavolato, C. and Thépaut, J.-N. and Vitart, F.},
title = {{The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system}},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
volume = {137},
number = {656},
publisher = {John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.},
issn = {1477-870X},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.828},
doi = {10.1002/qj.828},
pages = {553--597},
keywords = {ERA-40, 4D-Var, hydrological cycle, stratospheric circulation, observations, forecast model},
year = {2011},
}


@article{deser12a,
   author = {Deser, Clara and Knutti, Reto and Solomon, Susan and Phillips, Adam S},
   title = {Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate},
   journal = {Nature Climate Change},
   volume = {2},
   number = {11},
   pages = {775-779},
   ISSN = {1758-678X},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{deser12b,
   author = {Deser, Clara and Phillips, Adam and Bourdette, Vincent and Teng, Haiyan},
   title = {Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability},
   journal = {Climate dynamics},
   volume = {38},
   number = {3-4},
   pages = {527-546},
   ISSN = {0930-7575},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@misc{deweaver07,
author = {DeWeaver, E.},
title = {{Uncertainty in Climate Model Projections of Arctic Sea Ice Decline: An Evaluation Relevant to Polar Bears}},
publisher = {USGS},
year = {2007}
}

@article{dijkstra95,
   author = {Dijkstra, Henk A. and Neelin, J. David},
   title = {{Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and the Tropical Climatology. Part II: Why the Pacific Cold Tongue Is in the East}},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {8},
   number = {5},
   pages = {1343-1359},
   abstract = {The influence of coupled process on the climatology of the tropical Pacific is studied in a model for the interaction of equatorial SST, the associated component of the Walker circulation, and upper-ocean dynamics. In this part, the authors show how different physical mechanisms affect the spatial pattern of the Pacific warm pool and cold tongue in this coupled climatology. When model parameters give a suitable balance between effects of upwelling and thermocline depth on sea surface temperature and for suitable atmospheric parameters, a good prototype for the observed cold-tongue configuration is produced. This is largely determined by coupled ocean-atmosphere processes within the basin. Presence of an easterly wind s~ component produced by factors external to the Pacific basin can be important in setting up a cooling tendency, but this is magnified and modified by a chain of nonlinear feedbacks between trade winds and ocean dynamics affecting the SST gradient within the basin. These feedbacks determine a preferred spatial pattern that does not strongly depend on the form of the external wind stress and that tends to place the cold tongue in the cast-central basin. Although robust to external influences, this pattern is sensitive to the balance of coupled process. Parameter changes can produce warm-pool-cold-tongue patterns significantly different from observed but resembling some noted in coupled CTCMS.},
   year = {1995}
}

@article{dinezio09,
   author = {DiNezio, Pedro N. and Clement, Amy C. and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Soden, Brian J. and Kirtman, Benjamin P. and Lee, Sang-Ki},
   title = {{Climate Response of the Equatorial Pacific to Global Warming}},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {22},
   number = {18},
   pages = {4873-4892},
   abstract = {The climate response of the equatorial Pacific to increased greenhouse gases is investigated using numerical experiments from 11 climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change&#8217;s Fourth Assessment Report. Multimodel mean climate responses to CO2 doubling are identified and related to changes in the heat budget of the surface layer. Weaker ocean surface currents driven by a slowing down of the Walker circulation reduce ocean dynamical cooling throughout the equatorial Pacific. The combined anomalous ocean dynamical plus radiative heating from CO2 is balanced by different processes in the western and eastern basins: Cloud cover feedbacks and evaporation balance the heating over the warm pool, while increased cooling by ocean vertical heat transport balances the warming over the cold tongue. This increased cooling by vertical ocean heat transport arises from increased near-surface thermal stratification, despite a reduction in vertical velocity. The stratification response is found to be a permanent feature of the equilibrium climate potentially linked to both thermodynamical and dynamical changes within the equatorial Pacific. Briefly stated, ocean dynamical changes act to reduce (enhance) the net heating in the east (west). This explains why the models simulate enhanced equatorial warming, rather than El Ni&#241;o&#8211;like warming, in response to a weaker Walker circulation. To conclude, the implications for detecting these signals in the modern observational record are discussed.},
   year = {2009}
}

@article{ding11,
author = {Ding, Qinghua and Steig, Eric J. and Battisti, David S. and K\"{u}ttel, Marcel},
title = {{Winter warming in West Antarctica caused by central tropical Pacific warming}},
journal = {Nature Geosci},
volume = {4},
number = {6},
pages = {398-403},
note = {10.1038/ngeo1129},
year = {2011}
}

@article{english12,
   author = {English, J. M. and Toon, O. B. and Mills, M. J.},
   title = {Microphysical simulations of sulfur burdens from stratospheric sulfur geoengineering},
   journal = {Atmos. Chem. Phys.},
   volume = {12},
   number = {10},
   pages = {4775-4793},
   note = {ACP},
   ISSN = {1680-7324},
   DOI = {10.5194/acp-12-4775-2012},
   url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/4775/2012/},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{faofood12,
   author = {FAO, FAO OAA},
   title = {Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient to accelerate reduction of hunger and malnutrition},
   publisher = {Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations},
   address = {Rome},
   ISBN = {9789251073162 9251073163},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{farneti10,
author = {Farneti, Riccardo and Delworth, Thomas L. and Rosati, Anthony J. and Griffies, Stephen M. and Zeng, Fanrong},
title = {{The Role of Mesoscale Eddies in the Rectification of the Southern Ocean Response to Climate Change}},
journal = {Journal of Physical Oceanography},
volume = {40},
number = {7},
pages = {1539-1557},
year = {2010}
}

@article{favier14,
author = {Favier, L. and Durand G. and Cornford, S. L. and Gudmundsson, G. H. and Gagliardini, O. and Gillet-Chaulet, F. and Zwinger, T. and Payne, A. J. and Le Brocq, A. M.},
title = {{Retreat of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability}},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
volume = {4},
pages = {117-121},
DOI = {DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2094},
year = {2014},
type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{feely04,
author = {Feely, Richard A. and Sabine, Christopher L. and Lee, Kitack and Berelson, Will and Kleypas, Joanie and Fabry, Victoria J. and Millero, Frank J.},
title = {Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the CaCO3 System in the Oceans},
journal = {Science},
volume = {305},
number = {5682},
pages = {362-366},
abstract = {Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations over the past two centuries have led to greater CO2 uptake by the oceans. This acidification process has changed the saturation state ofthe oceans with respect to calcium carbonate (CaCO3) particles. Here we estimate the in situ CaCO3 dissolution rates for the global oceans from total alkalinity and chlorofluorocarbon data, and we also discuss the future impacts of anthropogenic CO2 on CaCO3 shellÐforming species. CaCO3 dissolution rates, ranging from 0.003 to 1.2 micromoles per kilogram per year, are observed beginning near the aragonite saturation horizon. The total water column CaCO3 dissolution rate for the global oceans is approximately 0.5 ± 0.2 petagrams of CaCO3-C per year, which is approximately 45 to 65\% of the export production of CaCO3.},
DOI = {10.1126/science.1097329},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/305/5682/362.abstract},
year = {2004},
type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{ferraro11,
   author = {Ferraro, A. J. and Highwood, E. J. and Charlton-Perez, A. J.},
   title = {Stratospheric heating by potential geoengineering aerosols},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {38},
   number = {24},
   pages = {L24706},
   ISSN = {1944-8007},
   DOI = {10.1029/2011GL049761},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049761},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{ferreira14,
   author = {Ferreira, David and Marshall, John and Bitz, Cecilia M. and Solomon, Susan and Plumb, Alan},
   title = {{Antarctic ocean and sea ice response to ozone depletion: a two timescale problem}},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{flato13,
author = {Flato, G. and Marotzke, J. and Abiodun, B. and Braconnot, P. and Chou, S.C. and Collins, W. and Cox, P. and Driouech, F. and Emori, S. and Eyring, V. and Forest, C. and Gleckler, P. and Guilyardi, E. and Jakob, C. and Kattsov, V. and Reason C. and Rummukainen, M.},
title = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
editor = {Stocker, T.F., and Qin, D. and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M. and Allen, S.K. and Boschung, J. and Nauels, A. and Xia, Y. and Bex V. and Midgley, P.M},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
chapter = {Evaluation of Climate Models},
year = {2013}
}


@inbook{forster07,
author = {Forster, P. and Ramaswamy, V. and Artaxo, P. and Berntsen, T. and Betts, R. and Fahey, D.W. and Haywood, J. and Lean, J. and Lowe, D.C. and Myhre, G. and Nganga, J. and Prinn, R. and Raga, G. and Schulz, M. and Van Dorland, R.},
title = {Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
editor = {Solomon, S. and Qin, D. and Manning, M. and Chen, Z. and Marquis, M. and Averyt, K.B. and Tignor, M. and Miller, H.L.},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
chapter = {Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing.},
year = {2007}
}

@article{francis09,
  title={{Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent}},
  author={Francis, Jennifer A and Chan, Weihan and Leathers, Daniel J and Miller, James R and Veron, Dana E},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
  volume={36},
  number={7},
  year={2009},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{francis15,
  title={{Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming}},
  author={Francis, Jennifer A and Vavrus, Stephen J},
  journal={Environmental Research Letters},
  volume={10},
  number={1},
  pages={014005},
  year={2015},
  publisher={IOP Publishing}
}

@article{free09,
   author = {Free, Melissa and Lanzante, John},
   title = {Effect of volcanic eruptions on the vertical temperature profile in radiosonde data and climate models},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {22},
   number = {11},
   pages = {2925-2939},
   ISSN = {1520-0442},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{fyfe07,
   author = {Fyfe, John C. and Saenko, Oleg A. and Zickfeld, Kirsten and Eby, Michael and Weaver, Andrew J.},
   title = {{The Role of Poleward-Intensifying Winds on Southern Ocean Warming}},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {20},
   number = {21},
   pages = {5391-5400},
   year = {2007}
}

@article{fyfe13,
   author = {Fyfe, J. C. and Cole, J. N. S. and Arora, V. K. and Scinocca, J. F.},
   title = {Biogeochemical carbon coupling influences global precipitation in geoengineering experiments},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {40},
   number = {3},
   pages = {651-655},
   ISSN = {1944-8007},
   DOI = {10.1002/grl.50166},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/grl.50166},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{gardiner06,
   author = {Gardiner, Stephen M},
   title = {A perfect moral storm: climate change, intergenerational ethics and the problem of moral corruption},
   journal = {Environmental Values},
   pages = {397-413},
   ISSN = {0963-2719},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{gardiner11a,
   author = {Gardiner, Stephen M},
   title = {A perfect moral storm: The ethical tragedy of climate change},
   publisher = {Oxford University Press},
   ISBN = {0199910456},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{gardiner11b,
   author = {Gardiner, Stephen M.},
   title = {Some Early Ethics of Geoengineering the Climate: A Commentary on the Values of the Royal Society Report},
   journal = {Environmental Values},
   volume = {20},
   number = {2},
   pages = {163-188},
   abstract = {The Royal Society's landmark report on geoengineering is predicated on a particular account of the context and rationale for intentional manipulation of the climate system, and this ethical framework probably explains many of the Society's conclusions. Critical reflection on the report's values is useful for understanding disagreements within and about geoengineering policy, and also for identifying questions for early ethical analysis. Topics discussed include the moral hazard argument, governance, the ethical status of geoengineering under different rationales, the implications of understanding geoengineering as a consequence of wider moral failure, and ethical resistance to invasive interventions in environmental systems.},
   DOI = {10.3197/096327111X12997574391689},
   url = {http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/whp/ev/2011/00000020/00000002/art00005},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3197/096327111X12997574391689},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{gasparrini11,
   author = {Gasparrini, Antonio and Armstrong, Ben},
   title = {The impact of heat waves on mortality},
   journal = {Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)},
   volume = {22},
   number = {1},
   pages = {68},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{gent11,
author = {Gent, Peter R. and Danabasoglu, Gokhan and Donner, Leo J. and Holland, Marika M. and Hunke, Elizabeth C. and Jayne, Steve R. and Lawrence, David M. and Neale, Richard B. and Rasch, Philip J. and Vertenstein, Mariana and Worley, Patrick H. and Yang, Zong-Liang and Zhang, Minghua},
title = {The Community Climate System Model Version 4},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
volume = {24},
number = {19},
pages = {4973-4991},
year = {2011}
}

@article{gerber14,
  title={Influence of the western North Atlantic and the Barents Sea on European winter climate},
  author={Gerber, Franziska and Sedl{\'a}{\v{c}}ek, Jan and Knutti, Reto},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
  volume={41},
  number={2},
  pages={561--567},
  year={2014},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{gillett13,
   author = {Gillett, Nathan P. and Fyfe, John C. and Parker, David E.},
   title = {Attribution of observed sea level pressure trends to greenhouse gas, aerosol and ozone changes},
   journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett. Geophysical Research Letters},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{gillett03,
   author = {Gillett, Nathan P. and Thompson, David W. J.},
   title = {Simulation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {302},
   number = {5643},
   pages = {273-275},
   abstract = {Recent observations indicate that climate change over the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by a strengthening of the circumpolar westerly flow that extends from the surface to the stratosphere. Here we demonstrate that the seasonality, structure, and amplitude of the observed climate trends are simulated in a state-of-the-art atmospheric model run with high vertical resolution that is forced solely by prescribed stratospheric ozone depletion. The results provide evidence that anthropogenic emissions of ozonedepleting gases have had a distinct impact on climate not only at stratospheric levels but at Earth's surface as well.},
   DOI = {10.1126/science.1087440},
   url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/302/5643/273.abstract},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{gillett08,
  title={Attribution of polar warming to human influence},
  author={Gillett, Nathan P and Stone, D{\'a}ith{\'\i} A and Stott, Peter A and Nozawa, Toru and Karpechko, Alexey Yu and Hegerl, Gabriele C and Wehner, Michael F and Jones, Philip D},
  journal={Nature Geoscience},
  volume={1},
  number={11},
  pages={750--754},
  year={2008},
  publisher={Nature Publishing Group}
}


@article{gillett11,
author = {Gillett, Nathan P. and Arora, Vivek K. and Zickfeld, Kirsten and Marshall, Shawn J. and Merryfield, William J.},
title = {Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions},
journal = {Nature Geosci},
volume = {4},
number = {2},
pages = {83-87},
note = {10.1038/ngeo1047},
year = {2011}
}

@article{gleckler06,
author = {Gleckler, P. J. and AchutaRao, K. and Gregory, J. M. and Santer, B. D. and Taylor, K. E. and Wigley, T. M. L.},
title = {Krakatoa lives: The effect of volcanic eruptions on ocean heat content and thermal expansion},
journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},
volume = {33},
number = {17},
pages = {L17702},
abstract = {A suite of climate model experiments indicates that 20th Century increases in ocean heat content and sea-level (via thermal expansion) were substantially reduced by the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa. The volcanically-induced cooling of the ocean surface is subducted into deeper ocean layers, where it persists for decades. Temporary reductions in ocean heat content associated with the comparable eruptions of El Chichón (1982) and Pinatubo (1991) were much shorter lived because they occurred relative to a non-stationary background of large, anthropogenically-forced ocean warming. Our results suggest that inclusion of the effects of Krakatoa (and perhaps even earlier eruptions) is important for reliable simulation of 20th century ocean heat uptake and thermal expansion. Inter-model differences in the oceanic thermal response to Krakatoa are large and arise from differences in external forcing, model physics, and experimental design. Systematic experimentation is required to quantify the relative importance of these factors. The next generation of historical forcing experiments may require more careful treatment of pre-industrial volcanic aerosol loadings.},
keywords = {0370 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Volcanic effects
1626 Global Change: Global climate models
1635 Global Change: Oceans
1641 Global Change: Sea level change
4568 Oceanography: Physical: Turbulence, diffusion, and mixing processes},
year = {2006}
}

@article{goes11,
   author = {Goes, Marlos and Tuana, Nancy and Keller, Klaus},
   title = {The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {109},
   number = {3-4},
   pages = {719-744},
   ISSN = {0165-0009},
   DOI = {10.1007/s10584-010-9961-z},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9961-z},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{goldberg12,
   author = {Goldberg, D. N. and Little, C. M. and Sergienko, O. V. and Gnanadesikan, A. and Hallberg, R. and Oppenheimer, M.},
   title = {Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice-ocean model: 2. Sensitivity to external forcings},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface},
   volume = {117},
   number = {2},
   note = {Cited By (since 1996):1 Export Date: 4 June 2013 Source: Scopus Art. No.: F02038},
   url = {http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84863479204&partnerID=40&md5=4d90841e4a0bea1730916f50f68c1502},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{govindasamy03,
   author = {Govindasamy, B. and Caldeira, K. and Duffy, P. B.},
   title = {{Geoengineering Earth's radiation balance to mitigate climate change from a quadrupling of CO2}},
   journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
   volume = {37},
   number = {1-2},
   pages = {157-168},
   keywords = {anthropogenic CO2
climate change
geoengineering
mitigation of climate change},
   year = {2003}
}

@article{govindasamy00,
   author = {Govindasamy, Bala and Caldeira, Ken},
   title = {{Geoengineering Earth’s Radiation Balance to Mitigate CO2-Induced Climate Change}},
   journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},
   volume = {27},
   number = {14},
   pages = {2141-2144},
   note = {doi:10.1029/1999GL006086},
   abstract = {To counteract anthropogenic climate change, several schemes have been proposed to diminish solar radiation incident on Earth's surface. These geoengineering schemes could reverse global annual mean warming; however, it is unclear to what extent they would mitigate regional and seasonal climate change, because radiative forcing from greenhouse gases such as CO2 differs from that of sunlight. No previous study has directly addressed this issue. In the NCAR CCM3 atmospheric general circulation model, we reduced the solar luminosity to balance the increased radiative forcing from doubling atmospheric CO2. Our results indicate that geoengineering schemes could markedly diminish regional and seasonal climate change from increased atmospheric CO2, despite differences in radiative forcing patterns. Nevertheless, geoengineering schemes could prove environmentally risky.},
   year = {2000}
}

@article{govindasamy02,
   author = {Govindasamy, Bala and Thompson, S and Duffy, PB and Caldeira, K and Delire, C},
   title = {Impact of geoengineering schemes on the terrestrial biosphere},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {29},
   number = {22},
   pages = {2061},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   year = {2002},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{grebmeier06,
   author = {Grebmeier, Jacqueline M. and Overland, James E. and Moore, Sue E. and Farley, Ed V. and Carmack, Eddy C. and Cooper, Lee W. and Frey, Karen E. and Helle, John H. and McLaughlin, Fiona A. and McNutt, S. Lyn},
   title = {{A Major Ecosystem Shift in the Northern Bering Sea}},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {311},
   number = {5766},
   pages = {1461-1464},
   abstract = {Until recently, northern Bering Sea ecosystems were characterized by extensive seasonal sea ice cover, high water column and sediment carbon production, and tight pelagic-benthic coupling of organic production. Here, we show that these ecosystems are shifting away from these characteristics. Changes in biological communities are contemporaneous with shifts in regional atmospheric and hydrographic forcing. In the past decade, geographic displacement of marine mammal population distributions has coincided with a reduction of benthic prey populations, an increase in pelagic fish, a reduction in sea ice, and an increase in air and ocean temperatures. These changes now observed on the shallow shelf of the northern Bering Sea should be expected to affect a much broader portion of the Pacific-influenced sector of the Arctic Ocean.},
   year = {2006}
}

@article{gregory00,
   author = {Gregory, J. M.},
   title = {Vertical heat transports in the ocean and their effect on time-dependent climate change},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {16},
   number = {7},
   pages = {501-515},
   ISSN = {0930-7575},
   DOI = {10.1007/s003820000059},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820000059},
   year = {2000},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{gregory02,
   author = {Gregory, J. M. and Stouffer, R. J. and Raper, S. C. B. and Stott, P. A. and Rayner, N. A.},
   title = {An Observationally Based Estimate of the Climate Sensitivity},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {15},
   number = {22},
   pages = {3117-3121},
   year = {2002}
}

@article{hall02,
   author = {Hall, Alex and Visbeck, Martin},
   title = {{Synchronous Variability in the Southern Hemisphere Atmosphere, Sea Ice, and Ocean Resulting from the Annular Mode*}},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {15},
   number = {21},
   pages = {3043-3057},
   year = {2002}
}

@article{hansen1988,
   author = {Hansen, J. and Fung, I. and Lacis, A. and Rind, D. and Lebedeff, S. and Ruedy, R. and Russell, G. and Stone, P.},
   title = {Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {93},
   number = {D8},
   pages = {9341-9364},
   ISSN = {2156-2202},
   DOI = {10.1029/JD093iD08p09341},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/JD093iD08p09341},
   year = {1988},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{hansen05,
   author = {Hansen, James and Nazarenko, Larissa and Ruedy, Reto and Sato, Makiko and Willis, Josh and Del Genio, Anthony and Koch, Dorothy and Lacis, Andrew and Lo, Ken and Menon, Surabi},
   title = {Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications},
   journal = {science},
   volume = {308},
   number = {5727},
   pages = {1431-1435},
   ISSN = {0036-8075},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{hansen06,
   author = {Hansen, James and Sato, Makiko and Ruedy, Reto and Lo, Ken and Lea, David W and Medina-Elizade, Martin},
   title = {Global temperature change},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
   volume = {103},
   number = {39},
   pages = {14288-14293},
   ISSN = {0027-8424},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{hansen07,
    abstract = {{We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the "alternative" scenario of Hansen and Sato (2004). Identification of "dangerous" effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1°C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing \~{}1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1°C if climate sensitivity is \~{}3°C or less for doubled CO2. The alternative scenario keeps mean regional seasonal warming within 2σ (standard deviations) of 20th century variability, but other scenarios yield regional changes of 5-10, i.e., mean conditions outside the range of local experience. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. We suggest that Arctic climate change has been driven as much by pollutants (O3, its precursor CH4, and soot) as by CO2, offering hope that dual efforts to reduce pollutants and slow CO2 growth could minimize Arctic change. Simulated recent ocean warming in the region of Atlantic hurricane formation is comparable to observations, suggesting that greenhouse gases (GHGs) may have contributed to a trend toward greater hurricane intensities. Increasing GHGs cause significant warming in our model in submarine regions of ice shelves and shallow methane hydrates, raising concern about the potential for accelerating sea level rise and future positive feedback from methane release. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt actions to slow CO2 emissions and decrease non-CO2 forcings are needed to achieve the low forcing of the alternative scenario.}},
    author = {Hansen, J. and Sato, M. and Ruedy, R. and Kharecha, P. and Lacis, A. and Miller, R. and Nazarenko, L. and Lo, K. and Schmidt, G. A. and Russell, G. and Aleinov, I. and Bauer, S. and Baum, E. and Cairns, B. and Canuto, V. and Chandler, M. and Cheng, Y. and Cohen, A. and Genio, Del A. and Faluvegi, G. and Fleming, E. and Friend, A. and Hall, T. and Jackman, C. and Jonas, J. and Kelley, M. and Kiang, N. Y. and Koch, D. and Labow, G. and Lerner, J. and Menon, S. and Novakov, T. and Oinas, V. and Perlwitz, Ja and Perlwitz, Ju and Rind, D. and Romanou, A. and Schmunk, R. and Shindell, D. and Stone, P. and Sun, S. and Streets, D. and Tausnev, N. and Thresher, D. and Unger, N. and Yao, M. and Zhang, S.},
    citeulike-article-id = {4424771},
    citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007\_Hansen\_etal\_1.pdf},
    journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
    keywords = {climate-model, climate-scenarios, global-climate, model},
    pages = {2287--2312},
    posted-at = {2009-04-28 23:01:13},
    priority = {2},
    title = {{Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study}},
    volume = {7},
    year = {2007}
}

@article {hansen10,
author = {Hansen, J. and Ruedy, R. and Sato, M. and Lo, K.},
title = {GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
volume = {48},
number = {4},
issn = {1944-9208},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345},
doi = {10.1029/2010RG000345},
pages = {n/a--n/a},
keywords = {Instruments and techniques, General or miscellaneous, global temperature, temperature analysis, climate change, global change, El Niño-La Niña},
year = {2010},
note = {RG4004},
}

@article{hansen11,
   author = {Hansen, James and Sato, Makiko and Kharecha, Pushker and von Schuckmann, Karina},
   title = {EarthúÄôs energy imbalance and implications},
   journal = {Atmos Chem Phys},
   volume = {11},
   number = {24},
   pages = {13421-13449},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{hare06,
author = {Hare, Bill and Meinshausen, Malte},
title = {{How Much Warming are We Committed to and How Much can be Avoided?}},
journal = {Climatic Change},
volume = {75},
number = {1},
pages = {111-149},
abstract = {This paper examines different concepts of a ‘warming commitment’ which is often used in various ways to describe or imply that a certain level of warming is irrevocably committed to over time frames such as the next 50 to 100 years, or longer. We review and quantify four different concepts, namely (1) a ‘constant emission warming commitment’, (2) a ‘present forcing warming commitment’, (3) a‘zero emission (geophysical) warming commitment’ and (4) a ‘feasible scenario warming commitment’. While a ‘feasible scenario warming commitment’ is probably the most relevant one for policy making, it depends centrally on key assumptions as to the technical, economic and political feasibility of future greenhouse gas emission reductions. This issue is of direct policy relevance when one considers that the 2002 global mean temperatures were 0.8� 0.2 ∘C above the pre-industrial (1861–1890) mean and the European Union has a stated goal of limiting warming to 2 ∘C above the pre-industrial mean: What is the risk that we are committed to overshoot 2 ∘C? Using a simple climate model (MAGICC) for probabilistic computations based on the conventional IPCC uncertainty range for climate sensitivity (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C), we found that (1) a constant emission scenario is virtually certain to overshoot 2 ∘C with a central estimate of 2.0 ∘C by 2100 (4.2 ∘C by 2400). (2) For the present radiative forcing levels it seems unlikely that 2 ∘C are overshoot. (central warming estimate 1.1 ∘C by 2100 and 1.2 ∘C by 2400 with ∼10\% probability of overshooting 2 ∘C). However, the risk of overshooting is increasing rapidly if radiative forcing is stabilized much above 400 ppm CO2 equivalence (1.95 W/m2) in the long-term. (3) From a geophysical point of view, if all human-induced emissions were ceased tomorrow, it seems ‘exceptionally unlikely’ that 2 ∘C will be overshoot (central estimate: 0.7 ∘C by 2100; 0.4 ∘C by 2400). (4) Assuming future emissions according to the lower end of published mitigation scenarios (350 ppm CO2eq to 450 ppm CO2eq) provides the central temperature projections are 1.5 to 2.1 ∘C by 2100 (1.5 to 2.0 ∘C by 2400) with a risk of overshooting 2 ∘C between 10 and 50\% by 2100 and 1–32\% in equilibrium. Furthermore, we quantify the ‘avoidable warming’ to be 0.16–0.26 ∘C for every 100 GtC of avoided CO2 emissions – based on a range of published mitigation scenarios.},
keywords = {Earth and Environmental Science},
year = {2006}
}

@article{harvey02,
   author = {Harvey, L. D. Danny and Kaufmann, Robert K.},
   title = {Simultaneously Constraining Climate Sensitivity and Aerosol Radiative Forcing},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {15},
   number = {20},
   pages = {2837-2861},
   year = {2002}
}

@article{hattermann10,
   author = {Hattermann, Tore Levermann Anders},
   title = {Response of Southern Ocean circulation to global warming may enhance basal ice shelf melting around Antarctica},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {35},
   number = {5},
   pages = {741-756},
   abstract = {We investigate the large-scale oceanic features determining the future ice shelf-ocean interaction by analyzing global warming experiments in a coarse resolution climate model with a comprehensive ocean component. Heat and freshwater fluxes from basal ice shelf melting (ISM) are parameterized following Beckmann and Goosse [Ocean Model 5(2):157-170, 2003]. Melting sensitivities to the oceanic temperature outside of the ice shelf cavities are varied from linear to quadratic (Holland et al. in J Clim 21, 2008). In 1\% per year CO<sub>2</sub>-increase experiments the total freshwater flux from ISM triples to 0.09 Sv in the linear case and more than quadruples to 0.15 Sv in the quadratic case after 140 years at which 4 × 280 ppm = 1,120 ppm was reached. Due to the long response time of subsurface temperature anomalies, ISM thereafter increases drastically, if CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations are kept constant at 1,120 ppm. Varying strength of the Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC) is crucial for ISM increase, because southward advection of heat dominates the warming along the Antarctic coast. On centennial timescales the ACC accelerates due to deep ocean warming north of the current, caused by mixing of heat along isopycnals in the Southern Ocean (SO) outcropping regions. In contrast to previous studies we find an initial weakening of the ACC during the first 150 years of warming. This purely baroclinic effect is due to a freshening in the SO which is consistent with present observations. Comparison with simulations with diagnosed ISM but without its influence on the ocean circulation reveal a number of ISM-related feedbacks, of which a negative ISM-feedback, due to the ISM-related local oceanic cooling, is the dominant one.},
   ISSN = {0930-7575},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{haywood13,
   author = {Haywood, Jim M. Jones Andy Bellouin Nicolas Stephenson David},
   title = {Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall},
   journal = {Nature Climate change Nature Climate Change},
   ISSN = {1758-678X},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{heckendorn09,
author = {Heckendorn, P. and Weisenstein, D. and Fueglistaler, S. and Luo, B.P. and Rozanov, E. and Schraner, M. and Thomason, L.W. and Peter, T.},
title = {{The impact of geoengineering aerosols on stratospheric temperature and ozone}},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
volume = {4},
number = {4},
pages = {045108},
abstract = {Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are warming the global climate at an unprecedented rate. Significant emission reductions will be required soon to avoid a rapid temperature rise. As a potential interim measure to avoid extreme temperature increase, it has been suggested that Earth's albedo be increased by artificially enhancing stratospheric sulfate aerosols. We use a 3D chemistry climate model, fed by aerosol size distributions from a zonal mean aerosol model, to simulate continuous injection of 1–10 Mt/a into the lower tropical stratosphere. In contrast to the case for all previous work, the particles are predicted to grow to larger sizes than are observed after volcanic eruptions. The reason is the continuous supply of sulfuric acid and hence freshly formed small aerosol particles, which enhance the formation of large aerosol particles by coagulation and, to a lesser extent, by condensation. Owing to their large size, these particles have a reduced albedo. Furthermore, their sedimentation results in a non-linear relationship between stratospheric aerosol burden and annual injection, leading to a reduction of the targeted cooling. More importantly, the sedimenting particles heat the tropical cold point tropopause and, hence, the stratospheric entry mixing ratio of H 2 O increases. Therefore, geoengineering by means of sulfate aerosols is predicted to accelerate the hydroxyl catalyzed ozone destruction cycles and cause a significant depletion of the ozone layer even though future halogen concentrations will be significantly reduced.},
year = {2009}
}

@article{hegerl06,
   author = {Hegerl, Gabriele C. and Crowley, Thomas J. and Hyde, William T. and Frame, David J.},
   title = {Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries},
   journal = {Nature},
   volume = {440},
   number = {7087},
   pages = {1029-1032},
   note = {10.1038/nature04679},
   year = {2006}
}

@article{hegerl09,
   author = {Hegerl, Gabriele C. and Solomon, Susan},
   title = {{Risks of Climate Engineering}},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {325},
   number = {5943},
   pages = {955-956},
   year = {2009}
}

@article{held06,
   author = {Held, Isaac M. and Soden, Brian J.},
   title = {{Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming}},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {19},
   number = {21},
   pages = {5686-5699},
   abstract = {Using the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study examines some aspects of the changes in the hydrological cycle that are robust across the models. These responses include the decrease in convective mass fluxes, the increase in horizontal moisture transport, the associated enhancement of the pattern of evaporation minus precipitation and its temporal variance, and the decrease in the horizontal sensible heat transport in the extratropics. A surprising finding is that a robust decrease in extratropical sensible heat transport is found only in the equilibrium climate response, as estimated in slab ocean responses to the doubling of CO2, and not in transient climate change scenarios. All of these robust responses are consequences of the increase in lower-tropospheric water vapor.},
   year = {2006}
}

@article{held10,
   author = {Held, Isaac M. and Winton, Michael and Takahashi, Ken and Delworth, Thomas and Zeng, Fanrong and Vallis, Geoffrey K.},
   title = {{Probing the Fast and Slow Components of Global Warming by Returning Abruptly to Preindustrial Forcing}},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {23},
   number = {9},
   pages = {2418-2427},
   year = {2010}
}

@article{hinzman05,
author = {Hinzman, Larry and Bettez, Neil and Bolton, W. and Chapin, F. and Dyurgerov, Mark and Fastie, Chris and Griffith, Brad and Hollister, Robert and Hope, Allen and Huntington, Henry and Jensen, Anne and Jia, Gensuo and Jorgenson, Torre and Kane, Douglas and Klein, David and Kofinas, Gary and Lynch, Amanda and Lloyd, Andrea and McGuire, A. and Nelson, Frederick and Oechel, Walter and Osterkamp, Thomas and Racine, Charles and Romanovsky, Vladimir and Stone, Robert and Stow, Douglas and Sturm, Matthew and Tweedie, Craig and Vourlitis, George and Walker, Marilyn and Walker, Donald and Webber, Patrick and Welker, Jeffrey and Winker, Kevin and Yoshikawa, Kenji},
title = {{Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Northern Alaska and Other Arctic Regions}},
journal = {Climatic Change},
volume = {72},
number = {3},
pages = {251-298},
keywords = {Earth and Environmental Science},
year = {2005}
}

@article{hoffert80,
   author = {Hoffert, Martin I and Callegari, Andrew J and Hsieh, ChingúÄêTzong},
   title = {The role of deep sea heat storage in the secular response to climatic forcing},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (1978úÄì2012)},
   volume = {85},
   number = {C11},
   pages = {6667-6679},
   ISSN = {2156-2202},
   year = {1980},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{hoffman11,
   author = {Hoffmann, Ary A and Sgrº¤, Carla M},
   title = {Climate change and evolutionary adaptation},
   journal = {Nature},
   volume = {470},
   number = {7335},
   pages = {479-485},
   ISSN = {0028-0836},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{dholland08,
   author = {Holland, David M. and Thomas, Robert H. and de Young, Brad and Ribergaard, Mads H. and Lyberth, Bjarne},
   title = {Acceleration of Jakobshavn Isbrae triggered by warm subsurface ocean waters},
   journal = {Nature Geosci},
   volume = {1},
   number = {10},
   pages = {659-664},
   note = {10.1038/ngeo316},
   ISSN = {1752-0894},
   DOI = {http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n10/suppinfo/ngeo316\_S1.html},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo316},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}


@article{holland01,
author = {Holland, Marika M. and Bitz, Cecilia M. and Weaver, A. J.},
title = {{The influence of sea ice physics on simulations of climate change}},
journal = {J. Geophys. Res.},
volume = {106},
number = {C9},
pages = {19639-19655},
note = {doi:10.1029/2000JC000651},
abstract = {In this study, we examine the influence of ice dynamics and the sub-grid-scale ice thickness distribution on present-day and climate change simulations in a global coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere model of intermediate complexity. Under present-day conditions the sea-ice physics modifies both the annual mean and seasonal variation of ice-ocean-atmosphere conditions. In models with motionless sea ice, the ice volume increases and undergoes a smaller seasonal cycle. Resolving the ice thickness distribution also increases the ice thickness, but enhances the seasonal cycle. The response of the system to increased atmospheric CO2 forcing is also dependent on the sea ice physics. Simulating ice dynamics and the ice thickness distribution enhances the ice area response. However, the ice volume response is diminished when ice dynamics is included and enhanced when the ice thickness distribution is resolved. The oceanic thermohaline circulation and regional air temperature response to global warming is also dependent on the sea ice parameterizations. Additional simulations were performed to quantify the influence of the albedo feedback mechanism on climate change simulations. When the albedo feedback was inactive, amplified warming was still present (although reduced) at high latitudes due to the poleward retreat of the ice cover and larger ocean-atmosphere heat exchange. In these simulations, the albedo feedback accounted for 17\% of the global air temperature increase and over 30\% of the Northern Hemisphere ice area and volume decrease.},
year = {2001}

}

@article{holland03,
   author = {Holland, M. M. and Bitz, C. M.},
   title = {{Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models}},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {21},
   number = {3},
   pages = {221-232},
   abstract = {The Northern Hemisphere polar amplification of climate change is documented in models taking part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and in the new version of the Community Climate System Model. In particular, the magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonality of the surface warming in the Arctic is examined and compared among the models. The range of simulated polar warming in the Arctic is from 1.5 to 4.5 times the global mean warming. While ice-albedo feedback is likely to account for much of the polar amplification, the strength of the feedback depends on numerous physical processes and parametrizations which differ considerably among the models. Nonetheless, the mean sea-ice state in the control (or present) climate is found to influence both the magnitude and spatial distribution of the high-latitude warming in the models. In particular, the latitude of the maximum warming is correlated inversely and significantly with sea-ice extent in the control climate. Additionally, models with relatively thin Arctic ice cover in the control climate tend to have higher polar amplification. An intercomparison of model results also shows that increases in poleward ocean heat transport at high latitudes and increases in polar cloud cover are significantly correlated to amplified Arctic warming. This suggests that these changes in the climate state may modify polar amplification. No significant correlation is found between polar amplification and the control climate continental ice and snow cover.},
   year = {2003}
}

@article{holland06,
   author = {Holland, Marika M. and Bitz, Cecilia M. and Hunke, Elizabeth C. and Lipscomb, William H. and Schramm, Julie L.},
   title = {{Influence of the Sea Ice Thickness Distribution on Polar Climate in CCSM3}},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {19},
   number = {11},
   pages = {2398-2414},
   year = {2006}
}

@article{honda09,
  title={{Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters}},
  author={Honda, Meiji and Inoue, Jun and Yamane, Shozo},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
  volume={36},
  number={8},
  year={2009},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{horton15,
  title={Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends},
  author={Horton, Daniel E and Johnson, Nathaniel C and Singh, Deepti and Swain, Daniel L and Rajaratnam, Bala and Diffenbaugh, Noah S},
  journal={Nature},
  volume={522},
  number={7557},
  pages={465--469},
  year={2015},
  publisher={Nature Publishing Group}
}

@article{hulme12,
   author = {Hulme, M.},
   title = {Climate change: Climate engineering through stratospheric aerosol injection},
   journal = {Prog. Phys. Geogr. Progress in Physical Geography},
   volume = {36},
   number = {5},
   pages = {694-705},
   ISSN = {0309-1333},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{inoue12,
  title={{The role of Barents Sea ice in the wintertime cyclone track and emergence of a warm-Arctic cold-Siberian anomaly}},
  author={Inoue, Jun and Hori, Masatake E and Takaya, Koutarou},
  journal={Journal of Climate},
  volume={25},
  number={7},
  pages={2561--2568},
  year={2012}
}


@article{irvine09,
   author = {Irvine, Peter J and Lunt, Daniel J and Stone, Emma J and Ridgwell, Andy},
   title = {The fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a geoengineered, high CO2 world},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {4},
   number = {4},
   pages = {045109},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{irvine10,
author = {Irvine, Peter J. and Ridgwell, Andy and Lunt, Daniel J.},
title = {Assessing the regional disparities in geoengineering impacts},
journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},
volume = {37},
number = {18},
pages = {L18702},
abstract = {Solar Radiation Management (SRM) Geoengineering may ameliorate many consequences of global warming but also has the potential to drive regional climates outside the envelope of greenhouse-gas induced warming, creating `novel' conditions, and could affect precipitation in some regions disproportionably. Here, using a fully coupled climate model we explore some new methodologies for assessing regional disparities in geoengineering impacts. Taking a 4xCO2 climate and an idealized `sunshade' SRM strategy, we consider different fractions of the maximum theoretical, 4xCO2-cancelling global mean cooling. Whilst regional predictions in particularly relatively low resolution global climate models must be treated with caution, our simulations indicate that it might be possible to identify a level of SRM geoengineering capable of meeting multiple targets, such as maintaining a stable mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and cooling global climate, but without reducing global precipitation below pre-industrial or exposing significant fractions of the Earth to `novel' climate conditions.},
keywords = {geoengineering
climate change
climate impact
1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change
1632 Global Change: Land cover change
1626 Global Change: Global climate models},
year = {2010}
}


@article{irvine12,
   author = {Irvine, Peter J and Sriver, Ryan L and Keller, Klaus},
   title = {Tension between reducing sea-level rise and global warming through solar-radiation management},
   journal = {Nature Climate Change},
   volume = {2},
   number = {2},
   pages = {97-100},
   ISSN = {1758-678X},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{izrael09,
   author = {Izrael, Yu A. and Zakharov, V. M. and Petrov, N. N. and Ryaboshapko, A. G. and Ivanov, V. N. and Savchenko, A. V. and Andreev, Yu V. and Puzov, Yu A. and Danelyan, B. G. and Kulyapin, V. P.},
   title = {Field experiment on studying solar radiation passing through aerosol layers},
   journal = {Russian Meteorology and Hydrology},
   volume = {34},
   number = {5},
   pages = {265-273},
   ISSN = {1068-3739},
   DOI = {10.3103/S106837390905001X},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3103/S106837390905001X},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{jacobs11,
   author = {Jacobs, Stanley S. and Jenkins, Adrian and Giulivi, Claudia F. and Dutrieux, Pierre},
   title = {Stronger ocean circulation and increased melting under Pine Island Glacier ice shelf},
   journal = {Nature Geosci},
   volume = {4},
   number = {8},
   pages = {519-523},
   note = {10.1038/ngeo1188},
   ISSN = {1752-0894},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1188},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{jamieson1996,
   author = {Jamieson, Dale},
   title = {Ethics and intentional climate change},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {33},
   number = {3},
   pages = {323-336},
   ISSN = {0165-0009},
   year = {1996},
   type = {Journal Article}
}


@article{jenkins10,
author = {Jenkins, Adrian and Dutrieux, Pierre and Jacobs, Stanley S. and McPhail, Stephen D. and Perrett, James R. and Webb, Andrew T. and White, David},
title = {{Observations beneath Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica and implications for its retreat}},
journal = {Nature Geosci},
volume = {3},
number = {7},
pages = {468-472},
note = {10.1038/ngeo890},
year = {2010}
}

@article{jones09,
   author = {Jones, Andy and Haywood, Jim and Boucher, Olivier},
   title = {Climate impacts of geoengineering marine stratocumulus clouds},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984-2012)},
   volume = {114},
   number = {D10},
   ISSN = {2156-2202},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{jones10,
   author = {Jones, A. and Haywood, J. and Boucher, O. and Kravitz, B. and Robock, A.},
   title = {{Geoengineering by stratospheric SO2 injection: results from the Met Office HadGEM2 climate model and comparison with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE}},
   journal = {Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.},
   volume = {10},
   number = {3},
   pages = {7421-7434},
   note = {ACPD},
   year = {2010}
}

@article{jones13,
  title={The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)},
  author={Jones, Andy and Haywood, Jim M and Alterskj{\ae}r, Kari and Boucher, Olivier and Cole, Jason NS and Curry, Charles L and Irvine, Peter J and Ji, Duoying and Kravitz, Ben and Egill Kristj{\'a}nsson, J{\'o}n and others},
  journal={Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
  volume={118},
  number={17},
  pages={9743--9752},
  year={2013},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{joughin11,
author = {Joughin, I. and Alley, R. B.},
title = {Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in a warming world},
   journal = {Nature Geoscience},
   volume = {4},
   number = {8},
   pages = {506-513},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{joughin12,
   author = {Joughin, Ian and Alley, Richard B. and Holland, David M.},
   title = {Ice-Sheet Response to Oceanic Forcing},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {338},
   number = {6111},
   pages = {1172-1176},
   abstract = {The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice at accelerating rates, much of which is a response to oceanic forcing, especially of the floating ice shelves. Recent observations establish a clear correspondence between the increased delivery of oceanic heat to the ice-sheet margin and increased ice loss. In Antarctica, most of these processes are reasonably well understood but have not been rigorously quantified. In Greenland, an understanding of the processes by which warmer ocean temperatures drive the observed retreat remains elusive. Experiments designed to identify the relevant processes are confounded by the logistical difficulties of instrumenting ice-choked fjords with actively calving glaciers. For both ice sheets, multiple challenges remain before the fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models needed for rigorous sea-level projection are available.},
   DOI = {10.1126/science.1226481},
   url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6111/1172.abstract},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{joughin14,
author = {Joughin, Ian and Smith, Benjamin E. and Medley, Brooke}, 
title = {Marine Ice Sheet Collapse Potentially Under Way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica},
volume = {344}, 
number = {6185}, 
pages = {735-738}, 
year = {2014}, 
doi = {10.1126/science.1249055}, 
abstract ={Resting atop a deep marine basin, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has long been considered prone to instability. Using a numerical model, we investigated the sensitivity of Thwaites Glacier to ocean melt and whether its unstable retreat is already under way. Our model reproduces observed losses when forced with ocean melt comparable to estimates. Simulated losses are moderate (<0.25 mm per year at sea level) over the 21st century but generally increase thereafter. Except possibly for the lowest-melt scenario, the simulations indicate that early-stage collapse has begun. Less certain is the time scale, with the onset of rapid (>1 mm per year of sea-level rise) collapse in the different simulations within the range of 200 to 900 years.}, 
URL = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/344/6185/735.abstract}, 
eprint = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/344/6185/735.full.pdf}, 
journal = {Science} 
}

@article{kang08,
   author = {Kang, Sarah M. and Held, Isaac M. and Frierson, Dargan M. W. and Zhao, Ming},
   title = {{The Response of the ITCZ to Extratropical Thermal Forcing: Idealized Slab-Ocean Experiments with a GCM}},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {21},
   number = {14},
   pages = {3521-3532},
   abstract = {Using a comprehensive atmospheric GCM coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean, experiments are performed to study the mechanism by which displacements of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) are forced from the extratropics. The northern extratropics are cooled and the southern extratropics are warmed by an imposed cross-equatorial flux beneath the mixed layer, forcing a southward shift in the ITCZ. The ITCZ displacement can be understood in terms of the degree of compensation between the imposed oceanic flux and the resulting response in the atmospheric energy transport in the tropics. The magnitude of the ITCZ displacement is very sensitive to a parameter in the convection scheme that limits the entrainment into convective plumes. The change in the convection scheme affects the extratropical-tropical interactions in the model primarily by modifying the cloud response. The results raise the possibility that the response of tropical precipitation to extratropical thermal forcing, important for a variety of problems in climate dynamics (such as the response of the tropics to the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during glacial maxima or to variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation), may be strongly dependent on cloud feedback. The model configuration described here is suggested as a useful benchmark helping to quantify extratropical-tropical interactions in atmospheric models.},
   year = {2008}
}

@article{kay11,
  title={Inter-annual to multi-decadal Arctic sea ice extent trends in a warming world},
  author={Kay, Jennifer E and Holland, Marika M and Jahn, Alexandra},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
  volume={38},
  number={15},
  year={2011},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{kay15,
  title={{The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability}},
  author={Kay, JE and Deser, C and Phillips, A and Mai, A and Hannay, C and Strand, G and Arblaster, JM and Bates, SC and Danabasoglu, G and Edwards, J and others},
  journal={Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
  volume={96},
  number={8},
  pages={1333--1349},
  year={2015}
}

@article{keith00,
   author = {Keith, David W},
   title = {Geoengineering the Climate: History and Prospect 1},
   journal = {Annual Review of Energy and the Environment},
   volume = {25},
   number = {1},
   pages = {245-284},
   ISSN = {1056-3466},
   year = {2000},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{keith10a,
   author = {Keith, David W. and Parson, Edward and Morgan, M. Granger},
   title = {{Research on global sun block needed now}},
   journal = {Nature},
   volume = {463},
   number = {7280},
   pages = {426-427},
   note = {10.1038/463426a},
   year = {2010a}
}

@article{keith10b,
   author = {Keith, David W.},
   title = {Photophoretic levitation of engineered aerosols for geoengineering},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
   volume = {107},
   number = {38},
   pages = {16428-16431},
   abstract = {Aerosols could be injected into the upper atmosphere to engineer the climate by scattering incident sunlight so as to produce a cooling tendency that may mitigate the risks posed by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. Analysis of climate engineering has focused on sulfate aerosols. Here I examine the possibility that engineered nanoparticles could exploit photophoretic forces, enabling more control over particle distribution and lifetime than is possible with sulfates, perhaps allowing climate engineering to be accomplished with fewer side effects. The use of electrostatic or magnetic materials enables a class of photophoretic forces not found in nature. Photophoretic levitation could loft particles above the stratosphere, reducing their capacity to interfere with ozone chemistry; and, by increasing particle lifetimes, it would reduce the need for continual replenishment of the aerosol. Moreover, particles might be engineered to drift poleward enabling albedo modification to be tailored to counter polar warming while minimizing the impact on equatorial climates.},
   DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1009519107},
   url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/107/38/16428.abstract},
   year = {2010b},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{kidston12,
  title={The relationship between the speed and the latitude of an eddy-driven jet in a stirred barotropic model},
  author={Kidston, Joseph and Vallis, GK},
  journal={Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
  volume={69},
  number={11},
  pages={3251--3263},
  year={2012}
}

@article{kim14,
  title={{Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss}},
  author={Kim, Baek-Min and Son, Seok-Woo and Min, Seung-Ki and Jeong, Jee-Hoon and Kim, Seong-Joong and Zhang, Xiangdong and Shim, Taehyoun and Yoon, Jin-Ho},
  journal={Nature communications},
  volume={5},
  year={2014},
  publisher={Nature Publishing Group}
}

@article{knutti06,
   author = {Knutti, Reto and Meehl, Gerald A. and Allen, Myles R. and Stainforth, David A.},
   title = {Constraining Climate Sensitivity from the Seasonal Cycle in Surface Temperature},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {19},
   number = {17},
   pages = {4224-4233},
   year = {2006}
}

@article{knutti08,
author = {Knutti, Reto and Hegerl, Gabriele C.},
title = {{The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes}},
journal = {Nature Geosci},
volume = {1},
number = {11},
pages = {735-743},
note = {10.1038/ngeo337},
year = {2008}
}

@article{kravitz09,
   author = {Kravitz, Ben and Robock, Alan and Oman, Luke and Stenchikov, Georgiy and Marquardt, Allison B},
   title = {Sulfuric acid deposition from stratospheric geoengineering with sulfate aerosols},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984-2012)},
   volume = {114},
   number = {D14},
   ISSN = {2156-2202},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article {kravitz13,
author = {Kravitz, Ben and Caldeira, Ken and Boucher, Olivier and Robock, Alan and Rasch, Philip J. and Alterskjær, Kari and Karam, Diana Bou and Cole, Jason N. S. and Curry, Charles L. and Haywood, James M. and Irvine, Peter J. and Ji, Duoying and Jones, Andy and Kristjánsson, Jón Egill and Lunt, Daniel J. and Moore, John C. and Niemeier, Ulrike and Schmidt, Hauke and Schulz, Michael and Singh, Balwinder and Tilmes, Simone and Watanabe, Shingo and Yang, Shuting and Yoon, Jin-Ho},
title = {Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
issn = {2169-8996},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50646},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50646},
pages = {n/a--n/a},
keywords = {geoengineering, model intercomparison},
year = {2013},
}

@article{kravitz11,
author = {Kravitz, Ben and Robock, Alan and Boucher, Olivier and Schmidt, Hauke and Taylor, Karl E. and Stenchikov, Georgiy and Schulz, Michael},
title = {{The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)}},
journal = {Atmospheric Science Letters},
volume = {12},
pages = {162-167},
note = {doi:10.1002/asl.316},
year = {2011}
} % @@

@article{kravitz12,
   author = {Kravitz, Ben and MacMartin, Douglas G. and Caldeira, Ken},
   title = {Geoengineering: Whiter skies?},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {39},
   number = {11},
   pages = {L11801},
   ISSN = {1944-8007},
   DOI = {10.1029/2012GL051652},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051652},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{kug15,
  title={{Two distinct influences of Arctic warming on cold winters over North America and East Asia}},
  author={Kug, Jong-Seong and Jeong, Jee-Hoon and Jang, Yeon-Soo and Kim, Baek-Min and Folland, Chris K and Min, Seung-Ki and Son, Seok-Woo},
  journal={Nature Geoscience},
  year={2015},
  publisher={Nature Publishing Group}
}

@article{lawrence08,
   author = {Lawrence, David M. and Slater, Andrew G. and Tomas, Robert A. and Holland, Marika M. and Deser, Clara},
   title = {{Accelerated Arctic land warming and permafrost degradation during rapid sea ice loss}},
   journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},
   volume = {35},
   number = {11},
   pages = {L11506},
   note = {doi:10.1029/2008GL033985},
   abstract = {Coupled climate models and recent observational evidence suggest that Arctic sea ice may undergo abrupt periods of loss during the next fifty years. Here, we evaluate how rapid sea ice loss affects terrestrial Arctic climate and ground thermal state in the Community Climate System Model. We find that simulated western Arctic land warming trends during rapid sea ice loss are 3.5 times greater than secular 21st century climate-change trends. The accelerated warming signal penetrates up to 1500 km inland and is apparent throughout most of the year, peaking in autumn. Idealized experiments using the Community Land Model, with improved permafrost dynamics, indicate that an accelerated warming period substantially increases ground heat accumulation. Enhanced heat accumulation leads to rapid degradation of warm permafrost and may increase the vulnerability of colder permafrost to degradation under continued warming. Taken together, these results imply a link between rapid sea ice loss and permafrost health.},
   keywords = {Arctic climate change
abrupt change
permafrost
1605 Global Change: Abrupt/rapid climate change
1621 Global Change: Cryospheric change
0702 Cryosphere: Permafrost
0750 Cryosphere: Sea ice},
   year = {2008}
}

@article{lenton09,
   author = {Lenton, T. M. and Vaughan, N. E.},
   title = {{The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options}},
   journal = {Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.},
   volume = {9},
   number = {1},
   pages = {2559-2608},
   note = {ACPD},
   year = {2009}
}

@article{lenton11,
   author = {Lenton, Timothy M},
   title = {Beyond 2 C: Redefining dangerous climate change for physical systems},
   journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change},
   volume = {2},
   number = {3},
   pages = {451-461},
   ISSN = {1757-7799},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{lindzen98,
author = {Lindzen, Richard S. and Giannitsis, Constantine},
title = {On the climatic implications of volcanic cooling},
journal = {J. Geophys. Res.},
volume = {103},
number = {D6},
pages = {5929-5941},
abstract = {A simple energy balance model is used to investigate the response to a volcanic-type radiative forcing under different assumptions about the climatic sensitivity of the system. Volcanic eruptions are used as control experiments to investigate the role of the ocean-atmosphere coupling and of diffusive heat uptake by the thermocline. The effect of varying equilibrium climate sensitivity by varying the coupling of the atmosphere and ocean is examined, high sensitivity being associated with weak coupling. A model representing a coupled land-ocean system, with a reasonably realistic representation of the large-scale physics is used. It is found that systems with large equilibrium sensitivities not only respond somewhat more strongly to radiative perturbations but also return to equilibrium with much longer timescales. Based on this behavior pattern, we examine the model response to a series of volcanic eruptions following Krakatoa in 1883. Comparison between the model results and past temperature records seems to suggest that use of small sensitivity parameters is more appropriate. Despite the uncertainties associated with both the physics and the quantitative characteristics of the radiative forcing and the temperature anomalies produced by volcanic eruptions, the present study constitutes a possible test of different assumptions about the sensitivity of the climate system.},
year = {1998}
}

@article{liu12,
  title={Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall},
  author={Liu, Jiping and Curry, Judith A and Wang, Huijun and Song, Mirong and Horton, Radley M},
  journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume={109},
  number={11},
  pages={4074--4079},
  year={2012},
  publisher={National Acad Sciences}
}

@article{lobell11,
   author = {Lobell, David B and Schlenker, Wolfram and Costa-Roberts, Justin},
   title = {Climate trends and global crop production since 1980},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {333},
   number = {6042},
   pages = {616-620},
   ISSN = {0036-8075},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{lorenz14,
  title={Understanding midlatitude jet variability and change using Rossby wave chromatography: Poleward-shifted jets in response to external forcing},
  author={Lorenz, David J},
  journal={Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
  volume={71},
  number={7},
  pages={2370--2389},
  year={2014}
}

@article{lu09,
   author = {Lu, Jianhua and Cai, Ming},
   title = {{Quantifying contributions to polar warming amplification in an idealized coupled general circulation model}},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   abstract = {Abstract  An idealized coupled general circulation model is used to demonstrate that the surface warming due to the doubling of CO2 can still be stronger in high latitudes than in low latitudes even without the negative evaporation feedback in low latitudes and positive ice-albedo feedback in high latitudes, as well as without the poleward latent heat transport. The new climate feedback analysis method formulated in Lu and Cai (Clim Dyn 32:873–885, 2009) is used to isolate contributions from both radiative and non-radiative feedback processes to the total temperature change obtained with the coupled GCM. These partial temperature changes are additive and their sum is convergent to the total temperature change. The radiative energy flux perturbations due to the doubling of CO2 and water vapor feedback lead to a stronger warming in low latitudes than in high latitudes at the surface and throughout the entire troposphere. In the vertical, the temperature changes due to the doubling of CO2 and water vapor feedback are maximum near the surface and decrease with height at all latitudes. The simultaneous warming reduction in low latitudes and amplification in high latitudes by the enhanced poleward dry static energy transport reverses the poleward decreasing warming pattern at the surface and in the lower troposphere, but it is not able to do so in the upper troposphere. The enhanced vertical moist convection in the tropics acts to amplify the warming in the upper troposphere at an expense of reducing the warming in the lower troposphere and surface warming in the tropics. As a result, the final warming pattern shows the co-existence of a reduction of the meridional temperature gradient at the surface and in the lower troposphere with an increase of the meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere. In the tropics, the total warming in the upper troposphere is stronger than the surface warming.},
  year = {2009}
}

@article{lunt08,
   author = {Lunt, D. J. and Ridgwell, A. and Valdes, P. J. and Seale, A.},
   title = {{“Sunshade World”: A fully coupled GCM evaluation of the climatic impacts of geoengineering}},
   journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},
   volume = {35},
   pages = {L12710},
   note = {doi:10.1029/2008GL033674},
   abstract = {Sunshade geoengineering - the installation of reflective mirrors between the Earth and the Sun to reduce incoming solar radiation, has been proposed as a mitigative measure to counteract anthropogenic global warming. Although the popular conception is that geoengineering can re-establish a ‘natural’ pre-industrial climate, such a scheme would itself inevitably lead to climate change, due to the different temporal and spatial forcing of increased CO2 compared to reduced solar radiation. We investigate the magnitude and nature of this climate change for the first time within a fully coupled General Circulation Model. We find significant cooling of the tropics, warming of high latitudes and related sea ice reduction, a reduction in intensity of the hydrological cycle, reduced ENSO variability, and an increase in Atlantic overturning. However, the changes are small relative to those associated with an unmitigated rise in CO2 emissions. Other problems such as ocean acidification remain unsolved by sunshade geoengineering.},
   keywords = {geoengineering
climate change
1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change
1626 Global Change: Global climate models
1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics},
   year = {2008}
}

@article{lyman10,
   author = {Lyman, John M and Good, Simon A and Gouretski, Viktor V and Ishii, Masayoshi and Johnson, Gregory C and Palmer, Matthew D and Smith, Doug M and Willis, Josh K},
   title = {Robust warming of the global upper ocean},
   journal = {Nature},
   volume = {465},
   number = {7296},
   pages = {334-337},
   ISSN = {0028-0836},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{maccracken09,
   author = {MacCracken, Michael C},
   title = {{On the possible use of geoengineering to moderate specific climate change impacts}},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   number = {4},
   pages = {045107},
   abstract = {With significant reductions in emissions likely to require decades and the impacts of projected climate change likely to become more and more severe, proposals for taking deliberate action to counterbalance global warming have been proposed as an important complement to reducing emissions. While a number of geoengineering approaches have been proposed, each introduces uncertainties, complications and unintended consequences that have only begun to be explored. For limiting and reversing global climate change over periods of years to decades, solar radiation management, particularly injection of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, has emerged as the leading approach, with mesospheric reflectors and satellite deflectors also receiving attention. For a number of reasons, tropospheric approaches to solar radiation management present greater challenges if the objective is to reduce the increase in global average temperature. However, such approaches have a number of advantages if the objective is to alleviate specific consequences of climate change expected to cause significant impacts for the environment and society. Among the most damaging aspects of the climate that might be countered are: the warming of low-latitude oceans that observations suggest contribute to more intense tropical cyclones and coral bleaching; the amplified warming of high latitudes and the associated melting of ice that has been accelerating sea level rise and altering mid-latitude weather; and the projected reduction in the loading and cooling influence of sulfate aerosols, which has the potential to augment warming sufficient to trigger methane and carbon feedbacks. For each of these impacts, suitable scientific, technological, socioeconomic, and governance research has the potential to lead to tropospheric geoengineering approaches that, with a well-funded research program, could begin playing a moderating role for some aspects of climate change within a decade.},
   year = {2009}
}

@article{macmartin13,
   author = {MacMartin, Douglas G. and Keith, David W. and Kravitz, Ben and Caldeira, Ken},
   title = {Management of trade-offs in geoengineering through optimal choice of non-uniform radiative forcing},
   journal = {Nature Clim. Change},
   volume = {3},
   number = {4},
   pages = {365-368},
   note = {10.1038/nclimate1722},
   ISSN = {1758-678X},
   DOI = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n4/abs/nclimate1722.html},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1722},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{macmynowski11,
   author = {MacMynowski, Douglas G. and Keith, David W. and Caldeira, Ken and Shin, Ho-Jeong},
   title = {Can we test geoengineering?},
   journal = {Energy \& Environmental Science},
   volume = {4},
   number = {12},
   pages = {5044-5052},
   abstract = {Solar radiation management (SRM), a form of geoengineering, might be used to offset some fraction of the anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate as a means to reduce climate change, but the risks and effectiveness of SRM are uncertain. We examine the possibility of testing SRM through sub-scale deployment as a means to test models of climate response to SRM and explore risks prior to full-scale implementation. Contrary to some claims, this could provide meaningful tests of the climate's response to SRM within a decade. We use idealized simulations with the HadCM3L general circulation model (GCM) to estimate the response to SRM and signal-to-noise ratio for global-scale SRM forcing tests, and quantify the trade-offs between duration and intensity of the test and it's ability to make quantitative measurements of the climate's response to SRM forcing. The response at long time-scales would need to be extrapolated from results measured by a short-term test; this can help reduce the uncertainty associated with relatively rapid climate feedbacks, but uncertainties that only manifest at long time-scales can never be resolved by such a test. With this important caveat, the transient climate response may be bounded with 90\% confidence to be no more than 1.5 [degree]C higher than it's estimated value, in a single decade test that used roughly 1/10th the radiative forcing perturbation of a CO2-doubling. However, tests could require several decades or longer to obtain accurate response estimates, particularly to understand the response of regional hydrological fields which are critical uncertainties. Some fields, like precipitation over land, have as large a response to short period forcing as to slowly-varying changes. This implies that the ratio of the hydrological to the temperature response that results from a sustained SRM deployment will differ from that of either a short-duration test or that which has been observed to result from large volcanic eruptions.},
   ISSN = {1754-5692},
   DOI = {10.1039/C1EE01256H},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1039/C1EE01256H},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{macnaghten11,
   author = {Macnaghten, Phil and Owen, Richard},
   title = {Environmental science: Good governance for geoengineering},
   journal = {Nature},
   volume = {479},
   number = {7373},
   pages = {293-293},
   ISSN = {0028-0836},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{manabe1991,
   author = {Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R. J. and Spelman, M. J. and Bryan, K.},
   title = {{Transient Responses of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Gradual Changes of Atmospheric CO2. Part I. Annual Mean Response}},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {4},
   number = {8},
   pages = {785-818},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004},
   year = {1991},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{marshall03,
   author = {Marshall, Gareth J.},
   title = {{Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from Observations and Reanalyses}},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {16},
   number = {24},
   pages = {4134-4143},
   year = {2003}
}

@article{matthews07,
   author = {Matthews, H. Damon and Caldeira, Ken},
   title = {{Transient climate–carbon simulations of planetary geoengineering}},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
   volume = {104},
   number = {24},
   pages = {9949-9954},
   abstract = {Geoengineering (the intentional modification of Earth's climate) has been proposed as a means of reducing CO-induced climate warming while greenhouse gas emissions continue. Most proposals involve managing incoming solar radiation such that future greenhouse gas forcing is counteracted by reduced solar forcing. In this study, we assess the transient climate response to geoengineering under a business-as-usual CO emissions scenario by using an intermediate-complexity global climate model that includes an interactive carbon cycle. We find that the climate system responds quickly to artificially reduced insolation; hence, there may be little cost to delaying the deployment of geoengineering strategies until such a time as “dangerous” climate change is imminent. Spatial temperature patterns in the geoengineered simulation are comparable with preindustrial temperatures, although this is not true for precipitation. Carbon sinks in the model increase in response to geoengineering. Because geoengineering acts to mask climate warming, there is a direct CO-driven increase in carbon uptake without an offsetting temperature-driven suppression of carbon sinks. However, this strengthening of carbon sinks, combined with the potential for rapid climate adjustment to changes in solar forcing, leads to serious consequences should geoengineering fail or be stopped abruptly. Such a scenario could lead to very rapid climate change, with warming rates up to 20 times greater than present-day rates. This warming rebound would be larger and more sustained should climate sensitivity prove to be higher than expected. Thus, employing geoengineering schemes with continued carbon emissions could lead to severe risks for the global climate system.},
   year = {2007}
}

@article{matthews08,
   author = {Matthews, H. Damon and Caldeira, Ken},
   title = {{Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions}},
   journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},
   volume = {35},
   number = {4},
   pages = {L04705},
   note = {doi:10.1029/2007GL032388},
   abstract = {Current international climate mitigation efforts aim to stabilize levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, human-induced climate warming will continue for many centuries, even after atmospheric CO2 levels are stabilized. In this paper, we assess the CO2 emissions requirements for global temperature stabilization within the next several centuries, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We show first that a single pulse of carbon released into the atmosphere increases globally averaged surface temperature by an amount that remains approximately constant for several centuries, even in the absence of additional emissions. We then show that to hold climate constant at a given global temperature requires near-zero future carbon emissions. Our results suggest that future anthropogenic emissions would need to be eliminated in order to stabilize global-mean temperatures. As a consequence, any future anthropogenic emissions will commit the climate system to warming that is essentially irreversible on centennial timescales.},
   keywords = {carbon dioxide emissions
climate change
climate stabilization
1626 Global Change: Global climate models
1622 Global Change: Earth system modeling
1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics
1615 Global Change: Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling},
   year = {2008}
}

@article{matthews09,
   author = {Matthews, H. Damon and Cao, Long and Caldeira, Ken},
   title = {Sensitivity of ocean acidification to geoengineered climate stabilization},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {36},
   number = {10},
   pages = {L10706},
   ISSN = {1944-8007},
   DOI = {10.1029/2009GL037488},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037488},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{matthews09b,
   author = {Matthews, H. Damon and Turner, Sarah E.},
   title = {Of mongooses and mitigation: ecological analogues to geoengineering},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {4},
   number = {4},
   pages = {045105},
   abstract = {Anthropogenic global warming is a growing environmental problem resulting from unintentional human intervention in the global climate system. If employed as a response strategy, geoengineering would represent an additional intentional human intervention in the climate system, with the intent of decreasing net climate impacts. There is a rich and fascinating history of human intervention in environmental systems, with many specific examples from ecology of deliberate human intervention aimed at correcting or decreasing the impact of previous unintentionally created problems. Additional interventions do not always bring the intended results, and in many cases there is evidence that net impacts have increased with the degree of human intervention. In this letter, we report some of the examples in the scientific literature that have documented such human interventions in environmental systems, which may serve as analogues to geoengineering. We argue that a high degree of system understanding is required for increased intervention to lead to decreased impacts. Given our current level of understanding of the climate system, it is likely that the result of at least some geoengineering efforts would follow previous ecological examples where increased human intervention has led to an overall increase in negative environmental consequences.},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/4/i=4/a=045105},
   year = {2009b},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{mccusker12,
author = {McCusker, Kelly E. and Battisti, David S. and Bitz, Cecilia M.},
title = {The climate response to stratospheric sulfate injections and implications for addressing climate emergencies},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
volume =  {25},
number = {9},
pages = {3096-3116},
year = {2012},
note = {doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00183.1}
}

@article{mccusker14,
  author={Kelly E McCusker and Kyle C Armour and Cecilia M Bitz and David S Battisti},
  title={Rapid and extensive warming following cessation of solar radiation management},
  journal={Environmental Research Letters},
  volume={9},
  number={2},
  pages={024005},
  url={http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/9/i=2/a=024005},
  year={2014},
  abstract={Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a means to alleviate the climate impacts of ongoing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, its efficacy depends on its indefinite maintenance, without interruption from a variety of possible sources, such as technological failure or global cooperation breakdown. Here, we consider the scenario in which SRM --- via stratospheric aerosol injection --- €”is terminated abruptly following an implementation period during which anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued. We show that upon cessation of SRM, an abrupt, spatially broad, and sustained warming over land occurs that is well outside 20th century climate variability bounds. Global mean precipitation also increases rapidly following cessation, however spatial patterns are less coherent than temperature, with almost half of land areas experiencing drying trends. We further show that the rate of warming --- of critical importance for ecological and human systems --- is principally controlled by background GHG levels. Thus, a risk of abrupt and dangerous warming is inherent to the large-scale implementation of SRM, and can be diminished only through concurrent strong reductions in anthropogenic GHG emissions.}
}

@inbook{meehl07,
author = {Meehl, G.A. and Stocker, T.F. and Collins, W.D. and Friedlingstein, P. and Gaye, A.T. and Gregory, J.M. and Kitoh, A. and Knutti, R. and Murphy, J.M. and Noda, A. and Raper, S.C.B. and Watterson, I.G. and Weaver, A.J. and Zhao, Z.-C.},
title = {Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
editor = {Solomon, S. and Qin, D. and Manning, M. and Chen, Z. and Marquis, M. and Averyt, K.B. and Tignor, M. and Miller, H.L.},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
chapter = {Global Climate Projections},
year = {2007}
}

@article{mercer11,
   author = {Mercer, A. M. and Keith, D. W. and Sharp, J. D.},
   title = {Public understanding of solar radiation management},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {6},
   number = {4},
   pages = {044006},
   abstract = {We report the results of the first large-scale international survey of public perception of geoengineering and solar radiation management (SRM). Our sample of 3105 individuals in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom was recruited by survey firms that administer internet surveys to nationally representative population samples. Measured familiarity was higher than expected, with 8\% and 45\% of the population correctly defining the terms geoengineering and climate engineering respectively. There was strong support for allowing the study of SRM. Support decreased and uncertainty rose as subjects were asked about their support for using SRM immediately, or to stop a climate emergency. Support for SRM is associated with optimism about scientific research, a valuing of SRM's benefits and a stronger belief that SRM is natural, while opposition is associated with an attitude that nature should not be manipulated in this way. The potential risks of SRM are important drivers of public perception with the most salient being damage to the ozone layer and unknown risks. SRM is a new technology and public opinions are just forming; thus all reported results are sensitive to changes in framing, future information on risks and benefits, and changes to context.},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/6/i=4/a=044006},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{merryfield13,
  title={{The Canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system. Part I: Models and initialization}},
  author={Merryfield, William J and Lee, Woo-Sung and Boer, George J and Kharin, Viatcheslav V and Scinocca, John F and Flato, Gregory M and Ajayamohan, RS and Fyfe, John C and Tang, Youmin and Polavarapu, Saroja},
  journal={Monthly weather review},
  volume={141},
  number={8},
  pages={2910--2945},
  year={2013}
}

@article{min08,
  title={{Human influence on Arctic sea ice detectable from early 1990s onwards}},
  author={Min, Seung-Ki and Zhang, Xuebin and Zwiers, Francis W and Agnew, Tom},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
  volume={35},
  number={21},
  year={2008},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{minobe08,
   author = {Minobe, Shoshiro and Kuwano-Yoshida, Akira and Komori, Nobumasa and Xie, Shang-Ping and Small, Richard Justin},
   title = {Influence of the Gulf Stream on the troposphere},
   journal = {Nature},
   volume = {452},
   number = {7184},
   pages = {206-209},
   note = {10.1038/nature06690},
   ISSN = {0028-0836},
   DOI = {http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v452/n7184/suppinfo/nature06690_S1.html},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature06690},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}


@article{moore08,
   author = {Moore, Sue E. and Huntington, Henry P.},
   title = {{Arctic marine mammals and climate change: impacts and resilience}},
   journal = {Ecological Applications},
   volume = {18},
   number = {sp2},
   pages = {S157-S165},
   year = {2008}
}

@article{moore10,
author = {Moore, J. C. and Jevrejeva, S. and Grinsted, A.},
title = {Efficacy of geoengineering to limit 21st century sea-level rise},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
abstract = {Geoengineering has been proposed as a feasible way of mitigating anthropogenic climate change, especially increasing global temperatures in the 21st century. The two main geoengineering options are limiting incoming solar radiation, or modifying the carbon cycle. Here we examine the impact of five geoengineering approaches on sea level; SO2 aerosol injection into the stratosphere, mirrors in space, afforestation, biochar, and bioenergy with carbon sequestration. Sea level responds mainly at centennial time scales to temperature change, and has been largely driven by anthropogenic forcing since 1850. Making use a model of sea-level rise as a function of time-varying climate forcing factors (solar radiation, volcanism, and greenhouse gas emissions) we find that sea-level rise by 2100 will likely be 30 cm higher than 2000 levels despite all but the most aggressive geoengineering under all except the most stringent greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The least risky and most desirable way of limiting sea-level rise is bioenergy with carbon sequestration. However aerosol injection or a space mirror system reducing insolation at an accelerating rate of 1 W m-2 per decade from now to 2100 could limit or reduce sea levels. Aerosol injection delivering a constant 4 W m-2 reduction in radiative forcing (similar to a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 18 months) could delay sea-level rise by 40–80 years. Aerosol injection appears to fail cost-benefit analysis unless it can be maintained continuously, and damage caused by the climate response to the aerosols is less than about 0.6\% Global World Product.},
year = {2010}
}

@article{morenocruz12a,
   author = {Moreno-Cruz, Juan B and Ricke, Katharine L and Keith, David W},
   title = {A simple model to account for regional inequalities in the effectiveness of solar radiation management},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {110},
   number = {3-4},
   pages = {649-668},
   ISSN = {0165-0009},
   DOI = {10.1007/s10584-011-0103-z},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0103-z},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{morenocruz12b,
   author = {Moreno-Cruz, Juan B and Keith, David W},
   title = {Climate policy under uncertainty: a case for solar geoengineering},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   pages = {1-14},
   ISSN = {0165-0009},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{mori14,
  title={{Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades}},
  author={Mori, Masato and Watanabe, Masahiro and Shiogama, Hideo and Inoue, Jun and Kimoto, Masahide},
  journal={Nature Geoscience},
  year={2014},
  publisher={Nature Publishing Group}
}

@article{moss10,
author = {Moss, Richard H. and Edmonds, Jae A. and Hibbard, Kathy A. and Manning, Martin R. and Rose, Steven K. and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Carter, Timothy R. and Emori, Seita and Kainuma, Mikiko and Kram, Tom and Meehl, Gerald A. and Mitchell, John F. B. and Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Riahi, Keywan and Smith, Steven J. and Stouffer, Ronald J. and Thomson, Allison M. and Weyant, John P. and Wilbanks, Thomas J.},
title = {The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {463},
number = {7282},
pages = {747-756},
note = {10.1038/nature08823},
year = {2010}
}

@inbook{myhre13,
author = {Myhre, G., and Shindell, D. and Bréon, F.-M. and Collins, W. and Fuglestvedt, J. and Huang, J. and Koch, D. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Lee, D. and Mendoza, B. and Nakajima, T. and Robock, A. and Stephens, G. and Takemura, T. and Zhang, H.},
title = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
editor = {Stocker, T.F., and Qin, D. and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M. and Allen, S.K. and Boschung, J. and Nauels, A. and Xia, Y. and Bex V. and Midgley, P.M},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
chapter = {Anthropogenic and Nature Radiative Forcing},
year = {2013}
}


@article{notz09,
   author = {Notz, Dirk},
   title = {{The future of ice sheets and sea ice: Between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss}},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
   volume = {106},
   number = {49},
   pages = {20590-20595},
   abstract = {We discuss the existence of cryospheric “tipping points” in the Earth's climate system. Such critical thresholds have been suggested to exist for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice and the retreat of ice sheets: Once these ice masses have shrunk below an anticipated critical extent, the ice–albedo feedback might lead to the irreversible and unstoppable loss of the remaining ice. We here give an overview of our current understanding of such threshold behavior. By using conceptual arguments, we review the recent findings that such a tipping point probably does not exist for the loss of Arctic summer sea ice. Hence, in a cooler climate, sea ice could recover rapidly from the loss it has experienced in recent years. In addition, we discuss why this recent rapid retreat of Arctic summer sea ice might largely be a consequence of a slow shift in ice-thickness distribution, which will lead to strongly increased year-to-year variability of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent. This variability will render seasonal forecasts of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent increasingly difficult. We also discuss why, in contrast to Arctic summer sea ice, a tipping point is more likely to exist for the loss of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet.},
   year = {2009}
}

@article{oppenheimer98,
   author = {Oppenheimer, Michael},
   title = {{Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet}},
   journal = {Nature},
   volume = {393},
   number = {6683},
   pages = {325-332},
   note = {10.1038/30661},
   year = {1998}
}

@article{outten12,
  title={{A link between Arctic sea ice and recent cooling trends over Eurasia}},
  author={Outten, SD and Esau, I},
  journal={Climatic Change},
  volume={110},
  number={3-4},
  pages={1069--1075},
  year={2012},
  publisher={Springer}
}

@article{overland10,
  title={{Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice}},
  author={Overland, James E and Wang, Muyin},
  journal={Tellus A},
  volume={62},
  number={1},
  pages={1--9},
  year={2010},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{overland11,
  title={{Warm Arctic-cold continents: climate impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea}},
  author={Overland, James E and Wood, Kevin R and Wang, Muyin},
  journal={Polar Research},
  volume={30},
  year={2011}
}

@article{paolo15,
  title={Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating},
  author={Paolo, Fernando S and Fricker, Helen A and Padman, Laurie},
  journal={Science},
  volume={348},
  number={6232},
  pages={327--331},
  year={2015},
  publisher={American Association for the Advancement of Science}
}

@book{parry07,
title = {IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
booktitle = {IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007},
editor = {Parry, M. L. and Canziani, O. F. and Palutikof, J. P. and van der Linden P. J. and Hanson C. E.},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
year = {2007}
}

@article{payne07,
  title={Numerical modeling of ocean-ice interactions under Pine Island Bay's ice shelf},
  author={Payne, Antony J and Holland, Paul R and Shepherd, Andrew P and Rutt, Ian C and Jenkins, Adrian and Joughin, Ian},
  journal={Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (1978--2012)},
  volume={112},
  number={C10},
  year={2007},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}


@article{peings14,
  title={{Response of the wintertime Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to current and projected Arctic sea ice decline: a numerical study with CAM5}},
  author={Peings, Yannick and Magnusdottir, Gudrun},
  journal={Journal of Climate},
  volume={27},
  number={1},
  pages={244--264},
  year={2014}
}

@article{peings14b,
  title={{Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean}},
  author={Peings, Yannick and Magnusdottir, Gudrun},
  journal={Environmental Research Letters},
  volume={9},
  number={3},
  pages={034018},
  year={2014},
  publisher={IOP Publishing}
}

@article{petoukhov10,
  title={{A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents}},
  author={Petoukhov, Vladimir and Semenov, Vladimir A},
  journal={Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984--2012)},
  volume={115},
  number={D21},
  year={2010},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{pidgeon13,
   author = {Pidgeon, N. and Parkhill, K. and Corner, A. and Vaughan, N.},
   title = {Deliberating stratospheric aerosols for climate geoengineering and the SPICE project},
   journal = {Nat. Clim. Change Nature Climate Change},
   volume = {3},
   number = {5},
   pages = {451-457},
   ISSN = {1758-678X},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{pierce10,
author = {Pierce, Jeffrey R. and Weisenstein, Debra K. and Heckendorn, Patricia and Peter, Thomas and Keith, David W.},
title = {Efficient formation of stratospheric aerosol for climate engineering by emission of condensible vapor from aircraft},
journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},
volume = {37},
number = {18},
pages = {L18805},
note = {doi:10.1029/2010GL043975},
abstract = {Recent analysis suggests that the effectiveness of stratospheric aerosol climate engineering through emission of non-condensable vapors such as SO2 is limited because the slow conversion to H2SO4 tends to produce aerosol particles that are too large; SO2 injection may be so inefficient that it is difficult to counteract the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling. Here we describe an alternate method in which aerosol is formed rapidly in the plume following injection of H2SO4, a condensable vapor, from an aircraft. This method gives better control of particle size and can produce larger radiative forcing with lower sulfur loadings than SO2 injection. Relative to SO2 injection, it may reduce some of the adverse effects of geoengineering such as radiative heating of the lower stratosphere. This method does not, however, alter the fact that such a geoengineered radiative forcing can, at best, only partially compensate for the climate changes produced by CO2.},
keywords = {aerosols
climate
geoengineering
novel methods
stratosphere
0305 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Aerosols and particles
1610 Global Change: Atmosphere
3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability},
year = {2010}
}

@article{polvani11,
author = {Polvani L.M, Previdi M. Deser C.},
title = {Large cancellation, due to ozone recovery, of future Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation trends},
journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett. Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {38},
number = {4},
ISSN = {0094-8276},
year = {2011},
type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{pongratz12,
   author = {Pongratz, J and Lobell, DB and Cao, L and Caldeira, K},
   title = {Crop yields in a geoengineered climate},
   journal = {Nature Climate Change},
   volume = {2},
   number = {2},
   pages = {101-105},
   ISSN = {1758-678X},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{pope12,
   author = {Pope, F. D. and Braesicke, P. and Grainger, R. G. and Kalberer, M. and Watson, I. M. and Davidson, P. J. and Cox, R. A.},
   title = {Stratospheric aerosol particles and solar-radiation management},
   journal = {Nature Clim. Change},
   volume = {2},
   number = {10},
   pages = {713-719},
   note = {10.1038/nclimate1528},
   ISSN = {1758-678X},
   DOI = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n10/abs/nclimate1528.html#supplementary-information},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1528},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{pritchard12,
  author = {Pritchard, H. D. and Ligtenberg, S. R. M. and Fricker, H. A. and Vaughan, D. G. and van den Broeke, M. R. and Padman, L.},
  title = {Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves},
  journal = {Nature},
  volume = {484},
  pages = {502-505},
  DOI = {doi:10.1038/nature10968},
  year = {2012},
  type = {Journal Article}
  }

@article{qian15,
  title={Human influences on changes in the temperature seasonality in mid-to-high latitude land areas},
  author={Qian, Cheng and Zhang, Xuebin},
  journal={Journal of Climate},
  number={2015},
  year={in press}
}

@article{rahmstorf02,
   author = {Rahmstorf, Stefan},
   title = {Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120,000 years},
   journal = {Nature},
   volume = {419},
   number = {6903},
   pages = {207-214},
   note = {10.1038/nature01090},
   ISSN = {0028-0836},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature01090},
   year = {2002},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{ramanathan08,
   author = {Ramanathan, V. and Feng, Y.},
   title = {{On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead}},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
   volume = {105},
   number = {38},
   pages = {14245-14250},
   abstract = {The observed increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the preindustrial era has most likely committed the world to a warming of 2.4°C (1.4°C to 4.3°C) above the preindustrial surface temperatures. The committed warming is inferred from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of the greenhouse forcing and climate sensitivity. The estimated warming of 2.4°C is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols. The range of 1.4°C to 4.3°C in the committed warming overlaps and surpasses the currently perceived threshold range of 1°C to 3°C for dangerous anthropogenic interference with many of the climate-tipping elements such as the summer arctic sea ice, Himalayan–Tibetan glaciers, and the Greenland Ice Sheet. IPCC models suggest that ≈25\% (0.6°C) of the committed warming has been realized as of now. About 90\% or more of the rest of the committed warming of 1.6°C will unfold during the 21st century, determined by the rate of the unmasking of the aerosol cooling effect by air pollution abatement laws and by the rate of release of the GHGs-forcing stored in the oceans. The accompanying sea-level rise can continue for more than several centuries. Lastly, even the most aggressive CO2 mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4°C.},
   year = {2008}
}

@inbook{randall07,
   author = {Randall, D.A. and Wood, R.A. and Bony, S. and Colman, R. and Fichefet, T. and Fyfe, J. and Kattsov, V. and Pitman, A. and Shukla, J. and Srinivasan, J. and Stouffer, R.J. and Sumi, A. and Taylor, K.E.},
   title = {{Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
   booktitle = {{Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
   editor = {Solomon, S. and Qin, D. and Manning, M. and Chen, Z. and Marquis, M. and Averyt, K.B. and Tignor, M. and Miller, H.L.},
   publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
   address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
   chapter = {Climate Models and Their Evaluation},
   year = {2007}
}

@article{rasch08b,
   author = {Rasch, Philip J and Tilmes, Simone and Turco, Richard P and Robock, Alan and Oman, Luke and Chen, Chih-Chieh and Stenchikov, Georgiy L and Garcia, Rolando R},
   title = {{An overview of geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulphate aerosols}},
   journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
   volume = {366},
   number = {1882},
   pages = {4007-4037},
   note = {doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0131},
   abstract = {We provide an overview of geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosols. The state of understanding about this topic as of early 2008 is reviewed, summarizing the past 30 years of work in the area, highlighting some very recent studies using climate models, and discussing methods used to deliver sulphur species to the stratosphere. The studies reviewed here suggest that sulphate aerosols can counteract the globally averaged temperature increase associated with increasing greenhouse gases, and reduce changes to some other components of the Earth system. There are likely to be remaining regional climate changes after geoengineering, with some regions experiencing significant changes in temperature or precipitation. The aerosols also serve as surfaces for heterogeneous chemistry resulting in increased ozone depletion. The delivery of sulphur species to the stratosphere in a way that will produce particles of the right size is shown to be a complex and potentially very difficult task. Two simple delivery scenarios are explored, but similar exercises will be needed for other suggested delivery mechanisms. While the introduction of the geoengineering source of sulphate aerosol will perturb the sulphur cycle of the stratosphere signicantly, it is a small perturbation to the total (stratosphere and troposphere) sulphur cycle. The geoengineering source would thus be a small contributor to the total global source of ‘acid rain’ that could be compensated for through improved pollution control of anthropogenic tropospheric sources. Some areas of research remain unexplored. Although ozone may be depleted, with a consequent increase to solar ultraviolet-B (UVB) energy reaching the surface and a potential impact on health and biological populations, the aerosols will also scatter and attenuate this part of the energy spectrum, and this may compensate the UVB enhancement associated with ozone depletion. The aerosol will also change the ratio of diffuse to direct energy reaching the surface, and this may influence ecosystems. The impact of geoengineering on these components of the Earth system has not yet been studied. Representations for the formation, evolution and removal of aerosol and distribution of particle size are still very crude, and more work will be needed to gain confidence in our understanding of the deliberate production of this class of aerosols and their role in the climate system.},
   year = {2008b}
}

@article{rasch08a,
   author = {Rasch, Philip J. and Crutzen, Paul J. and Coleman, Danielle B.},
   title = {{Exploring the geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulfate aerosols: The role of particle size}},
   journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},
   volume = {35},
   pages = {L02809},
   note = {doi:10.1029/2007GL032179},
   abstract = {Aerosols produced in the lower stratosphere can brighten the planet and counteract some of the effects of global warming. We explore scenarios in which the amount of precursors and the size of the aerosol are varied to assess their interactions with the climate system. Stratosphere-troposphere exchange processes change in response to greenhouse gas forcing and respond to geoengineering by aerosols. Nonlinear feedbacks influence the amount of aerosol required to counteract the warming. More aerosol precursor must be injected than would be needed if stratosphere troposphere exchange processes did not change in response to greenhouse gases or aerosols. Aerosol particle size has an important role in modulating the energy budget. A prediction of aerosol size requires a much more complex representation and assumptions about the delivery mechanism beyond the scope of this study, so we explore the response when particle size is prescribed. More aerosol is required to counteract greenhouse warming if aerosol particles are as large as those seen during volcanic eruptions (compared to the smaller aerosols found in quiescent conditions) because the larger particles are less effective at scattering incoming energy, and trap some outgoing energy. About 1.5 Tg S/yr are found to balance a doubling of CO2 if the particles are small, while perhaps double that may be needed if the particles reach the size seen following eruptions.},
   keywords = {climate change
geoengineering
global warming
0305 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Aerosols and particles
0429 Biogeosciences: Climate dynamics
0341 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Middle atmosphere: constituent transport and chemistry
1610 Global Change: Atmosphere
1622 Global Change: Earth system modeling},
   year = {2008}
}

@article{rasch09,
   author = {Rasch, Philip J. and Latham, John and Chen, Chih-Chieh},
   title = {{Geoengineering by cloud seeding: influence on sea ice and climate system}},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   number = {4},
   pages = {045112},
   note = {(Jack)},
   abstract = {General circulation model computations using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model indicate that increasing cloud reflectivity by seeding maritime boundary layer clouds with particles made from seawater may compensate for some of the effects on climate of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The chosen seeding strategy (one of many possible scenarios) can restore global averages of temperature, precipitation and sea ice to present day values, but not simultaneously. The response varies nonlinearly with the extent of seeding, and geoengineering generates local changes to important climatic features. The global tradeoffs of restoring ice cover, and cooling the planet, must be assessed alongside the local changes to climate features.},
   year = {2009}
}

@article{rasmusson1983,
   author = {Rasmusson, Eugene M. and Wallace, John M.},
   title = {Meteorological Aspects of the El Ni\~{n}o/Southern Oscillation},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {222},
   number = {4629},
   pages = {1195-1202},
   abstract = {The single most prominent signal in year-to-year climate variability is the Southern Oscillation, which is associated with fluctuations in atmospheric pressure at sea level in the tropics, monsoon rainfall, and wintertime circulation over North America and other parts of the extratropics. Although meteorologists have known about the Southern Oscillation for more than a half-century, its relation to the oceanic El Ni\~{n}o phenomenon was not recognized until the late 1960's, and a theoretical understanding of these relations has begun to emerge only during the past few years. The past 18 months have been characterized by what is probably the most pronounced and certainly the best-documented El Ni\~{n}o/Southern Oscillation episode of the past century. In this review meteorological aspects of the time history of the 1982-1983 episode are described and compared with a composite based on six previous events between 1950 and 1975, and the impact of these new observations on theoretical interpretations of the event is discussed.},
   DOI = {10.1126/science.222.4629.1195},
   url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/222/4629/1195.abstract},
   year = {1983},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{rayner03,
  title={Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century},
  author={Rayner, NA and Parker, De E and Horton, EB and Folland, CK and Alexander, LV and Rowell, DP and Kent, EC and Kaplan, A},
  journal={Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984--2012)},
  volume={108},
  number={D14},
  year={2003},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{regehr10,
   author = {Regehr, E. V. and Hunter, C. M. and Caswell, H. and Amstrup, S. C. and Stirling, I.},
   title = {{Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice}},
   journal = {Journal of Animal Ecology},
   volume = {79},
   number = {1},
   pages = {117-127},
   year = {2010}
}

@article{riahi07,
   author = {Riahi, Keywan and Grººbler, Arnulf and Nakicenovic, Nebojsa},
   title = {Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization},
   journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change},
   volume = {74},
   number = {7},
   pages = {887-935},
   ISSN = {0040-1625},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{ricke10,
author = {Ricke, Katharine L. and Morgan, M. Granger and Allen, Myles R.},
title = {{Regional climate response to solar-radiation management}},
journal = {Nature Geosci},
volume = {3},
number = {8},
pages = {537-541},
note = {10.1038/ngeo915},
year = {2010}
}

@article{ricke12,
   author = {Ricke, Katharine L and Rowlands, Daniel J and Ingram, William J and Keith, David W and Morgan, M Granger},
   title = {Effectiveness of stratospheric solar-radiation management as a function of climate sensitivity},
   journal = {Nature Climate Change},
   volume = {2},
   number = {2},
   pages = {92-96},
   ISSN = {1758-678X},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{ricke13,
   author = {Ricke, Katharine L and Moreno-Cruz, Juan B and Caldeira, Ken},
   title = {Strategic incentives for climate geoengineering coalitions to exclude broad participation},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {8},
   number = {1},
   pages = {014021},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{ridgwell09,
   author = {Ridgwell, Andy and Singarayer, Joy S and Hetherington, Alistair M and Valdes, Paul J},
   title = {Tackling regional climate change by leaf albedo bio-geoengineering},
   journal = {Current Biology},
   volume = {19},
   number = {2},
   pages = {146-150},
   ISSN = {0960-9822},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{rignot02,
   author = {Rignot, Eric and Jacobs, Stanley S},
   title = {Rapid bottom melting widespread near Antarctic ice sheet grounding lines},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {296},
   number = {5575},
   pages = {2020-2023},
   ISSN = {0036-8075},
   year = {2002},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{rignot08,
   author = {Rignot, Eric and Bamber, Jonathan L. and van den Broeke, Michiel R. and David, Curt and Li, Yonghong and  van de Berg, Willem Jan and van Meijgaard, Erik},
   title = {{Recent Antarctic ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling}},
   journal = {Nature Geoscience},
   year = {2008},
   volume = {1},
   pages = {106-110},
   DOI = {doi:10.1038/ngeo102},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{rignot13,
   author = {Rignot, E. and Jacobs, S. and Mouginot, J. and Scheuchl, B.},
   title = {Ice Shelf Melting Around Antarctica},
   journal = {Science},
   abstract = {We compare the volume flux divergence of Antarctic ice shelves in 2007?2008 with 1979?2010 surface accumulation and 2003?2008 thinning to determine their rates of melting and mass balance. Basal melt of 1325 ± 235 gigatons per year (Gt/year) exceeds a calving flux of 1089 ± 139 Gt/year, making ice shelf melting the largest ablation process in Antarctica. The giant cold-cavity Ross, Filchner, and Ronne ice shelves covering two-thirds of the total ice shelf area account for only 15\% of net melting. Half of the meltwater comes from 10 small, warm-cavity southeast Pacific ice shelves occupying 8\% of the area. A similar high melt/area ratio is found for six East Antarctic ice shelves, implying undocumented strong ocean thermal forcing on their deep grounding lines.},
   DOI = {10.1126/science.1235798},
   url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2013/06/12/science.1235798.abstract},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{rignot14,
   author = {Rignot, E. and Mouginot, J. and Morlighem, M. and Seroussi, H. and B. Scheuchl},
   title = {{Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica from 1992 to 2011}},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {41},
   pages = {3502-3509},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article},
   DOI = {0.1002/2014GL060140}
}

@article{robock00,
   author = {Robock, Alan},
   title = {{Volcanic Eruptions and Climate}},
   journal = {Rev. Geophys.},
   volume = {38},
   note = {191-219},
   abstract = {Volcanic eruptions are an important natural cause of climate change on many timescales. A new capability to predict the climatic response to a large tropical eruption for the succeeding 2 years will prove valuable to society. In addition, to detect and attribute anthropogenic influences on climate, including effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and ozone-depleting chemicals, it is crucial to quantify the natural fluctuations so as to separate them from anthropogenic fluctuations in the climate record. Studying the responses of climate to volcanic eruptions also helps us to better understand important radiative and dynamical processes that respond in the climate system to both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Furthermore, modeling the effects of volcanic eruptions helps us to improve climate models that are needed to study anthropogenic effects. Large volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere, which convert to sulfate aerosols with an e-folding residence time of about 1 year. Large ash particles fall out much quicker. The radiative and chemical effects of this aerosol cloud produce responses in the climate system. By scattering some solar radiation back to space, the aerosols cool the surface, but by absorbing both solar and terrestrial radiation, the aerosol layer heats the stratosphere. For a tropical eruption this heating is larger in the tropics than in the high latitudes, producing an enhanced pole-to-equator temperature gradient, especially in winter. In the Northern Hemisphere winter this enhanced gradient produces a stronger polar vortex, and this stronger jet stream produces a characteristic stationary wave pattern of tropospheric circulation, resulting in winter warming of Northern Hemisphere continents. This indirect advective effect on temperature is stronger than the radiative cooling effect that dominates at lower latitudes and in the summer. The volcanic aerosols also serve as surfaces for heterogeneous chemical reactions that destroy stratospheric ozone, which lowers ultraviolet absorption and reduces the radiative heating in the lower stratosphere, but the net effect is still heating. Because this chemical effect depends on the presence of anthropogenic chlorine, it has only become important in recent decades. For a few days after an eruption the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of surface air temperature is reduced under the cloud. On a much longer timescale, volcanic effects played a large role in interdecadal climate change of the Little Ice Age. There is no perfect index of past volcanism, but more ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica will improve the record. There is no evidence that volcanic eruptions produce El Niño events, but the climatic effects of El Niño and volcanic eruptions must be separated to understand the climatic response to each.},
   year = {2000}
}

@article{robock02,
   author = {Robock, Alan},
   title = {{PINATUBO ERUPTION: The Climatic Aftermath}},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {295},
   number = {5558},
   pages = {1242-1244},
   year = {2002}
}

@article{robock07,
   author = {Robock, Alan and Adams, Tyler and Moore, Mary and Oman, Luke and Stenchikov, Georgiy},
   title = {Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation effects of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {34},
   number = {23},
   ISSN = {1944-8007},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{robock10,
   author = {Robock, Alan and Bunzl, Martin and Kravitz, Ben and Stenchikov, Georgiy L.},
   title = {{A Test for Geoengineering?}},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {327},
   number = {5965},
   pages = {530-531},
   year = {2010}
}

@article{robock09,
   author = {Robock, Alan and Marquardt, Allison and Kravitz, Ben and Stenchikov, Georgiy},
   title = {{Benefits, risks, and costs of stratospheric geoengineering}},
   journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},
   volume = {36},
   number = {19},
   pages = {L19703},
   note = {doi:10.1029/2009GL039209},
   abstract = {Injecting sulfate aerosol precursors into the stratosphere has been suggested as a means of geoengineering to cool the planet and reduce global warming. The decision to implement such a scheme would require a comparison of its benefits, dangers, and costs to those of other responses to global warming, including doing nothing. Here we evaluate those factors for stratospheric geoengineering with sulfate aerosols. Using existing U.S. military fighter and tanker planes, the annual costs of injecting aerosol precursors into the lower stratosphere would be several billion dollars. Using artillery or balloons to loft the gas would be much more expensive. We do not have enough information to evaluate more exotic techniques, such as pumping the gas up through a hose attached to a tower or balloon system. Anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol injection would cool the planet, stop the melting of sea ice and land-based glaciers, slow sea level rise, and increase the terrestrial carbon sink, but produce regional drought, ozone depletion, less sunlight for solar power, and make skies less blue. Furthermore it would hamper Earth-based optical astronomy, do nothing to stop ocean acidification, and present many ethical and moral issues. Further work is needed to quantify many of these factors to allow informed decision-making.},
   keywords = {geoengineering
1616 Global Change: Climate variability
0370 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Volcanic effects
1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change
1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics},
   year = {2009}
}

@article{robock08,
   author = {Robock, Alan and Oman, Luke and Stenchikov, Georgiy L.},
   title = {{Regional climate responses to geoengineering with tropical and Arctic SO2 injections}},
   journal = {J. Geophys. Res.},
   volume = {113},
   pages = {D16101},
   note = {doi:10.1029/2008JD010050},
   abstract = {Anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol production, so as to reduce solar insolation and cool Earth, has been suggested as an emergency response to geoengineer the planet in response to global warming. While volcanic eruptions have been suggested as innocuous examples of stratospheric aerosols cooling the planet, the volcano analog actually argues against geoengineering because of ozone depletion and regional hydrologic and temperature responses. To further investigate the climate response, here we simulate the climate response to both tropical and Arctic stratospheric injection of sulfate aerosol precursors using a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. We inject SO2 and the model converts it to sulfate aerosols, transports the aerosols and removes them through dry and wet deposition, and calculates the climate response to the radiative forcing from the aerosols. We conduct simulations of future climate with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B business-as-usual scenario both with and without geoengineering and compare the results. We find that if there were a way to continuously inject SO2 into the lower stratosphere, it would produce global cooling. Tropical SO2 injection would produce sustained cooling over most of the world, with more cooling over continents. Arctic SO2 injection would not just cool the Arctic. Both tropical and Arctic SO2 injection would disrupt the Asian and African summer monsoons, reducing precipitation to the food supply for billions of people. These regional climate anomalies are but one of many reasons that argue against the implementation of this kind of geoengineering.},
   keywords = {geoengineering
volcanic eruptions
3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability
3334 Atmospheric Processes: Middle atmosphere dynamics
0370 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Volcanic effects
3354 Atmospheric Processes: Precipitation
1637 Global Change: Regional climate change},
   year = {2008}
}

@article{robock08b,
   author = {Robock, Alan},
   title = {Whither Geoengineering?},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {320},
   number = {5880},
   pages = {1166-1167},
   DOI = {10.1126/science.1159280},
   url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/320/5880/1166.short},
   year = {2008b},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{robock08c,
   author = {Robock, Alan},
   title = {20 reasons why geoengineering may be a bad idea},
   journal = {Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists},
   year = {2008c},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{robock12,
   author = {Robock, A.},
   title = {Will Geoengineering With Solar Radiation Management Ever Be Used?},
   journal = {ETHICS PLACE AND ENVIRONMENT},
   volume = {15},
   number = {2},
   pages = {202-205},
   ISSN = {1366-879X},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{robock13,
   author = {Robock, Alan MacMartin Douglas G. Duren Riley Christensen Matthew W.},
   title = {Studying geoengineering with natural and anthropogenic analogs},
   journal = {Climatic Change Climatic Change},
   number = {7020},
   ISSN = {0165-0009},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{robock14,
  booktitle={Issues Env. Sci. Tech.},
  title={Geoengineering of the Climate System},
  author={Robock, Alan},
  isbn={9781849739535},
  chapter={Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering},
  pages={162-185},
  year={2014},
  number={38},
  publisher={The Royal Society of Chemistry}
}

@article{roe07,
author = {Roe, Gerard H. and Baker, Marcia B.},
title = {{Why Is Climate Sensitivity So Unpredictable?}},
journal = {Science},
volume = {318},
number = {5850},
pages = {629-632},
abstract = {Uncertainties in projections of future climate change have not lessened substantially in past decades. Both models and observations yield broad probability distributions for long-term increases in global mean temperature expected from the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, with small but finite probabilities of very large increases. We show that the shape of these probability distributions is an inevitable and general consequence of the nature of the climate system, and we derive a simple analytic form for the shape that fits recent published distributions very well. We show that the breadth of the distribution and, in particular, the probability of large temperature increases are relatively insensitive to decreases in uncertainties associated with the underlying climate processes.},
year = {2007}
}

@article{roe11,
   author = {Roe, GH and Armour, KC},
   title = {How sensitive is climate sensitivity?},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {38},
   number = {14},
   ISSN = {1944-8007},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{ross09,
   author = {Ross, Andrew and Matthews, H Damon},
   title = {Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {4},
   number = {4},
   pages = {045103},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{russell12,
   author = {Russell, Lynn M and Rasch, Philip J and Mace, Georgina M and Jackson, Robert B and Shepherd, John and Liss, Peter and Leinen, Margaret and Schimel, David and Vaughan, Naomi E and Janetos, Anthony C and Boyd, Philip W and Norby, Richard J and Caldeira, Ken and Merikanto, Joonas and Artaxo, Paulo and Melillo, Jerry and Morgan, M. Granger},
   title = {Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering: A Review for Developing a Science Plan},
   journal = {AMBIO},
   volume = {41},
   number = {4},
   pages = {350-369},
   ISSN = {0044-7447},
   DOI = {10.1007/s13280-012-0258-5},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0258-5},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}


@article{sanderson08,
   author = {Sanderson, Benjamin and Piani, C. and Ingram, W. and Stone, D. and Allen, M.},
   title = {Towards constraining climate sensitivity by linear analysis of feedback patterns in thousands of perturbed-physics GCM simulations},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {30},
   number = {2},
   pages = {175-190},
   abstract = {A linear analysis is applied to a multi-thousand member “perturbed physics" GCM ensemble to identify the dominant physical processes responsible for variation in climate sensitivity across the ensemble. Model simulations are provided by the distributed computing project, climate prediction .net . A principal component analysis of model radiative response reveals two dominant independent feedback processes, each largely controlled by a single parameter change. The leading EOF was well correlated with the value of the entrainment coefficient—a parameter in the model’s atmospheric convection scheme. Reducing this parameter increases high vertical level moisture causing an enhanced clear sky greenhouse effect both in the control simulation and in the response to greenhouse gas forcing. This effect is compensated by an increase in reflected solar radiation from low level cloud upon warming. A set of ‘secondary’ cloud formation parameters partly modulate the degree of shortwave compensation from low cloud formation. The second EOF was correlated with the scaling of ice fall speed in clouds which affects the extent of cloud cover in the control simulation. The most prominent feature in the EOF was an increase in longwave cloud forcing. The two leading EOFs account for 70\% of the ensemble variance in λ—the global feedback parameter. Linear predictors of feedback strength from model climatology are applied to observational datasets to estimate real world values of the overall climate feedback parameter. The predictors are found using correlations across the ensemble. Differences between predictions are largely due to the differences in observational estimates for top of atmosphere shortwave fluxes. Our validation does not rule out all the strong tropical convective feedbacks leading to a large climate sensitivity.},
   keywords = {Earth and Environmental Science},
   year = {2008}
}

@article{sato14,
  title={Influence of the Gulf Stream on the Barents Sea ice retreat and Eurasian coldness during early winter},
  author={Sato, Kazutoshi and Inoue, Jun and Watanabe, Masahiro},
  journal={Environmental Research Letters},
  volume={9},
  number={8},
  pages={084009},
  year={2014},
  publisher={IOP Publishing}
}

@article{schellnhuber11,
   author = {Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim},
   title = {Geoengineering: The good, the MAD, and the sensible},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
   volume = {108},
   number = {51},
   pages = {20277-20278},
   DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1115966108},
   url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/108/51/20277.short},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{schloss12,
   author = {Schloss, Carrie A and Nuº±ez, Tristan A and Lawler, Joshua J},
   title = {Dispersal will limit ability of mammals to track climate change in the Western Hemisphere},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
   volume = {109},
   number = {22},
   pages = {8606-8611},
   ISSN = {0027-8424},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{schmidt12,
  title={Solar irradiance reduction to counteract radiative forcing from a quadrupling of CO 2: climate responses simulated by four earth system models},
  author={Schmidt, H and Alterskj{\ae}r, K and Bou Karam, D and Boucher, O and Jones, A and Kristj{\'a}nsson, JE and Niemeier, U and Schulz, M and Aaheim, A and Benduhn, F and others},
  journal={Earth System Dynamics},
  volume={3},
  number={1},
  pages={63--78},
  year={2012},
  publisher={Copernicus GmbH}
}

@article{schoof07,
author = {Schoof, Christian},
title = {{Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and hysteresis}},
journal = {J. Geophys. Res.},
volume = {112},
number = {F3},
pages = {F03S28},
note = {doi:10.1029/2006JF000664},
abstract = {The ice sheet–ice shelf transition zone plays an important role in controlling marine ice sheet dynamics, as it determines the rate at which ice flows out of the grounded part of the ice sheet. Together with accumulation, this outflow is the main control on the mass balance of the grounded sheet. In this paper, we verify the results of a boundary layer theory for ice flux in the transition zone against numerical solutions that are able to resolve the transition zone. Very close agreement is obtained, and grid refinement in the transition zone is identified as a critical component in obtaining reliable numerical results. The boundary layer theory confirms that ice flux through the grounding line in a two-dimensional sheet-shelf system increases sharply with ice thickness at the grounding line. This result is then applied to the large-scale dynamics of a marine ice sheet. Our principal results are that (1) marine ice sheets do not exhibit neutral equilibrium but have well-defined, discrete equilibrium profiles; (2) steady grounding lines cannot be stable on reverse bed slopes; and (3) marine ice sheets with overdeepened beds can undergo hysteresis under variations in sea level, accumulation rate, basal slipperiness, and ice viscosity. This hysteretic behavior can in principle explain the retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet following the Last Glacial Maximum and may play a role in the dynamics of Heinrich events.},
keywords = {marine ice sheet
West Antarctica
hysteresis
0726 Cryosphere: Ice sheets
0728 Cryosphere: Ice shelves
0730 Cryosphere: Ice streams
1621 Global Change: Cryospheric change},
year = {2007}
}

@article{screen10,
  title={{The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification}},
  author={Screen, James A and Simmonds, Ian},
  journal={Nature},
  volume={464},
  number={7293},
  pages={1334--1337},
  year={2010},
  publisher={Nature Publishing Group}
}

@article{screen14a,
  title={Atmospheric impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss, 1979--2009: separating forced change from atmospheric internal variability},
  author={Screen, James A and Deser, Clara and Simmonds, Ian and Tomas, Robert},
  journal={Climate dynamics},
  volume={43},
  number={1-2},
  pages={333--344},
  year={2014},
  publisher={Springer}
}

@article{screen14b,
  title={Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid-to high-latitudes},
  author={Screen, James A},
  journal={Nature Climate Change},
  year={2014},
  publisher={Nature Publishing Group}
}

@article{screen14c,
  title={Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes},
  author={Screen, James A and Simmonds, Ian},
  journal={Nature Climate Change},
  year={2014},
  publisher={Nature Publishing Group}
}

@article{screen13a,
  title={The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss},
  author={Screen, James A and Simmonds, Ian and Deser, Clara and Tomas, Robert},
  journal={Journal of Climate},
  volume={26},
  number={4},
  pages={1230--1248},
  year={2013}
}

@article{screen13b,
  title={Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation},
  author={Screen, James A},
  journal={Environmental Research Letters},
  volume={8},
  number={4},
  pages={044015},
  year={2013},
  publisher={IOP Publishing}
}

@article{screen13c,
  title={Exploring links between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather},
  author={Screen, James A and Simmonds, Ian},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
  volume={40},
  number={5},
  pages={959--964},
  year={2013},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{screen13d,
  title={Caution needed when linking weather extremes to amplified planetary waves},
  author={Screen, James A and Simmonds, Ian},
  journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume={110},
  number={26},
  pages={E2327--E2327},
  year={2013},
  publisher={National Acad Sciences}
}


@article{serreze06,
   author = {Serreze, Mark and Francis, Jennifer},
   title = {{The Arctic Amplification Debate}},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {76},
   number = {3},
   pages = {241-264},
   abstract = {Abstract  Rises in surface air temperature (SAT) in response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are expected to be amplified in northern high latitudes, with warming most pronounced over the Arctic Ocean owing to the loss of sea ice. Observations document recent warming, but an enhanced Arctic Ocean signal is not readily evident. This disparity, combined with varying model projections of SAT change, and large variability in observed SAT over the 20th century, may lead one to question the concept of Arctic amplification. Disparity is greatly reduced, however, if one compares observed trajectories to near-future simulations (2010–2029), rather than to the doubled-CO2 or late 21st century conditions that are typically cited. These near-future simulations document a preconditioning phase of Arctic amplification, characterized by the initial retreat and thinning of sea ice, with imprints of low-frequency variability. Observations show these same basic features, but with SATs over the Arctic Ocean still largely constrained by the insulating effects of the ice cover and thermal inertia of the upper ocean. Given the general consistency with model projections, we are likely near the threshold when absorption of solar radiation during summer limits ice growth the following autumn and winter, initiating a feedback leading to a substantial increase in Arctic Ocean SATs.},
   year = {2006}
}

@article{shepherd12,
   author = {Shepherd, Andrew et al},
   title = {{A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance}},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {338},
   number = {6111},
   pages = {1183-1189},
   DOI = {10.1126/science.1228102},
   year = {2012}
 }
   
@article{shindell04,
   author = {Shindell, Drew T. and Schmidt, Gavin A. and Mann, Michael E. and Faluvegi, G.},
   title = {{Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600}},
   journal = {J. Geophys. Res.},
   volume = {109},
   pages = {D05104},
   note = {doi:10.1029/2003JD004151},
   abstract = {We have analyzed the mean climate response pattern following large tropical volcanic eruptions back to the beginning of the 17th century using a combination of proxy-based reconstructions and modern instrumental records of cold-season surface air temperature. Warm anomalies occur throughout northern Eurasia, while cool anomalies cover northern Africa and the Middle East, extending all the way to China. In North America, the northern portion of the continent cools, with the anomalies extending out over the Labrador Sea and southern Greenland. The analyses confirm that for two years following eruptions the anomalies strongly resemble the Arctic Oscillation/Northern Annular Mode (AO/NAM) or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Atlantic-Eurasian sector. With our four-century record, the mean response is statistically significant at the 95\% confidence level over much of the Northern Hemisphere land area. However, the standard deviation of the response is larger than the mean signal nearly everywhere, indicating that the anomaly following a single eruption is unlikely to be representative of the mean. Both the mean response and the variability can be successfully reproduced in general circulation model simulations. Driven by the solar heating induced by the stratospheric aerosols, these models produce enhanced westerlies from the lower stratosphere down to the surface. The climate response to volcanic eruptions thus strongly suggests that stratospheric temperature and wind anomalies can affect surface climate by forcing a shift in the AO/NAM or NAO.},
   keywords = {0370 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Volcanic effects
1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics
1610 Global Change: Atmosphere
3362 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Stratosphere/troposphere interactions},
   year = {2004}
}

@article{sigmond10,
   author = {Sigmond, M and Fyfe, JC},
   title = {Has the ozone hole contributed to increased Antarctic sea ice extent?},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {37},
   number = {18},
   ISSN = {1944-8007},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

 @article{sigmond11,
author = {Sigmond, Michael and Reader, MC and Fyfe, JC and Gillett, NP},
title = {Drivers of past and future Southern Ocean change: Stratospheric ozone versus greenhouse gas impacts},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {38},
number = {12},
pages = {L12601},
ISSN = {0094-8276},
year = {2011},
type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{sigmond15,
author = {Sigmond, Michael and Fyfe, JC},
title = {Tropical variability and the recent prevalence of unusually cold North American winters},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
year = {submitted},
type={Journal Article}
}

@article{simmonds15,
  title={{Comparing and contrasting the behaviour of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice over the 35 year period 1979--2013}},
  author={Simmonds, Ian},
  journal={Ann. Glaciol},
  volume={56},
  pages={18--28},
  year={2015}
}

@article{smith12,
   author = {Smith, Karen L. and Polvani, Lorenzo M. and Marsh, Daniel R.},
   title = {Mitigation of 21st century Antarctic sea ice loss by stratospheric ozone recovery},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {39},
   number = {20},
   pages = {L20701},
   ISSN = {1944-8007},
   DOI = {10.1029/2012GL053325},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053325},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{solomon07,
title = {IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
booktitle = {IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007},
editor = {Solomon, S. and Qin, D. and Manning, M. and Chen, Z. and Marquis, M. and Averyt, K. B. and Tignor, M. and Miller, H. L.},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
year = {2007}
}

@article{solomon09,
   author = {Solomon, Susan and Plattner, Gian-Kasper and Knutti, Reto and Friedlingstein, Pierre},
   title = {{Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions}},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
   volume = {106},
   number = {6},
   pages = {1704-1709},
   abstract = {The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450–600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the “dust bowl” era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4–1.0 m if 21st century CO2 concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6–1.9 m for peak CO2 concentrations exceeding ≈1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer.},
   year = {2009}
}

@article{solomon10,
author = {Solomon, Susan and Rosenlof, Karen H. and Portmann, Robert W. and Daniel, John S. and Davis, Sean M. and Sanford, Todd J. and Plattner, Gian-Kasper},
title = {{Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming}},
journal = {Science},
volume = {327},
number = {5970},
pages = {1219-1223},
abstract = {Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased by about 10\% after the year 2000. Here we show that this acted to slow the rate of increase in global surface temperature over 2000–2009 by about 25\% compared to that which would have occurred due only to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. More limited data suggest that stratospheric water vapor probably increased between 1980 and 2000, which would have enhanced the decadal rate of surface warming during the 1990s by about 30\% as compared to estimates neglecting this change. These findings show that stratospheric water vapor is an important driver of decadal global surface climate change.},
year = {2010}
}

@article{sorokina16,
  title={{Observed Atmospheric Coupling between Barents Sea Ice and the Warm-Arctic Cold-Siberian Anomaly Pattern}},
  author={Sorokina, Svetlana A and Li, Camille and Wettstein, Justin J and Kvamst{\o}, Nils Gunnar},
  journal={Journal of Climate},
  volume={29},
  number={2},
  pages={495--511},
  year={2016}
}

@article {spence14,
author = {Spence, Paul and Griffies, Stephen M. and England, Matthew H. and Hogg, Andrew McC. and Saenko, Oleg A. and Jourdain, Nicolas C.},
title = {Rapid subsurface warming and circulation changes of Antarctic coastal waters by poleward shifting winds},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {41},
number = {13},
issn = {1944-8007},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060613},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL060613},
pages = {4601--4610},
keywords = {Southern Ocean, warming, Antarctic Coast, winds, coastal currents},
year = {2014},
}

@article{steig09,
   author = {Steig, Eric J. and Schneider, David P. and Rutherford, Scott D. and Mann, Michael E. and Comiso, Josefino C. and Shindell, Drew T.},
   title = {{Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year}},
   journal = {Nature},
   volume = {457},
   number = {7228},
   pages = {459-462},
   note = {10.1038/nature07669},
   year = {2009}
}

@article{steig13,
author = {Steig, Eric J. and Ding, Qinghua and White, James W. C. and Kuttel, Marcel and Rupper, Summer B. and Neumann, Thomas A. and Neff, Peter D. and Gallant, Ailie J. E. and Mayewski, Paul A. and Taylor, Kendrick C. and Hoffmann, Georg and Dixon, Daniel A. and Schoenemann, Spruce W. and Markle, Bradley R. and Fudge, Tyler J. and Schneider, David P. and Schauer, Andrew J. and Teel, Rebecca P. and Vaughn, Bruce H. and Burgener, Landon and Williams, Jessica and Korotkikh, Elena},
title = {Recent climate and ice-sheet changes in West Antarctica compared with the past 2,000 years},
journal = {Nature Geosci},
volume = {6},
number = {5},
pages = {372-375},
ISSN = {1752-0894},
DOI = {10.1038/ngeo1778 http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n5/abs/ngeo1778.html},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1778},
year = {2013},
type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{stenchikov02,
   author = {Stenchikov, Georgiy and Robock, Alan and Ramaswamy, V. and Schwarzkopf, M. Daniel and Hamilton, Kevin and Ramachandran, S.},
   title = {{Arctic Oscillation response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption: Effects of volcanic aerosols and ozone depletion}},
   journal = {J. Geophys. Res.},
   volume = {107},
   number = {D24},
   pages = {4803},
   note = {doi:10.1029/2002JD002090},
   abstract = {Observations show that strong equatorial volcanic eruptions have been followed by a pronounced positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) for one or two Northern Hemisphere winters. It has been previously assumed that this effect is forced by strengthening of the equator-to-pole temperature gradient in the lower stratosphere, caused by aerosol radiative heating in the tropics. To understand atmospheric processes that cause the AO response, we studied the impact of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption, which produced the largest global volcanic aerosol cloud in the twentieth century. A series of control and perturbation experiments were conducted with the GFDL SKYHI general circulation model to examine the evolution of the circulation in the 2 years following the Pinatubo eruption. In one set of perturbation experiments, the full radiative effects of the observed Pinatubo aerosol cloud were included, while in another only the effects of the aerosols in reducing the solar flux in the troposphere were included, and the aerosol heating effects in the stratosphere were suppressed. A third set of perturbation experiments imposed the stratospheric ozone losses observed in the post-Pinatubo period. We conducted ensembles of four to eight realizations for each case. Forced by aerosols, SKYHI produces a statistically significant positive phase of the AO in winter, as observed. Ozone depletion causes a positive phase of the AO in late winter and early spring by cooling the lower stratosphere in high latitudes, strengthening the polar night jet, and delaying the final warming. A positive phase of the AO was also produced in the experiment with only the tropospheric effect of aerosols, showing that aerosol heating in the lower tropical stratosphere is not necessary to force positive AO response, as was previously assumed. Aerosol-induced tropospheric cooling in the subtropics decreases the meridional temperature gradient in the winter troposphere between 30°N and 60°N. The corresponding reduction of mean zonal energy and amplitudes of planetary waves in the troposphere decreases wave activity flux into the lower stratosphere. The resulting strengthening of the polar vortex forces a positive phase of the AO. We suggest that this mechanism can also contribute to the observed long-term AO trend being caused by greenhouse gas increases because they also weaken the tropospheric meridional temperature gradient due to polar amplification of warming.},
   keywords = {1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics
3319 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: General circulation
3309 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology
3362 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Stratosphere/troposphere interactions
8409 Volcanology: Atmospheric effects},
   year = {2002}
}

@article{stenchikov06,
   author = {Stenchikov, Georgiy and Hamilton, Kevin and Stouffer, Ronald J. and Robock, Alan and Ramaswamy, V. and Santer, Ben and Graf, Hans- F.},
   title = {Arctic Oscillation response to volcanic eruptions in the IPCC AR4 climate models},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {111},
   number = {D7},
   pages = {D07107},
   ISSN = {2156-2202},
   DOI = {10.1029/2005JD006286},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006286},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{stenchikov09,
author = {Stenchikov, Georgiy and Delworth, Thomas L. and Ramaswamy, V. and Stouffer, Ronald J. and Wittenberg, Andrew and Zeng, Fanrong},
title = {Volcanic signals in oceans},
journal = {J. Geophys. Res.},
volume = {114},
number = {D16},
pages = {D16104},
abstract = {Sulfate aerosols resulting from strong volcanic explosions last for 2–3 years in the lower stratosphere. Therefore it was traditionally believed that volcanic impacts produce mainly short-term, transient climate perturbations. However, the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds over a wide range of time scales. The associated processes, especially ocean heat uptake, play a key role in ongoing climate change. However, they are not well constrained by observations, and attempts to simulate them in current climate models used for climate predictions yield a range of uncertainty. Volcanic impacts on the ocean provide an independent means of assessing these processes. This study focuses on quantification of the seasonal to multidecadal time scale response of the ocean to explosive volcanism. It employs the coupled climate model CM2.1, developed recently at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, to simulate the response to the 1991 Pinatubo and the 1815 Tambora eruptions, which were the largest in the 20th and 19th centuries, respectively. The simulated climate perturbations compare well with available observations for the Pinatubo period. The stronger Tambora forcing produces responses with higher signal-to-noise ratio. Volcanic cooling tends to strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Sea ice extent appears to be sensitive to volcanic forcing, especially during the warm season. Because of the extremely long relaxation time of ocean subsurface temperature and sea level, the perturbations caused by the Tambora eruption could have lasted well into the 20th century.},
keywords = {overturning circulation
heat uptake
thermosteric height
sea level
ice extent
3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability
0368 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere: constituent transport and chemistry
1616 Global Change: Climate variability
1635 Global Change: Oceans
0545 Computational Geophysics: Modeling},
year = {2009}
}

@article{stouffer04,
author = {Stouffer, Ronald J.},
title = {Time Scales of Climate Response},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
volume = {17},
number = {1},
pages = {209-217},
year = {2004}
}

@article{stroeve07,
  title={Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast},
  author={Stroeve, Julienne and Holland, Marika M and Meier, Walt and Scambos, Ted and Serreze, Mark},
  journal={Geophysical research letters},
  volume={34},
  number={9},
  year={2007},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{stroeve12,
  title={Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations},
  author={Stroeve, Julienne C and Kattsov, Vladimir and Barrett, Andrew and Serreze, Mark and Pavlova, Tatiana and Holland, Marika and Meier, Walter N},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
  volume={39},
  number={16},
  year={2012},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{swart15,
  title={{Influence of internal variability on Arctic sea-ice trends}},
  author={Swart, Neil C and Fyfe, John C and Hawkins, Ed and Kay, Jennifer E and Jahn, Alexandra},
  journal={Nature Climate Change},
  volume={5},
  number={2},
  pages={86--89},
  year={2015},
  publisher={Nature Publishing Group}
}

@article{takaya05,
  title={{Mechanisms of intraseasonal amplification of the cold Siberian high}},
  author={Takaya, Koutarou and Nakamura, Hisashi},
  journal={Journal of the atmospheric sciences},
  volume={62},
  number={12},
  pages={4423--4440},
  year={2005}
}

@article{tang13,
  title={{Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss}},
  author={Tang, Qiuhong and Zhang, Xuejun and Yang, Xiaohua and Francis, Jennifer A},
  journal={Environmental Research Letters},
  volume={8},
  number={1},
  pages={014036},
  year={2013},
  publisher={IOP Publishing}
}

@article{tewksbury08,
author = {Tewksbury, Joshua J. and Huey, Raymond B. and Deutsch, Curtis A.},
title = {{ECOLOGY: Putting the Heat on Tropical Animals}},
journal = {Science},
volume = {320},
number = {5881},
pages = {1296-1297},
year = {2008}
}

@article{thoma08,
author = {Thoma, Malte and Jenkins, Adrian and Holland, David and Jacobs, Stan},
title = {{Modelling Circumpolar Deep Water intrusions on the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, Antarctica}},
journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},
volume = {35},
number = {18},
pages = {L18602},
note = {doi:10.1029/2008GL034939},
abstract = {Results are presented from an isopycnic coordinate model of ocean circulation in the Amundsen Sea, focusing on the delivery of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) to the inner continental shelf around Pine Island Bay. The warmest waters to reach this region are channeled through a submarine trough, accessed via bathymetric irregularities along the shelf break. Temporal variability in the influx of CDW is related to regional wind forcing. Easterly winds over the shelf edge change to westerlies when the Amundsen Sea Low migrates west and south in winter/spring. This drives seasonal on-shelf flow, while inter-annual changes in the wind forcing lead to inflow variability on a decadal timescale. A modelled period of warming following low CDW influx in the late 1980's and early 1990's coincides with a period of observed thinning and acceleration of Pine Island Glacier.},
keywords = {Amundsen Sea
Circumpolar Deep Water
continental shelf
4207 Oceanography: General: Arctic and Antarctic oceanography
4219 Oceanography: General: Continental shelf and slope processes
4255 Oceanography: General: Numerical modeling
0728 Cryosphere: Ice shelves
1621 Global Change: Cryospheric change},
year = {2008}
}

@article{thompson02,
   author = {Thompson, David W. J. and Solomon, Susan},
   title = {{Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change}},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {296},
   number = {5569},
   pages = {895-899},
   year = {2002}
}

@article{thompson00,
   author = {Thompson, David W. J. and Wallace, John M. and Hegerl, Gabriele C.},
   title = {{Annular Modes in the Extratropical Circulation. Part II: Trends}},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {13},
   number = {5},
   pages = {1018-1036},
   year = {2000}
}

@article{thompson11,
   author = {Thompson, David WJ and Solomon, Susan and Kushner, Paul J and England, Matthew H and Grise, Kevin M and Karoly, David J},
   title = {Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change},
   journal = {Nature Geoscience},
   volume = {4},
   number = {11},
   pages = {741-749},
   ISSN = {1752-0894},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{tilmes08,
author = {Tilmes, Simone and Muller, Rolf and Salawitch, Ross},
title = {{The Sensitivity of Polar Ozone Depletion to Proposed Geoengineering Schemes}},
journal = {Science},
volume = {320},
number = {5880},
pages = {1201-1204},
abstract = {The large burden of sulfate aerosols injected into the stratosphere by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 cooled Earth and enhanced the destruction of polar ozone in the subsequent few years. The continuous injection of sulfur into the stratosphere has been suggested as a "geoengineering" scheme to counteract global warming. We use an empirical relationship between ozone depletion and chlorine activation to estimate how this approach might influence polar ozone. An injection of sulfur large enough to compensate for surface warming caused by the doubling of atmospheric CO2 would strongly increase the extent of Arctic ozone depletion during the present century for cold winters and would cause a considerable delay, between 30 and 70 years, in the expected recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole.},
year = {2008}

}

@article{trenberth07,
   author = {Trenberth, Kevin E. and Dai, Aiguo},
   title = {{Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering}},
   journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},
   volume = {34},
   abstract = {The problem of global warming arises from the buildup of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels and other human activities that change the composition of the atmosphere and alter outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). One geoengineering solution being proposed is to reduce the incoming sunshine by emulating a volcanic eruption. In between the incoming solar radiation and the OLR is the entire weather and climate system and the hydrological cycle. The precipitation and streamflow records from 1950 to 2004 are examined for the effects of volcanic eruptions from El Chichón in March 1982 and Pinatubo in June 1991, taking into account changes from El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 there was a substantial decrease in precipitation over land and a record decrease in runoff and river discharge into the ocean from October 1991–September 1992. The results suggest that major adverse effects, including drought, could arise from geoengineering solutions.},
   keywords = {Pinatubo
hydrological cycle
geoengineering
1655 Global Change: Water cycles
1616 Global Change: Climate variability
1807 Hydrology: Climate impacts
3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability
3354 Atmospheric Processes: Precipitation},
   year = {2007}
}

@article{trenberth07,
   author = {Trenberth, Kevin E. and Dai, Aiguo},
   title = {{Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering}},
   journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},
   volume = {34},
   number = {15},
   pages = {L15702},
   abstract = {The problem of global warming arises from the buildup of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels and other human activities that change the composition of the atmosphere and alter outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). One geoengineering solution being proposed is to reduce the incoming sunshine by emulating a volcanic eruption. In between the incoming solar radiation and the OLR is the entire weather and climate system and the hydrological cycle. The precipitation and streamflow records from 1950 to 2004 are examined for the effects of volcanic eruptions from El Chichón in March 1982 and Pinatubo in June 1991, taking into account changes from El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 there was a substantial decrease in precipitation over land and a record decrease in runoff and river discharge into the ocean from October 1991–September 1992. The results suggest that major adverse effects, including drought, could arise from geoengineering solutions.},
   keywords = {Pinatubo
hydrological cycle
geoengineering
1655 Global Change: Water cycles
1616 Global Change: Climate variability
1807 Hydrology: Climate impacts
3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability
3354 Atmospheric Processes: Precipitation},
   year = {2007}
}

@article{wallace1995,
   author = {Wallace, John M. and Zhang, Yuan and Renwick, James A.},
   title = {Dynamic Contribution to Hemispheric Mean Temperature Trends},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {270},
   number = {5237},
   pages = {780-783},
   abstract = {On the basis of land station data from the Northern Hemisphere, it was determined that roughly half of the temporal variance of monthly mean hemispheric mean anomalies in surface air temperature during the period from 1900 through 1990 were linearly related to the amplitude of a distinctive spatial pattern in which the oceans are anomalously cold and the continents are anomalously warm poleward of 40 degrees north when the hemisphere is warm. Apart from an upward trend since 1975, to which El Niño has contributed, the amplitude time series associated with this pattern resembles seasonally dependent white noise. It is argued that the variability associated with this pattern is dynamically induced and is not necessarily an integral part of the fingerprint of global warming.},
   DOI = {10.1126/science.270.5237.780},
   url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/270/5237/780.abstract},
   year = {1995},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{wang05,
   author = {Wang, Xuanji and Key, Jeffrey R.},
   title = {{Arctic Surface, Cloud, and Radiation Properties Based on the AVHRR Polar Pathfinder Dataset. Part II: Recent Trends}},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {18},
   number = {14},
   pages = {2575-2593},
   abstract = {Over the past 20 yr, some Arctic surface and cloud properties have changed significantly. Results of an analysis of satellite data show that the Arctic has warmed and become cloudier in spring and summer but has cooled and become less cloudy in winter. The annual rate of surface temperature change is 0.057&#176;C for the Arctic region north of 60&#176;N. The surface broadband albedo has decreased significantly in autumn, especially over the Arctic Ocean, indicating a later freeze-up and snowfall. The surface albedo has decreased at an annual rate of &#8722;0.15&#37; (absolute). Cloud fraction has decreased at an annual rate of &#8722;0.6&#37; (absolute) in winter and increased at annual rates of 0.32&#37; and 0.16&#37; in spring and summer, respectively. On an annual time scale, there is no trend in cloud fraction. During spring and summer, changes in sea ice albedo that result from surface warming tend to modulate the radiative effect of increasing cloud cover. On an annual time scale, the all-wave cloud forcing at the surface has decreased at an annual rate of &#8211;0.335 W m&#8722;2, indicating an increased cooling by clouds. There are large correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index for some areas, implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change.},
   year = {2005}
}

@article{wettstein14,
  title={Internal Variability in Projections of Twenty-First-Century Arctic Sea Ice Loss: Role of the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation},
  author={Wettstein, Justin J and Deser, Clara},
  journal={Journal of Climate},
  volume={27},
  number={2},
  pages={527--550},
  year={2014}
}

@inbook{vanvliet06,
   author = {van Vliet, A. and Leemans, R.},
   title = {Rapid speciesúÄô responses to changes in climate require stringent climate protection targets},
   booktitle = {Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change},
   editor = {Schellnhuber HJ and Cramer W and Nakicenovic, N and Wigley T and Yohe G},
   publisher = {Cambridge Univ. Press},
   address = {Cambridge},
   pages = {135úÄì141},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Book Section}
}

 @article{vanvuuren07,
author = {van Vuuren, Detlef P and den Elzen, Michel GJ and Lucas, Paul L and Eickhout, Bas and Strengers, Bart J and van Ruijven, Bas and Wonink, Steven and van Houdt, Roy},
title = {Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs},
journal = {Climatic Change},
volume = {81},
number = {2},
pages = {119-159},
ISSN = {0165-0009},
year = {2007},
type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{vanvuuren11,
   author = {Van Vuuren, Detlef P and Edmonds, Jae and Kainuma, Mikiko and Riahi, Keywan and Thomson, Allison and Hibbard, Kathy and Hurtt, George C and Kram, Tom and Krey, Volker and Lamarque, Jean-Francois},
   title = {The representative concentration pathways: an overview},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {109},
   number = {1-2},
   pages = {5-31},
   ISSN = {0165-0009},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}


@article{vaughan11,
   author = {Vaughan, Naomi E and Lenton, Timothy M},
   title = {A review of climate geoengineering proposals},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {109},
   number = {3-4},
   pages = {745-790},
   ISSN = {0165-0009},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{velicogna09,
author = {Velicogna, I.},
title = {{Increasing rates of ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE}},
journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},
volume = {36},
number = {19},
pages = {L19503},
note = {doi:10.1029/2009GL040222},
abstract = {We use monthly measurements of time-variable gravity from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite gravity mission to determine the ice mass-loss for the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets during the period between April 2002 and February 2009. We find that during this time period the mass loss of the ice sheets is not a constant, but accelerating with time, i.e., that the GRACE observations are better represented by a quadratic trend than by a linear one, implying that the ice sheets contribution to sea level becomes larger with time. In Greenland, the mass loss increased from 137 Gt/yr in 2002–2003 to 286 Gt/yr in 2007–2009, i.e., an acceleration of −30 ± 11 Gt/yr2 in 2002–2009. In Antarctica the mass loss increased from 104 Gt/yr in 2002–2006 to 246 Gt/yr in 2006–2009, i.e., an acceleration of −26 ± 14 Gt/yr2 in 2002–2009. The observed acceleration in ice sheet mass loss helps reconcile GRACE ice mass estimates obtained for different time periods.},
keywords = {ice mass balance
sea level
satellite gravity
0762 Cryosphere: Mass balance
1641 Global Change: Sea level change
0758 Cryosphere: Remote sensing},
year = {2009}
}

@article{vonsalzen13,
  title={{The Canadian fourth generation atmospheric global climate model (CanAM4). Part I: representation of physical processes}},
  author={von Salzen, Knut and Scinocca, John F and McFarlane, Norman A and Li, Jiangnan and Cole, Jason NS and Plummer, David and Verseghy, Diana and Reader, M Cathy and Ma, Xiaoyan and Lazare, Michael and others},
  journal={Atmosphere-Ocean},
  volume={51},
  number={1},
  pages={104--125},
  year={2013},
  publisher={Taylor \& Francis}
}

@article{wallace12,
  title={Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season},
  author={Wallace, John M and Fu, Qiang and Smoliak, Brian V and Lin, Pu and Johanson, Celeste M},
  journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume={109},
  number={36},
  pages={14337--14342},
  year={2012},
  publisher={National Acad Sciences}
}


@article{wigley05,
author = {Wigley, T. M. L. and Ammann, C. M. and Santer, B. D. and Raper, S. C. B.},
title = {Effect of climate sensitivity on the response to volcanic forcing},
journal = {J. Geophys. Res.},
volume = {110},
number = {D9},
pages = {D09107},
abstract = {The results from 16 coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations are used to reduce internally generated noise and to obtain an improved estimate of the underlying response of 20th century global mean temperature to volcanic forcing. An upwelling diffusion energy balance model (UD EBM) with the same forcing and the same climate sensitivity as the AOGCM is then used to emulate the AOGCM results. The UD EBM and AOGCM results are in very close agreement, justifying the use of the UD EBM to determine the volcanic response for different climate sensitivities. The maximum cooling for any given eruption is shown to depend approximately on the climate sensitivity raised to power 0.37. After the maximum cooling for low-latitude eruptions the temperature relaxes back toward the initial state with an e-folding time of 29–43 months for sensitivities of 1–4°C equilibrium warming for CO2 doubling. Comparisons of observed and modeled coolings after the eruptions of Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo give implied climate sensitivities that are consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) range of 1.5–4.5°C. The cooling associated with Pinatubo appears to require a sensitivity above the IPCC lower bound of 1.5°C, and none of the observed eruption responses rules out a sensitivity above 4.5°C.},
keywords = {climate
climate sensitivity
volcanoes
1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics
3309 Atmospheric Processes: Climatology
8409 Volcanology: Atmospheric effects},
year = {2005}
}

@article{wigley06,
author = {Wigley, T. M. L.},
title = {{A Combined Mitigation/Geoengineering Approach to Climate Stabilization}},
journal = {Science},
volume = {314},
number = {5798},
pages = {452-454},
abstract = {Projected anthropogenic warming and increases in CO2 concentration present a twofold threat, both from climate changes and from CO2 directly through increasing the acidity of the oceans. Future climate change may be reduced through mitigation (reductions in greenhouse gas emissions) or through geoengineering. Most geoengineering approaches, however, do not address the problem of increasing ocean acidity. A combined mitigation/geoengineering strategy could remove this deficiency. Here we consider the deliberate injection of sulfate aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. This action could substantially offset future warming and provide additional time to reduce human dependence on fossil fuels and stabilize CO2 concentrations cost-effectively at an acceptable level.},
year = {2006}
}

@article{wilby10,
  title={Robust adaptation to climate change},
  author={Wilby, Robert L and Dessai, Suraje},
  journal={Weather},
  volume={65},
  number={7},
  pages={180--185},
  year={2010},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{winton10,
author = {Winton, Michael and Takahashi, Ken and Held, Isaac M.},
title = {Importance of Ocean Heat Uptake Efficacy to Transient Climate Change},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
volume = {23},
number = {9},
pages = {2333-2344},
year = {2009}
}

  	
@article{woollings14,
  author={T Woollings and B Harvey and G Masato},
  title={Arctic warming, atmospheric blocking and cold European winters in CMIP5 models},
  journal={Environmental Research Letters},
  volume={9},
  number={1},
  pages={014002},
  url={http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/9/i=1/a=014002},
  year={2014},
  abstract={Amplified Arctic warming is expected to have a significant long-term influence on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation by the latter half of the 21st century. Potential influences of recent and near future Arctic changes on shorter timescales are much less clear, despite having received much recent attention in the literature. In this letter, climate models from the recent CMIP5 experiment are analysed for evidence of an influence of Arctic temperatures on midlatitude blocking and cold European winters in particular. The focus is on the variability of these features in detrended data and, in contrast to other studies, limited evidence of an influence is found. The occurrence of cold European winters is found to be largely independent of the temperature variability in the key Barents–Kara Sea region. Positive correlations of the Barents–Kara temperatures with Eurasian blocking are found in some models, but significant correlations are limited.}
}


@article{yang11,
author = {Yang, Haijun and Zhu, Jiang},
title = {Equilibrium thermal response timescale of global oceans},
journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},
volume = {38},
number = {14},
pages = {L14711},
abstract = {The equilibrium response timescale of global oceans is estimated in a fully coupled climate model. In general, the equilibrium timescale increases with depth, except in the polar region. The timescale is approximately 200 years for the ocean for depths above 1 km, and it increases to 1500 years at a depth of 3 km. A layer with a rapid timescale change, referred to as a temporacline, is located at a depth of 1.5–2 km, which is analogous to the permanent thermocline in the ocean. The equilibrium timescale varies with the sign of the change in radiative forcing. The ocean response to surface cooling could be twice as fast as the surface warming because of enhanced vertical mixing, convection and overturning circulation. However, this phenomenon only occurs below the Atlantic temporacline. For the Atlantic upper ocean, the timescale is longer in the cooling case because of the readjustment of the upper ocean to the enhanced Atlantic overturning circulation. In the Pacific, the timescale change in the warming and cooling cases is not as significant as in the Atlantic because of the lack of deep convection.},
keywords = {response timescale
1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
1626 Global Change: Global climate models (3337, 4928)
1627 Global Change: Coupled models of the climate system
1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change (1225, 4321)
1635 Global Change: Oceans (1616, 3305, 4215, 4513)},
year = {2011}
}

@article{yin12,
   author = {Yin, J.},
   title = {Century to multi-century sea level rise projections from CMIP5 models},
   journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett. Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {39},
   number = {17},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{yin11,
   author = {Yin, Jianjun and Overpeck, Jonathan T. and Griffies, Stephen M. and Hu, Aixue and Russell, Joellen L. and Stouffer, Ronald J.},
   title = {Different magnitudes of projected subsurface ocean warming around Greenland and Antarctica},
   journal = {Nature Geosci},
   volume = {4},
   number = {8},
   pages = {524-528},
   note = {10.1038/ngeo1189},
   ISSN = {1752-0894},
   DOI = {http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n8/abs/ngeo1189.html},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1189},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@misc{acia05,
author = {{ACIA}},
title = {{Arctic Climate Impact Assessment}},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
pages = {1042p},
year = {2005}
}

@misc{ams09,
author = {{American Meteorological Society}},
title = {{Geoengineering the Climate System, A Policy Statement of the American Meteorological Society}},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
address = {Boston, MA},
year = {2009}
}

@inbook{nas1992,
  booktitle={Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming:Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base},
   title={Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming:Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base},
  author={{National Academy of Sciences} and {Panel on Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming} and {National Academy of Engineering} and {Institute of Medicine}},
  isbn={9780309043861},
  url={{http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record-id=1605}},
  chapter={28: Geoengineering},
  pages={433-464},
  year={1992},
  publisher={The National Academies Press}
}

@misc{nas10,
author = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{America's Climate Choices: Advancing the Science of Climate Change}},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
year = {2010}
}


@misc{rs09,
author = {{The Royal Society}},
title = {{Geoengineering the climate: science, governance, and uncertainty}},
publisher = {The Royal Society},
address = {London, UK},
ISBN = {978-0-85403-773-5},
year = {2009}
}