This is the start to a project on county-level stochastic projections by age/sex/race.
Actual projection code is SCRIPTS/proj_combined_actualbridgedracedata.R
This repository contains the data and code to verify these findings. If you find any problems, let me know!
I provide county-level population projections by age, sex, and race in five-year intervals for the period 2016-2066 for 3,136 counties. Using historic U.S. census data in temporally rectified county boundaries and race groups for the period 1990-2016, I calculate cohort-change ratios (CCRs) and cohort-change differences (CCDs) for eighteen five-year age groups (0-85+), two sex groups (Male and Female), and four race groups (White NH, Black NH, Other NH, Hispanic) in over 3,000 U.S counties. I then project these CCRs/CCDs using Unobserved Components Models as inputs into leslie matrix population projection models for a blended CCD/CCR population projection. My ex-post facto evaluations using three race groups (White, Black, Other) on the 1969-2000 base period evaluated at 2005, 2010, and 2015 demonstrate confidence in the accuracy of the projections. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs for addressing questions involving sub-national demographic change in the United States.