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“fiifimfimfi ORNL/TM-5927
3 445k 0551053 E 6'7., 77
Expansion Potential for Existing
Nuclear Power Station Sites
D. F. Cope
H. F. Bauman
AK RIDGE NATIONA LABORATORY
CENTRAL RESEARCH LIBRARY
CIRCULATION SECTION
4500N ROOM 175
LIBRARY LOAN COPY
DO NOT TRANSFER TO ANOTHER PERSON
U wish someone else to see this
Eport, s¢énd in name with el 0] il
Yy Wil Irrange a loan
] OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY
OPERATED BY UNION CARBIDE CORPORATION FOR THE ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION
Printed in the United States of America. Available from
National Technical Information Service
U.S. Department of Commerce
5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161
Price: Printed Copy $8.00; Microfiche $3.00
This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States
Government. Neither the United States nor the Energy Research and Development
Administration/United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, nor any of their
employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, makes
any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the
accuracy, completeness or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product or
process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.
ORNL/TM-5927
Dist. Category UC-80
Contract No. W-7405-eng-26
Engineering Technology Division
EXPANSION POTENTIAL FOR EXISTING
NUCLEAR POWER STATION SITES
D. F. Cope H. F. Bauman ‘
Manuscript Completed — September 26, 1977
Date Published — November 1977
Prepared by the |
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY |
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37830
operated by
UNION CARBIDE CORPORATION
for the
T A
3 4456 0551053 ¢
114
| ORNL-DWG 77-16441
- <4 UNITS
B - 4-8 UNITS
C - 8-16 UNITS
0
P
-~ >16 UNITS
OTENTIAL NEW NEC SITE
Map of the United States locating the power plant sites evaluated.
CONTENTS
Page
L O vii
FOREWORD 44ttt ttsctetocesoseesssasscsesasensossscssssnsnssennssas ix
ACKNOWLEDGMENT S 4 .v ittt ineetoenonesossasnsacssnssonsonssannness Xi
LIST OF TABLES it vt et tetteresnsocanscnosonssessssenensoaonenoenss xiii
1. INTRODUCTION i tittnnotteseeaneeseaceoensneossssoassenennss 1
1.1 General cuiieieioetoeseeeeeneeneannosnssnssssosesanneess 1
1.2 PUTPOSE tittetuntnstuoneonenaoeennsnaseesesosesansnnnas 2
Lo S COPE tt ittt eeetaaeoaneenaeesossnsesueesnnennnneannas 3
1.4 Organization tvuveeieeeeeeeeeeeennsnosooseossoonenness 4
2. SOURCES OF INFORMATION ...... Se st r s s ssessasas e s et e o0 ne 5
3 ANALYTICAL METHODS AND LIMITING FACTORS ‘v vervresnosenenen 6
3.1 Cooling Water touieereeteeneearsseneneanoseesoceennass 6
3.2 Heat Dissipation Systems ........... et ee e, 7
3.3 Population Densities ........v0u... sesserseraeas e 8
3.4 Site ATEaS tiiieieieneneeresseeeseseesesesasonnacennss g
3.5 Seismic and Geological Considerations ......eeeeeeses. ‘ 10
3.6 Electrical Demand Considerations ............ e v 11
3.7 Environmmental and Public Acceptance ISSUES +.evueeenas 12
3.8 Meteorological Influences on Site Capacity ........... 13
4, SUMMARY AND CONCLUSTIONS vt vevrsenseeeesnasnesonsnesnennes 15
5. SITE EVALUATIONS ........ Gt e ae v e s resas s st se s aeesaannnnnone 25
5.1 Analysis of Existing Sites ., . . ... .. .ciiirinnrnnnnn 25
5.2 Analysis of Potential Sites .....cieiervereeneennnnnnns 117
6. INDEX OF POWER STATIONS «veecuuneernnnnneasnnnnneoeennnnnn 126
REFERENCES
vii
ABSTRACT
This report is a preliminary analysis of the expansion potential of
the existing nuclear power sites, in particular their potential for devel-
opment into nuclear energy centers (NECs) of 10 GW(e) or greater. The
analysis is based primarily on matching the most important physical
characteristics of a site against the dominating site criteria. Sites
reviewed consist mainly of those in the 1974 through 1976 ERDA Nuclear
Power Stations listings without regard to the present status of reactor
construction plans. Also a small number of potential NEC sites which
are not associated with existing power stations were reviewed. Each
site was categorized in terms of its potential as: A dispersed site of
5 GW(e) or less; a mini-NEC of 5 to 10 GW(e); NECs of 10 to 20 GW(e);
and large NECs of more thah 20 GW(e).
The sites were categorized on their ultimate potential without regard
to political considerations which might restrain their development. The
analysis indicates that nearly 407 of existing sites have potential for
expansion to nuclear energy centers.
ix
FOREWORD
This study was initiated in the early stages of the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission's (NRC) Nuclear Energy Center Site Survey (NECSS). It later
became apparent that the NECSS study should be a general analysis rather
than site-specific. Therefore, work on this report was discontinued.
However, site-specific information is pertinant to NECSS follow-on
studies, and the report has been completed under ERDA sponsorship.
The purpose of the study is to identify and characterize nuclear
power station sites with the potential to accommodate large power genera-
tion capacity.
The analyses reported are intended to assess the maximum potential
of a site and therefore should generally be viewed as approximate upper
limits to site capacity. The capacity currently planned for a site
constitutes a conservative lower limit and the capacity likely to be
ultimately developed at a particular site will undoubtedly lie somewhere
within these two limits.
It must be emphasized that this report carries no implications with
respect to what nuclear electricity generating capacity can or will be
licensed at a site, nor is it to be construed as indicative of what
capacity the utility owners of a site may consider supportable or desir-
able.
xi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of the following
members of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the preparation of this
report: Fred Heddleston for his unstinting cooperation in providing infor-
mation on each of the sites analyzed; Garland C. Samuels for his expert
advice on water availability and consumption; Marjorie E. Fish and
George A. Cristy for site location data; and special thanks to Calvin C.
Burwell for his comments and advice in planning and organizing the study.
Table
No.
‘ 1
s 2
3
xiii
LIST OF TABLES
Title
Data summary on expansion potential of existing
nuclear power station sites
Data summary on several proposed nuclear energy
center sites
Key to Tables 1 and 2
Page
No.
16
21
22
EXPANSION POTENTIAL FOR EXISTING
NUCLEAR POWER STATION SITES
D. F. Cope H. F. Bauman
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 General
Currently the question of what the United States' energy needs will
be over the next 15 to 25 years, and longer, is a matter of considerable
controversy. However, most of the predictions are that there will be some
continued growth in the demand for energy, the chief disagreements being
on what the rate of growth should or will be. There seems to be a greater
unanimity of opinion that the future growth for electricity will be at a
greater rate than the overall energy growth rate, but there are wide
variations in the forecasts of future demand for electricity and especially
the portion of this demand to be met with nuclear power. The latest U.S.
Atomic Energy Commission's (USAEC) forecast' had as its low figure of
nuclear electricity generating capacity 230 gigawatts [GW(e)] by 1985 and
850 GW(e) by 2000. The Energy Research and Development Administration's
(ERDA) 1975 update? of the AEC's 1974 forecasts lowered these figures to
160 GW(e) and 625 GW(e) respectively. More recent ERDA estimates®’*
reduced these figures still further to 127 GW(e) and 380 GW(e). The high
estimates from this most recent forecast are 166 GW(e) for 1985 and
620 GW(e) for the year 2000. Based on the most recent figures the nuclear
power capacity now planned is adequate to meet the 1985 projected needs.
However, in order to meet the year 2000 needs, the number of reactors
would have to be increased by 2 to 3 times, or from about 200 to 400
additional reactors over those now planned. Providing suitable sites
for even this number of reactors would require: (1) increasing the number
of acceptable nuclear power plant sites; (2) placing a greater concentra-
tion of reactors on appropriately qualified sites, or probably both.
In view of this potential growth of nuclear capacity and the
increasing competition for a limited number of good sites, it is not too
early to initiate planning and analyses on the potential capacity of
existing sites and surveys of new sites that might be needed to accommodate
future demands.
The problem of identifying and characterizing potential new sites is
the more difficult and complex of the two tasks. Such an investigation
if done effectively would require a comprehensive cooperative effort
involving the electric utilities and local, state and federal governments.
The recently completed Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Site Survey
Report (NECSS)® developed the basic information required for such a study
but stops short of identifying the requisite number of potential nuclear
power station sites. Thus the study should be carried further to at least
determine whether there is a potential deficiency of good sites, and if so,
which of the electric reliability regions are affected and to what degree.
NRC's letter forwarding their report to Congress recommended that further
activities would be more appropriately conducted by another agency such
as ERDA or the Federal Energy Administration (FEA). Although this recom-
mendation applied specifically to nuclear energy centers it presumably is
equally valid for the more general problem of surveying the availability
of potential nuclear power station sites. The former problem relating to
the capacity of existing sites is the subject of this report.
1.2 Purpose
The purpose of this study was to perform a preliminary analysis on
the expansion potential of existing nuclear power station sites applying
some of the more important and obvious siting criteria. The report also
examines a few sites for which nuclear plants are not now planned but
which have been identified as having a potential for being developed into
nuclear energy centers. Some existing sites also have a potential for
being developed into NECs and these will be identified to the extent
practical within the limitations applying to the study. The term, Nuclear
Energy Center (NEC), is used to describe a concentration of more than
about 10 to 12 GW(e) of nuclear power facilities at a single geographical
location. Nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities, which could be included
in NECs, are not part of the study. The NECSS Report5 considered NECs of
up to 48 GW(e) of capacity, but concluded that there is no indication of
an appropriate role for NECs of more than twenty 1250 MW(e) units until
after the turn of the century. We agree with that conclusion and even
though some sites may appear to have a potential capacity for more than
about 20 GW(e), such large concentrations of power generation capability
should be viewed as highly unlikely for the foreseeable future.
1.3 Scope
The report includes all sites listed in the U.S. Energy Research and
Development Administration's (ERDA) releases on Nuclear Power Reactors in
the United States®>” and prior AEC listings.? These publications list
all nuclear reactors which are operable, being built, or planned. How-
ever, site identification and information is provided only on those reac-
tors for which licenses are being sought and on which safety analysis
reports and sometimes environmental reports have been issued. In some
cases utilities have changed their plans for proceeding with the construc-
tion and operation of an announced reactors but the site information is
still valid and hence included as part of this report.
In addition, other analyses have been performed and reports issued
on potential nuclear sites other than existing reactor sites. Where such
information has been readily available a small number of these sites also
have been included following the analyses of existing sites and are
designated as potential (P) sites, 3712
A siting study by the Washington Public Power Supply System13
analyzed twelve candidate power plant sites in the Pacific Northwest for
thermal (nuclear or fossil fuel) electric power generating stations
having a nominal capacity of at least 3000 MW(e). The findings of this
study are not included in this report though some of the 12 sites appear
to have a potential capacity of much more than 3000 MW(e). There are
undoubtedly other studies of a similar nature but since the primary
objective of this report is to analyze existing sites, no attempt was
made to comprehensively identify and analyze other potentially large
nuclear power plant sites.
Site information included in the report has been limited to summary
information and data needed to characterize and analyze the site. This
includes the site name and location, the utilities involved, the source
and amount of cooling water, the type of heat dissipation system used,
the resident populations at various distances from the sites to the
extent available, the seismic zone in which the site is located, signifi-
cant meterological data where it was available, major transportation sys-
tems serving the site, and major electric demand (load) centers which
conceivably could be served from the site.
The analyses of expansion potential were limited to preliminary
screening type of investigations which considered only easily identified
site features. Thus, it is only a miniscule representation of the effort
and sophistication customarily applied by utilities in their analysis of
generating station sites. Since the information on each site is neces-
sarily skeletal, it should be used only for its contribution to the over-
all siting picture and not taken as definitive for a particular site. The
general approach used and some of the limitations involved in this analysis
are discussed in Sect. 3 of this report.
1.4 Organization
The report is organized into a general introduction, descriptive
sections (which includes the information sources, the analytical methods
used, and discussion of limiting factors to the sites), summary tables of
the sites and their characteristics, and a brief discussion of each site.
In the discussion of the individual sites, the site characteristics are
analyzed to determine the potential capacity of the site and the factors
limiting the capacity.
2. SOURCES OF INFORMATION
Primary sources of information were various published documents and
reports, some of which have been mentioned previously.lhla Much of the
site information was taken from Heddleston's NSIC Reportslu which sum-
marized information contained in the Safety Analysis Reports and the
Environmental Reports. Cooling water data was taken from Heddleston's
reports and Samuels' Assessment of Water Resources for Nuclear Energy
Centers.}?®
General Electric's ''Assessment of Energy Parks vs Dispersed
Electric Power Generating Facilities"'® and The NECSS Study® provided
general sources of information and the AEC reports "Land Use and Nuclear
nl?7
Power Plants and "Nuclear Power Facility Performance Characteristics
nls
for Nuclear Environmental Impact Assessment provided specific case
studies information. The NRC News Releases!?®
provided current information
of licensing and other site related actions. Distances, populations and
transportation networks taken from Heddleston's Reportsll+ were supple-
mented and checked against information taken from The National Atlas??
and The Rand McNally Road Atlas.?! Metropolitan populations were all
22 Note
based on the Rand McNally Metropolitan Area (RMA) populations.
that city populations are quoted where cities are given as location
references, whereas metropolitan area populations are given where the
population in the vicinity of the site is discussed.
In addition, informal evalulations of many sites were obtained from
their owners as a byproduct of a recent survey of siting plans of U.S.
utilities.?3
The utilities generally agreed with our evaluation of the
physical characteristics of the sites, but were very restrained in their
opinions of the ultimate capacity of the sites. The utilities are well
aware, of course, of the political and institutional barriers to developing
large sites. We mention these factors, insofar as they are known, in the
analyses of individual sites, but they were not used as criteria in deter-
mining the ultimate capacity of sites under the ground rules of this study.
3. ANALYTICAL METHODS AND LIMITING FACTORS
The analysis was conducted by examining the significant site features,
measuring these against the criteria which seemed most likely to apply,
trying to determine the limiting factor or factors in each case, and then
making a judgment on the potential capacity of the site applying the
limiting factors. The manner in which these various site parameters were
analyzed with respect to the applicable criteria is discussed below.
3.1 Cooling Water
Sources of cooling water consist of oceans, natural lakes, impounded
bodies of water such as lakes, reservoirs and cooling ponds, and flowing
rivers, streams and canals. Oceans and large lakes were considered to
have sufficient cooling capacity that the available cooling water would
impose no limit on the site capacity. Rivers and flowing streams usually
have a known average and minimum flow rate, there being some variation in
the definitions of what constitutes these flow rates. Where the minimum
flow is given it was assumed that not more than 107 of the flow could be
consumed for the nuclear power station cooling. The site capacity evalua-
tion was based on the water consumption of light water reactors using
evaporative cooling and could be substantially different for other types
of reactors or cooling systems. The cooling capacity of the source was
estimated, based on a consumptive use of 25 cubic feet per sec (cfs) per
1000 MW(e), which is typical of the consumptive use of wet cooling towers.
If information was not available on minimum flows, 2% to 5% of the average
flow was used, the spread representing a judgment factor based on the
stream's characteristics and the extent of water management applied. Im-
pounded reservoirs and cooling ponds posed the most difficult situation,
since an assessment of their cooling capacity requires an extensive amount
of detailed hydrologic data which generally was not readily available.
Thus, the final evaluation of these situations was highly judgemental.
The analysis of the cooling water limitations did not take into
account competing demands for water, the downstream effect on other users,
water allocations, or the relative value of use of the water within
competing demands.
3.2 Heat Dissipation Systems
The analyses of the potential capacities of the various sites were
based on the use of cooling towers except for ocean and large lake sites
where once-through cooling was assumed. In this context the type of heat
dissipation system could be considered as subsidiary to the cooling water
requirements and hence a secondary issue. However, the regulatory situa-
tion is uncertain and there is a segment of opinion which favors the use
of cooling towers for practically all sites, including ocean and lake
shore. There are different opinions on what effect the use of cooling
towers under these conditions might have on the potential capacity of
the site, but it appears that in some instances they could become the pri-
mary limiting factor. Hence, it seems appropriate to discuss heat dis-
sipation systems as they might relate to either increasing or decreasing
the potential capacity of a site.
In the absence of adequate information to make an analytical deter-
mination of how cooling towers should be spaced to avoid possible atmo-
spheric effects, the NECSS Report5 assumed four-unit clusters, spaced
2-1/2 miles apart. General application of this criterion would raise
serious problems for potential NEC sites where the available land is
limited. The number of cooling towers permitted could become the primary
limiting factor to the potential capacity of a site. In addition, salt
water cooling towers may generate environmental impacts which in themselves
could become significant restraints to developing the full capacity of a
site. Therefore, these two aspects of cooling tower use may strongly
influence the potential capacity of a site.
Conversely, the capacity of a site primarily limited by water avail-
ability could be increased by adopting other types of heat dissipation
systems such as dry or wet/dry cooling.
Thus it appears that establishing the potential capacity of a site
may require greater attention to the type of heat dissipation system used
than was necessary for existing sites. Further consideration of these
factors is ‘beyond the scope of this report.
3.3 Population Densities .
Population density criteria and guidelines have emanated from various .
sources particularly the regulatory reviews related to the licensing of
nuclear plants. Also most of the sites considered in this study have
received, or are in the process of receiving, a license for the amount of
nuclear capacity planned for the site. Thus, certain population criteria
have been met and the primary function of this analysis is to determine
what limitations may exist to expansion of this capacity.
The criteria applied were the general population density criteria for
nuclear power plant sites as set forth in 10 CFR Part 100 and the criteria
used to screen sites for NECs as set forth in the NECSS Report5 (Para-
graph 2.5.1, Page 2.7, Part V) which are as follows:
Criteria
Areas having a site population factor (SPF) of less than 0.2 for
30 miles (numerically equivalent to having a population density of less
than 200 persons per square mile uniformly distributed over a 30-mile
radius) are generally considered to be most acceptable for the siting of
nuclear energy centers.
Areas having a site population factor of 0.2 to 0.5 for 30 miles are
probably acceptable but are subject to careful assessment of alternative
siting.
Areas having a site population factor of greater than 0.5 for 30 miles
(which includes all U.S. metropolitan areas) are least acceptable.
Population density distributions are a significant factor in evaluat-
ing the capacity potential of a site. However, the wide latitude and
strong site dependence involved in their application means that conclusions
as to the limits imposed involve large judgmental factors.
3.4 Site Areas
Land area requirements for nuclear power plant sites vary widely
depending upon the topography, the cooling system utilized, the wvalue of
the land, and many other factors. Regulatory requirements on '"Exclusion
Areas" and "Low Population Zones'" must be met as a minimum. The size of
the area in conjunction with the location of the reactors within the area
directly affect the radiation levels at the boundary which provides an
incentive for large land areas if the site is to accommodate a large
generating capacity. Thus, there are many factors involved in determining
how large an area is needed to support a given nuclear capacity.
Site areas for currently licensed nuclear plants vary from a little
more than 0.1 acre/MW(e) to over 100 times this amount. In the latter
cases the additional land often was acquired to provide area for large
cooling lakes or for later expansion. The required land area is smaller
if the site is on the edge of a large body of water or certain categories
of land which can be used as a buffer zone. The NECSS Report (Section
2.2.4, Pages 2—3)° used conservatively for planning purposes 1 acre/MW(e)
as the land area required for an NEC. Geologic, topographic, seismic, or
terrain conditions may increase or decrease the amount of land required.
Thus, there are many factors involved in determing the amount of land need
to support a certain capacity at a given site.
This study looked at the additional land required to support the
estimated potential capacity of the site. Usually the additional land
fequired was not owned by the utility. In these instances a map study
was made of the contiguous areas to determine if there was a reasonable
possibility that the required additional land could be acquired. Factors
considered to be limiting to the acquisition of additional land were block-
ing features such as towns, parks, major highways, etc. One acre/MW(e)
was the criterion used for the desired amount of land required but this was
adjusted to fit local conditions. In most cases where land became the
limiting factor to the capacity of the site about 0.3 acre/MW(e) was
assumed as the minimum requirement. No attempt was made to determine the
highest valued use of the land.
10
3.5 Seismic and Geological Considerations
Each of the sites studied was assigned to a seismic zone in accord-
ance with the following definitions:
Zone 0, area with no reasonable expectation of earthquake damage;
Zone 1, expected minor damage;
Zone 2, expected moderate damage; and,
Zone 3, major destructive earthquakes may occur.
The assigned risk zone was based on Algermissen's seismic risk map
for the conterminous United States, from "The Earthquake History of the
United States."?"
Since most of the sites have been, or are in the process of being,
approved for the construction of one or more reactors, this indicates
acceptable seismic conditions for some given capacity. The chief seismic
problems in expanding the site for additional capacity are a network of
faults, or seismically associated conditions, such as soil liquefaction,
which may limit the number of locations within the potential site area,
ofi which reactors can be constructed.
To a degree, the above described limitations are correctible by
adequate engineering and construction procedures thus reducing the problem
to an economic one. In extreme cases, this would be considered an infea-
sible and unacceptable solution. The investigations necessary to deter-
mine the extent to which these conditions may apply to a given site require
huge and costly efforts and are beyond the scope of this study. Utilities
have developed some of the required information in proving-up the site for
the reactors now planned but in some instances these investigations would
have to be expanded substantially to demonstrate that additional capacity
could be installed on the site. Thus, the analyses performed as. part of
this study were limited to a qualitative judgment based on the seismic zone
involved and any additional information emanating from the review process
on the current planned reactors. In applying the seismic zone criterion,
it was assumed that the cost and time required for investigation of site
suitability would place severe restrictions on considering Zone 3 for
large concentrations of nuclear power. For the other three zones, it was
11
considered that these costs would be acceptable and thus would not con-
stitute an inherent limitation to the site.
Since the geologic and foundation conditions of existing sites have
been accepted for the construction of one or more reactors, it was
assumed that these conditions would prevail throughout the potential
site area. A similar assumption was made with respect to topographical
and general terrain conditions. However, there could be exceptions to
this generality, and a more detailed investigation of some sites might
indicate this assumption invalid but in many instances this would be an
additional economic penalty rather than an inherent limitation.
3.6 Electrical Demand Considerations
A site with a potentially high generating capacity may be incompletely
utilized if the electricity demand within the region fails to match the
supply capability. Thus, lack of demand within an economically viable
distance of the site could be a limitation to developing the capacity of
the site. Utilities continuously survey the power demands within their
regions and historically, have developed their supply capability accord-
ingly. However, some utilities with good sites may lack the demand which
would justify developing these sites to their full capability while other
utilities may have the demand but lack acceptable sites. Hence it is
becoming increasingly important to look at the electricity supply and
demand situation as a regional problem where each region may involve
several utility systems. The trend is for utilities to move in this
direction through their electrical transmission interconnections and
cooperative planning within the nine regional electric reliability coun-
cils. This is a dynamic and complex planning process which requires a
continuing analysis by the utilities, the reliability regions and the
states involved. Such a procedure is greatly beyond the scope of this
report.
The procedure used for this study was to identify the major metro-
politan population areas within 50 to 200 miles of the sites and draw
qualitative conclusions based on the nearness or remoteness of the sites
with respect to these population, and hence electrical load, centers. It
12
can be readily seen that this approach has some serious deficiencies in
failing to consider such significant items as: (1) the possibility of
serving a load center from alternative sites; (2) regional growth pros-
pects; (3) electrical system stability; (4) economics of power trans- .
mission; (5) state regulatory responsibilities; and, (6) the many institu-
tional problems involved. The approach does give some indication of -~
whether the demand is a serious limitation to a site and identifies cer-
tain site-deficient regions. Therefore, notwithstanding its deficiencies,
it is believed that this simplified analysis serves a useful purpose.
3.7 Environmental and Public Acceptance Issues
The criteria for what are acceptable environmental impacts from
nuclear power stations are ill-defined in many critical areas and subject
to influence by public attitudes nationally and within local regions.
Also, the actual environmental impacts vary widely with specific sites
and the immediate surroundings. Consequently this report makes no attempt
to define and quantify the limits imposed by these impacts except to the
extent that they are related to other siting criteria, such as cooling
water for example. Some existing or planned nuclear power stations have
been challenged on the basis of environmental issues and, where known,
these have been taken into account in analyzing the potential capacity of
a site. Also, the general environmental and ecological guidelines which
have been established with respect to coastal zones, estuaries, land use,
etc., have been considered in a subjective way.
However, lack of public acceptance can result from environmental
issues as well as from more intangible issues and varies widely in dif-
ferent localities. Changing situations and attitudes could result in
sites having potential capacities now considered acceptable to be later
considered as unacceptable. Conversely, public and regulatory attitudes
could change in the reverse direction such that environmental and public
acceptance limits on existing sites could be relaxed. In this report the
judgments of what constitute potential site capacities were based pri-
marily on the inherent physical characteristics of the sites with little
attempt to predict the limits imposed by environmental issues or lack of
13
public acceptance. However, these factors, insofar as known, are mentioned
in the analyses of the individual sites, so that the users of this report
can be aware of the intangible factors which may inhibit further develop-
ment of given sites.
3.8 Meteorological Influences on Site Capacity
The effect of meteorology on the potential nuclear capacity of sites
is largely dependent upon dispersion conditions of the atmosphere in the
region of the sites. The effluent dilution capabilities of the atmosphere
are primarily functions of wind speed, wind direction, and atmospheric
stability. Particulates, fog, and precipitation also can affect atmo-
spheric transport. Therefore, these are important considerations in the
original site selection.
In considering the amount of capacity to be placed at a site, it must
be recognized that large heat-producing facilities, such as concentrations
of electric power generating plants, could cause measurable and perhaps
significant atmospheric perturbations. However, the present state of the
art does not permit a quantitative correlation between the meteorological
effects to be expected versus the amount of generating capacity at a
particular site.
The NECSS® report discusses this potential problem in greater detail
and their report assumes that power generating units are grouped in
clusters of four, with the clusters being about 2.5 miles apart. The
probability of perturbing effects between clusters is reduced by this wide
spacing and thus represents a conservative solution to a potential prob-
lem. Such a dispersed pattern can be achieved by having a sufficiently
large site area and generally is obtained by providing 1 acre of area for
each MW(e) of power.
Other weather conditions which may affect large concentrations of
nuclear power are the probability of occurrence, and the intensity, of
severe storms, hurricanes and tornados. The nuclear installations them-
selves are unlikely to be damaged by even violent storms, hurricanes, or
tornados; but cooling towers and transmission towers may be vulnerable to
them. Knowing that such conditions might occur, mitigating engineering
14
and construction measures can be taken. Therefore, these phenomena do
not usually constitute a limitation to the site, but rather constitute
an economic penalty which must be weighted against the advantages of the
particular site. .
Thus, this report provides meteorological data that is readily
available from the information sources previously described. It does .
not attempt to place meteorological limits on site capacities but des-
cribes the dispersion conditions which prevail at a given site in general
terms such as good, average, or poor.
15
4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
This study indicates that, of the 110 existing nuclear sites evalu-
ated, 67 are physically suited for major expansion, and, of these, 44
could be expanded to NEC size [>10 GW(e)]. For 10 of the possible NEC
sites, no significant barriers to unlimited expansion [>20 GW(e)] are
indicated. In addition, of 8 potential NEC sites considered independent
of existing sites, 6 appear suited for NECs, and 3 of these offer no
significant barriers to unlimited expansion.
Thus, it appears that existing and known potential sites could go a
long way toward meeting any presently anticipated need for NEC sites.
However, the map (Frontispiece) shows that many of the favorable sites
are clustered together, and that large areas of the country do not have
known good sites. Since in many cases only one of two or three closely
grouped sites would be required to serve a given region, we estimate that
only about half of the favorable sites should be considered as ultimately
available for development as NECs.
In regard to the individual site evaluations, it must be recognized
that firm guidelines against which the capacity of a site can be specifi-
cally measured do not exist. Rather, one has a set of principles and
general criteria which in application involve a number of site variables.
In addition, there are certain intangibles such as those involved in the
environmental and public acceptance issues. Thus, the final conclusion
on what constitutes the allowable capacity for a given site is highly
subjective and variable with changing attitudes. The final judgment of
course is made by the regulatory authorities but until the final official
decision is made there can be a wide range of estimates by different
experts working with the same body of information. This, combined with the
limited body of information from which this report was developed emphasizes
the uncertainty in the estimates of potential capacity for any given site.
The individual site discussions (Sect. 5) briefly review the site
characteristics, analyze the potential capacity of the site, and identi-
fies the limiting factors to expansion. This information is sumarized in
Tables 1 and 2. See Table 3 for key to abbreviations in Tables 1 and 2.
16
Table 1. Data summary on expansion potentiaml of existing nuclear power station sites
Reference Latitude, N Cooling water Population (thousands) Nuclear generating
NSIC-55 longitude, W Electric ng radius (mile) capacity [GW(e)]} Seismic
Site No. Name anc?l }ocatlon —_— Reliability Present area Limiting factors risk
(utility) Council Flow-cfs/10° Cooling (acres) Potential one
Vol. Page Deg Min Source . e 5 10 50 Planned size
av (min) system
category
AL-1 I 113 Brown's Ferry, Units 13 3k L2 6 Tennessee River L5 MDCT 0.2 3.2 - - 8ko 3.2 D Populaticn and demand 1-2
11 1 Decatur, AL (TVA) 87 7 Wheeler Lake Ve
AlL-2 I1 193 Joseph M., Farley, Units 12 31 13 6 Chattahoochee River 10.6 MDCT 0.5 2.3 - - 800 1.7 C Demand and land 1
Dothan, AL (APC) 85 7 Woodruff Reservoir cS
AL-3 v 106 Alan R. Barton, Units 1—4 32 45 6 Jordan Reservoir 16 MDCT 0.1 1.2 7 - 2,820 L.6 c Water and demand 1
Clanton, AL (APC) 86 2k Coosa River (0.054) cs
AL-L IIT 91 Bellefonte, Units 12 34 43 6 Tennessee River 38.3 NDCT 0.1 2.8 18 - 1,500 2.k D Population and demand 2
Scottsboro, AL (TVA) 85 56 Gunterville Reservoir (2.9) CS
AZ-1 v 114 Palo Verde, Units 1-3 33 23 S Phoenix Sewage Plant 15 MDCT 0.1 0.2 2 - 3,800 3.8 A Water 2
Wintersburg, AZ (APS et al.) 112 52
AR-1 II 61 Arkansas Nuclear, Units 1-2 35 19 7 Arkansas River Lo OT and 0.7 3.7 - - 1,160 1.2 B Land and demand 1
11 235 Russellville, AR (APL) 93 14 Dardanelle Reservoir (1.5-3.0) CSCT
CA-1 I 22 Humboldt Bay, Unit 3 Lo i 9 Humboldt Bay NA OT 1.7 38 Lg - 143 o7 A Coastal zone and public 23
Eureka, CA (PG&E) 124 13 Pacific Ocean acceptance
CA-2 1 36 San Onofre, Units 1-3 33 22 9 Pacific Qcean NA oT C.5 25 Lo - 84 2.7 C Coastal zone and public acceptance 3
II 217 San Clemente, CA (SCE) 117 34
CA-3 I 162 Diablo Canyon, Units 1-2 35 13 9 Pacific Ocean NA 0T 0 0 4,5 - 750 2.2 C Coastal zone and public acceptance 3
II 103 Diablo, CA (PG&E) 120 51
CA-L IIT 15 Mendocino, Units 1-2 38 55 9 Pacific Ocean oT 0.6 1.2 - - 410 0 A Public acceptance and seismic 3