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perspectives.html
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<h1 class="title toc-ignore">Perspectives</h1>
<h4 class="author"></h4>
</div>
<hr />
<div id="this-page" class="section level3">
<h3>This page:</h3>
<ul>
<li>Introduction to general modeling principles</li>
<li>Modeling advice for using BpS models</li>
</ul>
<hr />
</div>
<div id="models-models-everywhere" class="section level2">
<h2>Models, Models Everywhere</h2>
<p>Models are everywhere, they may be behind the scenes or in full view.
Some common examples of models:</p>
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Photo: © Chris Leipelt
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<ul>
<li>weather forecasts</li>
<li>measuring the state of the economy</li>
<li>assessing the condition of a landscape</li>
<li>forecasting a pandemic</li>
<li>maps</li>
</ul>
<p><br> Regardless of their complexity, all models are by definition a
simplification of reality. Like the model airplane - it “flies” like an
airplane but it cannot carry cargo or passengers.</p>
<p><br> <br></p>
<center>
<img src="images/model-simple-vs-complex1.jpg" width="45%" />
</center>
<p><br></p>
<blockquote>
<p>“All models are wrong, so why do we create and use them?” - George
Box</p>
</blockquote>
<p><br> We create and use models because (as Box <em>also</em> said)
they can be useful. Models can illuminate through prediction or
explanation. They can promote understanding and exploration if used
properly.</p>
<p><strong>Balance and relevance</strong> are what can make a model
illuminating.</p>
<center>
<img src="images/balance-relevance.jpg" width="45%" />
</center>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div id="developers-vs-users-key-considerations" class="section level2">
<h2>Developers vs Users: Key Considerations</h2>
<p>For the model developer, the key is to balance <strong>precision and
bias</strong> of the outputs with the relevance of the model. The goal
is to hit your application sweet spot.</p>
<p><br></p>
<center>
<p><img src="images/model-complexity.png" width="55%" /></p>
</center>
<center>
Image courtesy: <a href="francescopochetti.com" target="blank">Francesco
Pochetti</a>
</center>
<p><br></p>
<p>The model should provide useful information but must also function
for the user (i.e. have the right level of complexity). Complexity
should have a purpose: to provide more refined information, or in some
cases provide the same information with more fidelity.</p>
<div id="complex-models" class="section level3">
<h3>Complex models</h3>
<ul>
<li>typically require more input information</li>
<li>are more difficult to develop and de-bug</li>
<li>take longer to run</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p><a href="./VegetationModeling.html" target="blank">LANDFIRE BpS
models</a>, with their limited number of states and transitions, are
less complex and provide relatively few and coarser level outputs. This
also makes them easier to create and use.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Models such as <a
href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/40241"
target="blank">SIMPPLLE</a> and <a href="http://www.landis-ii.org/"
target="blank">LANDIS II</a> sit nearer the middle or upper end of the
complexity scale and can provide more types of outputs but at higher
operational cost.</p>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div id="understanding-model-characterstics" class="section level3">
<h3>Understanding model characterstics</h3>
<br>
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<ul>
<li>What factors/inputs are included?</li>
<li>What factors/inputs are <em>not</em> included?</li>
<li>Can you provide the inputs at the level of accuracy required?</li>
<li>What modeling technique was used?</li>
<li>How was the model intended to be applied?</li>
<li>What is the “scale” of the model?</li>
</ul>
</div>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div id="advice-for-using-bps-models" class="section level3">
<h3>Advice for using BpS models</h3>
<ol style="list-style-type: decimal">
<li><p>Adhere to established modeling standards.</p></li>
<li><p>Have a goal and a plan. Don’t just wing it!</p></li>
<li><p>Work through the model changes in a stepwise fashion. Add states
and transitions one at a time.</p></li>
<li><p>Review the results and plan the next steps.</p></li>
<li><p>Keep it simple. The number of states directly impacts the number
of transitions you need and the amount of information you need to
support the model. As the model becomes more complicated it becomes more
difficult to create, parametrize, understand, modify and utilize
appropriately.</p></li>
<li><p>Expect the unexpected. If you knew the answer with certainty, you
probably did not need the model. An answer that seems strange to you may
be correct, and indeed illuminating.</p></li>
</ol>
<hr />
<div id="whats-next" class="section level4">
<h4>What’s next?</h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="./ModelingWork.html" target="blank">locate</a>, download,
import a model</li>
<li>make sense of the parts of model description</li>
<li>learn how to <a href="./ModelingWork.html" target="blank">modify</a>
a model by watching the step-by-step tutorial videos for using LANDFIRE
data in SyncroSim</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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