references.bib

@TechReport{Naturelles2016,
  author = {{Ministere des Ressources Naturelles}},
  institution = {Direction des inventaires forestier, Minist{\`{e}}re des Ressources naturelles,Qu{\'{e}}bec},
  title = {{Norme d'inventaire ecoforestier: placettes-echantillons temporaires}},
  year = {2016},
}
@TechReport{OConnell2007,
  author = {M B O'Connell and E B LaPoint and J A Turner and T Ridley and D Boyer and A Wilson and K L Waddell and B L Conkling},
  institution = {US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service},
  title = {{The forest inventory and analysis database: Database description and users forest inventory and analysis program}},
  year = {2007},
}
@article{burns1990silvics,
  title={Silvics of North America: 1. Conifers; 2. Hardwoods Agriculture Handbook 654},
  author={Burns, Russell M and Honkala, Barbara H and others},
  journal={US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington, DC},
  year={1990}
}
@article{Carroll2011,
author = {Carroll, Ian T. and Cardinale, Bradley J. and Nisbet, Roger M.},
title = {Niche and fitness differences relate the maintenance of diversity to ecosystem function},
journal = {Ecology},
volume = {92},
number = {5},
pages = {1157-1165},
keywords = {biodiversity, coexistence, ecosystem function, MacArthur's consumer-resource model, niche and fitness differences, stabilizing and equalizing mechanisms},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1890/10-0302.1},
url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1890/10-0302.1},
eprint = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1890/10-0302.1},
abstract = {The frequently observed positive correlation between species diversity and community biomass is thought to depend on both the degree of resource partitioning and on competitive dominance between consumers, two properties that are also central to theories of species coexistence. To make an explicit link between theory on the causes and consequences of biodiversity, we define in a precise way two kinds of differences among species: niche differences, which promote coexistence, and relative fitness differences, which promote competitive exclusion. In a classic model of exploitative competition, promoting coexistence by increasing niche differences typically, although not universally, increases the “relative yield total,” a measure of diversity's effect on the biomass of competitors. In addition, however, we show that promoting coexistence by decreasing relative fitness differences also increases the relative yield total. Thus, two fundamentally different mechanisms of species coexistence both strengthen the influence of diversity on biomass yield. The model and our analysis also yield insight on the interpretation of experimental diversity manipulations. Specifically, the frequently reported “complementarity effect” appears to give a largely skewed estimate of resource partitioning. Likewise, the “selection effect” does not seem to isolate biomass changes attributable to species composition rather than species richness, as is commonly presumed. We conclude that past inferences about the cause of observed diversity-function relationships may be unreliable, and that new empirical estimates of niche and relative fitness differences are necessary to uncover the ecological mechanisms responsible for diversity-function relationships.},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Narwani2013,
author = {Narwani, Anita and Alexandrou, Markos A. and Oakley, Todd H. and Carroll, Ian T. and Cardinale, Bradley J.},
title = {Experimental evidence that evolutionary relatedness does not affect the ecological mechanisms of coexistence in freshwater green algae},
journal = {Ecology Letters},
volume = {16},
number = {11},
pages = {1373-1381},
keywords = {biodiversity, coexistence, community phylogenetics, competition, evolutionary ecology, niche differences, phytoplankton, relative fitness differences},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12182},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ele.12182},
eprint = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ele.12182},
abstract = {Abstract The coexistence of competing species depends on the balance between their fitness differences, which determine their competitive inequalities, and their niche differences, which stabilise their competitive interactions. Darwin proposed that evolution causes species' niches to diverge, but the influence of evolution on relative fitness differences, and the importance of both niche and fitness differences in determining coexistence have not yet been studied together. We tested whether the phylogenetic distances between species of green freshwater algae determined their abilities to coexist in a microcosm experiment. We found that niche differences were more important in explaining coexistence than relative fitness differences, and that phylogenetic distance had no effect on either coexistence or on the sizes of niche and fitness differences. These results were corroborated by an analysis of the frequency of the co-occurrence of 325 pairwise combinations of algal taxa in > 1100 lakes across North America. Phylogenetic distance may not explain the coexistence of freshwater green algae.},
year = {2013}
}
@article{gelman2007,
  title={2. Average predictive comparisons for models with nonlinearity, interactions, and variance components},
  author={Gelman, Andrew and Pardoe, Iain},
  journal={Sociological Methodology},
  volume={37},
  number={1},
  pages={23--51},
  year={2007},
  publisher={SAGE Publications Sage CA: Los Angeles, CA}
}
@article{von1957quantitative,
  title={Quantitative laws in metabolism and growth},
  author={Von Bertalanffy, Ludwig},
  journal={The quarterly review of biology},
  volume={32},
  number={3},
  pages={217--231},
  year={1957},
  publisher={American Institute of Biological Sciences}
}
@article{Easterling2000,
author = {Easterling, Michael R. and Ellner, Stephen P. and Dixon, Philip M.},
doi = {10.1890/0012-9658(2000)081[0694:SSSAAN]2.0.CO;2},
issn = {1939-9170},
journal = {Ecology},
keywords = {Aconitum noveboracense,continuous population structure,elasticity,integral projection model,matrix population models without the matrix,population growth rate,sensitivity analysis,size,specific sensitivity and elasticity,structured population model},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {694--708},
publisher = {Ecological Society of America},
title = {{Size-specific sensitivity: applying a new structured population model}},
url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/0012-9658(2000)081[0694:SSSAAN]2.0.CO;2/full/{\#}.Wm-irdvuRHc.mendeley},
volume = {81},
year = {2000}
}
@book{Ellner2016,
author = {Ellner, Stephen P and Childs, Dylan Z and Rees, Mark},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Data-driven modelling of structured populations}},
year = {2016}
}
@article{zuidema2010integral,
  title={Integral projection models for trees: a new parameterization method and a validation of model output},
  author={Zuidema, Pieter A and Jongejans, Eelke and Chien, Pham D and During, Heinjo J and Schieving, Feike},
  journal={Journal of Ecology},
  volume={98},
  number={2},
  pages={345--355},
  year={2010},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@article{Schurr2012,
abstract = {Range dynamics causes mismatches between a species' geographical distribution and the set of suitable environments in which population growth is positive (the Hutchinsonian niche). This is because source-sink population dynamics cause species to occupy unsuitable environments, and because environmental change creates non-equilibrium situations in which species may be absent from suitable environments (due to migration limitation) or present in unsuitable environments that were previously suitable (due to time-delayed extinction). Because correlative species distribution models do not account for these processes, they are likely to produce biased niche estimates and biased forecasts of future range dynamics. Recently developed dynamic range models (DRMs) overcome this problem: they statistically estimate both range dynamics and the underlying environmental response of demographic rates from species distribution data. This process-based statistical approach qualitatively advances biogeographical analyses. Yet, the application of DRMs to a broad range of species and study systems requires substantial research efforts in statistical modelling, empirical data collection and ecological theory. Here we review current and potential contributions of these fields to a demographic understanding of niches and range dynamics. Our review serves to formulate a demographic research agenda that entails: (1) advances in incorporating process-based models of demographic responses and range dynamics into a statistical framework, (2) systematic collection of data on temporal changes in distribution and abundance and on the response of demographic rates to environmental variation, and (3) improved theoretical understanding of the scaling of demographic rates and the dynamics of spatially coupled populations. This demographic research agenda is challenging but necessary for improved comprehension and quantification of niches and range dynamics. It also forms the basis for understanding how niches and range dynamics are shaped by evolutionary dynamics and biotic interactions. Ultimately, the demographic research agenda should lead to deeper integration of biogeography with empirical and theoretical ecology.},
author = {Schurr, Frank M. and Pagel, J{\"{o}}rn and Cabral, Juliano Sarmento and Groeneveld, J{\"{u}}rgen and Bykova, Olga and O'Hara, Robert B. and Hartig, Florian and Kissling, W. Daniel and Linder, H. Peter and Midgley, Guy F. and Schr{\"{o}}der, Boris and Singer, Alexander and Zimmermann, Niklaus E. and Hara, Robert B O and Hartig, Florian and Kissling, W. Daniel and Linder, H. Peter and Midgley, Guy F. and Frankfurt, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-university and Main, Frankfurt},
doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2699.2012.02737.x},
isbn = {1365-2699},
issn = {03050270},
journal = {Journal of Biogeography},
keywords = {Biodiversity monitoring,Climate change,Ecological forecasts,Ecological niche modelling,Ecological theory,Geographical range shifts,Global environmental change,Mechanistic models,Migration,Process-based statistics},
number = {12},
pages = {2146--2162},
title = {{How to understand species' niches and range dynamics: A demographic research agenda for biogeography}},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Sittaro2017,
abstract = {Rising global temperatures are suggested to be drivers of shifts in tree species ranges. The resulting changes in community composition may negatively impact forest ecosystem function. However, long-term shifts in tree species ranges remain poorly documented. We test for shifts in the northern range limits of 16 temperate tree species in Quebec, Canada, using forest inventory data spanning three decades, 15° of longitude and 7° of latitude. Range shifts were correlated with climate warming and dispersal traits to understand potential mechanisms underlying changes. Shifts were calculated as the change in the 95th percentile of latitudinal occurrence between two inventory periods (1970-1978, 2000-2012) and for two life stages: saplings and adults. We also examined sapling and adult range offsets within each inventory, and changes in the offset through time. Tree species ranges shifted predominantly northward, although species responses varied. As expected shifts were greater for tree saplings, 0.34 km yr−1, than for adults, 0.13 km yr−1. Range limits were generally further north for adults compared to saplings, but the difference diminished through time, consistent with patterns observed for range shifts within each life stage. This suggests caution should be exercised when interpreting geographic range offsets between life stages as evidence of range shifts in the absence of temporal data. Species latitudinal velocities were on average {\textless}50{\%} of the velocity required to equal the spatial velocity of climate change and were mostly unrelated to dispersal traits. Finally, our results add to the body of evidence suggesting tree species are mostly limited in their capacity to track climate warming, supporting concerns that warming will negatively impact the functioning of forest ecosystems. Rising global temperatures are suggested to be drivers of shifts in tree species ranges, but long-term shifts in tree species ranges remain poorly documented. We test for shifts in the northern range limits of 16 temperate tree species in Quebec, Canada, using forest inventory data spanning three decades, 15° of longitude and 7° of latitude. Tree species ranges shifted predominantly northward; however, species latitudinal velocities were on average {\textless}50{\%} of the velocity required to equal the spatial velocity of climate change. Our results add to the body of evidence suggesting limited capacity of tree species to track climate warming, supporting concerns that warming will negatively impact the functioning of forest ecosystems.},
author = {Sittaro, Fabian and Paquette, Alain and Messier, Christian and Nock, Charles A.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13622},
file = {:Users/wvieira/Documents/Mendeley Desktop/Sittaro et al. - 2017 - Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits.pdf:pdf},
issn = {13652486},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {Climate change,Eastern North America,Forest inventory plots,Global warming,Range shifts,Speed was {\textless} 50{\%} of needed to follow climate shift,Temperate and boreal forests,Tree migration},
mendeley-tags = {Speed was {\textless} 50{\%} of needed to follow climate shift},
pages = {1--10},
title = {{Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits}},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{Hutchinson1957,
author = {Hutchinson, G Evelyn},
booktitle = {Cold spring harbor symposium on quantitative biology},
pages = {415--427},
title = {{Concluding remarks}},
volume = {22},
year = {1957}
}
@article{schultz2022,
title={Climate-driven, but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species' distributions},
author={Schultz, Emily L and H{\"u}lsmann, Lisa and Pillet, Michiel D and Hartig, Florian and Breshears, David D and Record, Sydne and Shaw, John D and DeRose, R Justin and Zuidema, Pieter A and Evans, Margaret EK},
journal={Ecology letters},
volume={25},
number={1},
pages={38--51},
year={2022},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@article{bohner2020,
title={Extensive mismatches between species distributions and performance and their relationship to functional traits},
author={Bohner, Teresa and Diez, Jeffrey},
journal={Ecology Letters},
volume={23},
number={1},
pages={33--44},
year={2020},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@article{Guyennon2023,
author = {Guyennon, Arnaud and Reineking, Björn and Salguero-Gomez, Roberto and Dahlgren, Jonas and Lehtonen, Aleksi and Ratcliffe, Sophia and Ruiz-Benito, Paloma and Zavala, Miguel A. and Kunstler, Georges},
title = {Beyond mean fitness: Demographic stochasticity and resilience matter at tree species climatic edges},
journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
volume = {32},
number = {4},
pages = {573-585},
keywords = {European tree species, integral projection model, population dynamics, recovery, species range, stochasticity},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13640},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/geb.13640},
eprint = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/geb.13640},
abstract = {Abstract Aim Linking local population dynamics and species distributions is crucial to predicting the impacts of climate change. Although many studies focus on the mean fitness of populations, theory shows that species distributions can be shaped by demographic stochasticity or population resilience. Here, we examine how mean fitness (measured by invasion rate), demographic stochasticity and resilience (measured by the ability to recover from disturbance) constrain populations at the edges compared with the climatic centre. Location Europe: Spain, France, Germany, Finland and Sweden. Period Forest inventory data used for fitting the models cover the period from 1985 to 2013. Major taxa Dominant European tree species; angiosperms and gymnosperms. Methods We developed dynamic population models covering the entire life cycle of 25 European tree species with climatically dependent recruitment models fitted to forest inventory data. We then ran simulations using integral projection and individual-based models to test how invasion rates, risk of stochastic extinction and ability to recover from stochastic disturbances differ between the centre and edges of the climatic niches of species. Results Results varied among species, but in general, demographic constraints were stronger at warm edges and for species in harsher climates. Conversely, recovery was more limiting at cold edges. In addition, we found that for several species, constraints at the edges were attributable to demographic stochasticity and capacity for recovery rather than mean fitness. Main conclusions Our results highlight that mean fitness is not the only mechanism at play at the edges; demographic stochasticity and population capacity to recover also matter for European tree species. To understand how climate change will drive species range shifts, future studies will need to analyse the interplay between population mean growth rate and stochastic demographic processes in addition to disturbances.},
year = {2023}
}
@article{holt2009,
title={Bringing the Hutchinsonian niche into the 21st century: ecological and evolutionary perspectives},
author={Holt, Robert D},
journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
volume={106},
number={supplement\_2},
pages={19659--19665},
year={2009},
publisher={National Acad Sciences}
}
@article{lesquin2021,
author = {Le Squin, Amaël and Boulangeat, Isabelle and Gravel, Dominique},
title = {Climate-induced variation in the demography of 14 tree species is not sufficient to explain their distribution in eastern North America},
journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
volume = {30},
number = {2},
pages = {352-369},
keywords = {climate, competition, demography, niche theory, population growth rate, range shift, species distribution, structured-population model, scaling up},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13209},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/geb.13209},
eprint = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/geb.13209},
abstract = {Abstract Aim Dynamic range models are proposed to investigate species distributions and to project range shifts under climate change. They are based upon the Hutchinsonian niche theory, specifying that the occurrence of a species in an environmental space should be limited to positions where the intrinsic growth rate is positive. Evaluating population growth rate is, however, difficult for physiologically structured populations, such as forest stands, owing to size-induced individual variation in performance. Therefore, we still have a limited understanding of which aspect of tree demography contributes the most to their geographical range limit. We develop an index of demographic performance for size-structured populations and study its variation across a climatic gradient. We then investigate the relationship between the demographic performance index and species distribution. Location North America (57-124° W, 26-52° N). Time period 1963-2010. Major taxa studied Fourteen tree species. Methods We represent forest dynamics with a size-structured population model and neighbourhood competition with the perfect plasticity approximation. We then derive the lifetime reproduction per individual, , in the absence of density dependence. Using forest inventory data, we assess how tree demography for each species varies with climate. We test the model by comparing and the probability of occurrence within species ranges. Results We find that both growth and mortality rates vary across species distributions, but climate explains little of the observed variation. Individual size and neighbourhood competition are the primary explanatory variables of tree demography. Finally, we find that relates weakly to the probability of occurrence, with no systematic decline in population growth rates towards the range limits. Main conclusions Spatial and size-induced variation in tree growth and mortality do not explain range limits and are insufficient to enable an understanding of tree dynamics. We propose that phenomena perceived mostly at the metapopulation scale should also be considered.},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Csergo2017,
author = {Csergő, Anna M. and Salguero-Gómez, Roberto and Broennimann, Olivier and Coutts, Shaun R. and Guisan, Antoine and Angert, Amy L. and Welk, Erik and Stott, Iain and Enquist, Brian J. and McGill, Brian and Svenning, Jens-Christian and Violle, Cyrille and Buckley, Yvonne M.},
title = {Less favourable climates constrain demographic strategies in plants},
journal = {Ecology Letters},
volume = {20},
number = {8},
pages = {969-980},
keywords = {Climate change, COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database, demographic compensation, ecological niche models, matrix population models, population dynamics, spatial demography, species distribution models, species interactions-abiotic stress hypothesis, stress gradient hypothesis},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12794},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ele.12794},
eprint = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ele.12794},
abstract = {Abstract Correlative species distribution models are based on the observed relationship between species' occurrence and macroclimate or other environmental variables. In climates predicted less favourable populations are expected to decline, and in favourable climates they are expected to persist. However, little comparative empirical support exists for a relationship between predicted climate suitability and population performance. We found that the performance of 93 populations of 34 plant species worldwide - as measured by in situ population growth rate, its temporal variation and extinction risk - was not correlated with climate suitability. However, correlations of demographic processes underpinning population performance with climate suitability indicated both resistance and vulnerability pathways of population responses to climate: in less suitable climates, plants experienced greater retrogression (resistance pathway) and greater variability in some demographic rates (vulnerability pathway). While a range of demographic strategies occur within species' climatic niches, demographic strategies are more constrained in climates predicted to be less suitable.},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Godsoe2017,
abstract = {There is no consensus on when biotic interactions impact the range limits of species. Starting from MacArthur's use of invasibility to understand how biotic interactions influence coexistence, here we examine how biotic interactions shape species distributions. Range limits emerge from how birth, death, and movement rates vary with the environment. We clarify some basic issues revolving around niche definitions, illustrated with simple resource-consumer theory. We then highlight two different avenues for linking community theory and range theory; the first based on calculating the effects of biotic interactions on range limits across scales and landscape configurations, and the second based on aggregate measures of diffuse interactions and network strength. We conclude with suggestions for a future research agenda.},
author = {Godsoe, William and Jankowski, Jill and Holt, Robert D and Gravel, Dominique},
doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2017.03.008},
file = {:Users/wvieira/Documents/Mendeley Desktop/Godsoe et al. - 2017 - Integrating Biogeography with Contemporary Niche Theory.pdf:pdf},
issn = {01695347},
journal = {Trends in Ecology and Evolution},
keywords = {biotic interactions,coexistence theory,fundamental niche,invasion criteria,range limits,realized niche,species' distributions},
number = {7},
pages = {488--499},
pmid = {28477957},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Integrating Biogeography with Contemporary Niche Theory}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2017.03.008},
volume = {32},
year = {2017}
}
@article{kohyama1992,
title={Size-structured multi-species model of rain forest trees},
author={Kohyama, Takashi},
journal={Functional Ecology},
pages={206--212},
year={1992},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{Holt2005,
abstract = {The range of potential mechanisms limiting species' distributions in space is nearly as varied and complex as the diversity of life itself. Yet viewed abstractly, a species' border is a geographic manifestation of a species' demographic responses to a spatially and temporally varying world. Population dynamic models provide insight into the different routes by which range limits can arise owing to gradients in demographic rates. In a metapopulation context, for example, range limits may be caused by gradients in extinction rates, colonization rates or habitat availability. We have consider invasion models in uniform and heterogeneous environments as a framework for understanding non-equilibrium range limits, and explore conditions under which invasions may cease to spread leaving behind a stationary range limit. We conclude that non-equilibrial range dynamics need further theoretical and empirical attention.},
author = {Holt, Robert D and Keitt, Timothy H and Lewis, Mark a and Maurer, Brian a and Taper, Mark L},
doi = {10.1111/j.0030-1299.2005.13147.x},
file = {:Users/wvieira/Documents/Mendeley Desktop/Holt et al. - 2005 - Theoretical models of species' borders single species approaches.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0030-1299},
issn = {00301299},
journal = {Oikos},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {18--27},
pmid = {22174245},
title = {{Theoretical models of species' borders: single species approaches}},
url = {http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.0030-1299.2005.13147.x http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.0030-1299.2005.13147.x},
volume = {108},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Canham2010,
author = {Canham, Charles D. and Thomas, R. Quinn},
title = {Frequency, not relative abundance, of temperate tree species varies along climate gradients in eastern North America},
journal = {Ecology},
volume = {91},
number = {12},
pages = {3433-3440},
keywords = {biogeography of temperate trees, climate niche breadth, climatic range limits, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA), northeastern United States, realized niches of temperate trees, relative abundance vs. local frequency},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1890/10-0312.1},
url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1890/10-0312.1},
eprint = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1890/10-0312.1},
abstract = {There have been many attempts to model the impacts of climate change on the distributions of temperate tree species, but empirical analyses of the effects of climate on the distribution and abundance of tree species have lagged far behind the models. Here, we used forest inventory data to characterize variation in adult tree abundance along climate gradients for the 24 most common tree species in the northeastern United States. The two components of our measure of species abundance—local frequency vs. relative abundance—showed dramatically different patterns of variation along gradients of mean annual temperature and precipitation. Local frequency (i.e., the percentage of plots in a given climate in which a species occurred) varied strongly for all 24 species, particularly as a function of temperature. Relative abundance when present in a plot, on the other hand, was effectively constant for most species right up to their estimated climatic range limits. Although the range limits for both temperature and precipitation were quite broad for all of the species, the range of climates within which a species was common (i.e., high frequency) was much narrower. Because frequency in sites within a given climate shows a strong sensitivity to temperature, at least, this suggests that the processes determining canopy tree recruitment on new sites also vary strongly with climate.},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Kunstler2021,
abstract = {Species range limits are thought to result from a decline in demographic performance at range edges. However, recent studies reporting contradictory patterns in species demographic performance at their edges cast doubt on our ability to predict climate change demographic impacts. To understand these inconsistent demographic responses, we need to shift the focus from geographic to climatic edges and analyse how species responses vary with climatic constraints at the edge and species' ecological strategy. Here we parameterised integral projection models with climate and competition effects for 27 tree species using forest inventory data from over 90,000 plots across Europe. Our models estimate size-dependent climatic responses and evaluate their effects on two life trajectory metrics: life span and passage time—the time to grow to a large size. Then we predicted growth, survival, life span and passage time at the hot and dry or cold and wet edges and compared them to their values at the species climatic centre to derive indices of demographic response at the edge. Using these indices, we investigated whether differences in species demographic response between hot and cold edges could be explained by their position along the climate gradient and functional traits related to their climate stress tolerance. We found that at cold and wet edges of European tree species, growth and passage time were constrained, whereas at their hot and dry edges, survival and life span were constrained. Demographic constraints at the edge were stronger for species occurring in extreme conditions, that is, in hot edges of hot-distributed species and cold edges of cold-distributed species. Species leaf nitrogen content was strongly linked to their demographic responses at the edge. In contrast, we found only weak links with wood density, leaf size and xylem vulnerability to embolism. Synthesis. Our study presents a more complicated picture than previously thought with demographic responses that differ between hot and cold edges. Predictions of climate change impacts should be refined to include edge and species characteristics.},
author = {Kunstler, Georges and Guyennon, Arnaud and Ratcliffe, Sophia and R{\"{u}}ger, Nadja and Ruiz-Benito, Paloma and Childs, Dylan Z. and Dahlgren, Jonas and Lehtonen, Aleksi and Thuiller, Wilfried and Wirth, Christian and Zavala, Miguel A. and Salguero-Gomez, Roberto},
doi = {10.1111/1365-2745.13533},
issn = {13652745},
journal = {Journal of Ecology},
keywords = {IPM,climatic range edge,demography,passage time,vital rate},
number = {2},
pages = {1041--1054},
title = {{Demographic performance of European tree species at their hot and cold climatic edges}},
volume = {109},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Paquette2021,
author = {Paquette, Alexandra and Hargreaves, Anna L.},
title = {Biotic interactions are more often important at species' warm versus cool range edges},
journal = {Ecology Letters},
volume = {24},
number = {11},
pages = {2427-2438},
keywords = {competition, latitudinal gradients, literature review, pathogens, predation, range limits, species distributions, species interactions, temperature},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13864},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ele.13864},
eprint = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ele.13864},
abstract = {Abstract Predicting which ecological factors constrain species distributions is a fundamental ecological question and critical to forecasting geographic responses to global change. Darwin hypothesised that abiotic factors generally impose species' high-latitude and high-elevation (typically cool) range limits, whereas biotic interactions more often impose species' low-latitude/low-elevation (typically warm) limits, but empirical support has been mixed. Here, we clarify three predictions arising from Darwin's hypothesis and show that previously mixed support is partially due to researchers testing different predictions. Using a comprehensive literature review (885 range limits), we find that biotic interactions, including competition, predation and parasitism, contributed to >60\% of range limits and influenced species' warm limits more often than cool limits. Abiotic factors contributed more often than biotic interactions to cool range limits, but temperature contributed frequently to both cool and warm limits. Our results suggest that most range limits will be sensitive to climate warming, but warm-limit responses in particular will depend strongly on biotic interactions.},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Zhang2015,
  title={Half-century evidence from western Canada shows forest dynamics are primarily driven by competition followed by climate},
  author={Zhang, Jian and Huang, Shongming and He, Fangliang},
  journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume={112},
  number={13},
  pages={4009--4014},
  year={2015},
  publisher={National Acad Sciences}
}
@article{Briscoe2019,
author = {Briscoe, Natalie J. and Elith, Jane and Salguero-Gómez, Roberto and Lahoz-Monfort, José J. and Camac, James S. and Giljohann, Katherine M. and Holden, Matthew H. and Hradsky, Bronwyn A. and Kearney, Michael R. and McMahon, Sean M. and Phillips, Ben L. and Regan, Tracey J. and Rhodes, Jonathan R. and Vesk, Peter A. and Wintle, Brendan A. and Yen, Jian D.L. and Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta},
title = {Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications},
journal = {Ecology Letters},
volume = {22},
number = {11},
pages = {1940-1956},
keywords = {Demography, mechanistic, population dynamics, process-based models, species distribution model},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13348},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ele.13348},
eprint = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ele.13348},
abstract = {Abstract Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. Many process-explicit approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems and inform management decisions. Here, we review a range of process-explicit models to determine their strengths and limitations, as well as their current use. Focusing on four common applications of SDMs - regulatory planning, extinction risk, climate refugia and invasive species - we then explore which models best meet management needs. We identify barriers to more widespread and effective use of process-explicit models and outline how these might be overcome. As well as technical and data challenges, there is a pressing need for more thorough evaluation of model predictions to guide investment in method development and ensure the promise of these new approaches is fully realised.},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ettinger2017,
abstract = {Forecasts of widespread range shifts with climate change stem from assumptions that climate drives species' distributions. However, local adaptation and biotic interactions also influence range limits and thus may impact range shifts. Despite the potential importance of these factors, few studies have directly tested their effects on perfor- mance at range limits. We address how population-level variation and biotic interactions may affect range shifts by transplanting seeds and seedlings of western North American conifers of different origin populations into different competitive neighborhoods within and beyond their elevational ranges and monitoring their performance. We find evidence that competition with neighboring trees limits performance within current ranges, but that interactions between adults and juveniles switch from competitive to facilitative at upper range limits. Local adaptation had weaker effects on performance that did not predictably vary with range position or seed origin. Our findings suggest that competitive interactions may slow species turnover within forests at lower range limits, whereas facilitative interactions may accelerate the pace of tree expansions upward near timberline.},
author = {Ettinger, Ailene and HilleRisLambers, Janneke},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13649},
file = {:Users/wvieira/Documents/Mendeley Desktop/Ettinger, HilleRisLambers - 2017 - Competition and facilitation may lead to asymmetric range shift dynamics with climate change.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {4955139574},
issn = {13652486},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {Abies amabilis,Mount Rainier,Pacific Northwest,Tsuga heterophylla,Tsuga mertensiana,anthropogenic global warming,biotic interactions,range limits},
number = {9},
pages = {3921--3933},
pmid = {27935037},
title = {{Competition and facilitation may lead to asymmetric range shift dynamics with climate change}},
volume = {23},
year = {2017}
}
@article{seidl2011,
title={Unraveling the drivers of intensifying forest disturbance regimes in Europe},
author={Seidl, Rupert and Schelhaas, Mart-Jan and Lexer, Manfred J},
journal={Global Change Biology},
volume={17},
number={9},
pages={2842--2852},
year={2011},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@article{Ibanez2018,
author = {Ib{\'{a}}{\~{n}}ez, In{\'{e}}s and Zak, Donald R. and Burton, Andrew J. and Pregitzer, Kurt S.},
doi = {10.1002/ecy.2095},
file = {:Users/wvieira/Documents/Mendeley Desktop/Ib{\'{a}}{\~{n}}ez et al. - 2018 - Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition ameliorates the decline in tree growth caused by a drier climate.pdf:pdf},
issn = {00129658},
journal = {Ecology},
keywords = {Acer saccharum,diameter growth,drought,fertilization effect,global warming,lag effects,northern hardwood forest,physiological response,sugar maple},
month = {jan},
title = {{Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition ameliorates the decline in tree growth caused by a drier climate}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/ecy.2095},
year = {2018}
}@article{maguire1973niche,
  title={Niche response structure and the analytical potentials of its relationship to the habitat},
  author={Maguire Jr, Bassett},
  journal={The American Naturalist},
  volume={107},
  number={954},
  pages={213--246},
  year={1973},
  publisher={University of Chicago Press}
}
@article{maguire1973niche,
  title={Niche response structure and the analytical potentials of its relationship to the habitat},
  author={Maguire Jr, Bassett},
  journal={The American Naturalist},
  volume={107},
  number={954},
  pages={213--246},
  year={1973},
  publisher={University of Chicago Press}
}
@article{Tredennick2021,
author = {Tredennick, Andrew T. and Hooker, Giles and Ellner, Stephen P. and Adler, Peter B.},
title = {A practical guide to selecting models for exploration, inference, and prediction in ecology},
journal = {Ecology},
volume = {102},
number = {6},
pages = {e03336},
keywords = {model selection, prediction, validation, variable selection},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.3336},
url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ecy.3336},
eprint = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecy.3336},
abstract = {Abstract Selecting among competing statistical models is a core challenge in science. However, the many possible approaches and techniques for model selection, and the conflicting recommendations for their use, can be confusing. We contend that much confusion surrounding statistical model selection results from failing to first clearly specify the purpose of the analysis. We argue that there are three distinct goals for statistical modeling in ecology: data exploration, inference, and prediction. Once the modeling goal is clearly articulated, an appropriate model selection procedure is easier to identify. We review model selection approaches and highlight their strengths and weaknesses relative to each of the three modeling goals. We then present examples of modeling for exploration, inference, and prediction using a time series of butterfly population counts. These show how a model selection approach flows naturally from the modeling goal, leading to different models selected for different purposes, even with exactly the same data set. This review illustrates best practices for ecologists and should serve as a reminder that statistical recipes cannot substitute for critical thinking or for the use of independent data to test hypotheses and validate predictions.},
year = {2021}
}
@misc{stan2022stan,
  title={Stan modeling language users guide and reference manual, version 2.30.1},
  author={Stan Development Team and others},
  year={2022},
  publisher={Stan Development Team}
}
@Manual{cmdstanr,
  title = {cmdstanr: R Interface to 'CmdStan'},
  author = {Jonah Gabry and Rok Češnovar and Andrew Johnson},
  year = {2023},
  note = {https://mc-stan.org/cmdstanr/, https://discourse.mc-stan.org},
}
@article{vehtari2017practical,
  title={Practical Bayesian model evaluation using leave-one-out cross-validation and WAIC},
  author={Vehtari, Aki and Gelman, Andrew and Gabry, Jonah},
  journal={Statistics and computing},
  volume={27},
  pages={1413--1432},
  year={2017},
  publisher={Springer}
}
@article{mckenney2011,
  title={Customized spatial climate models for North America},
  author={McKenney, Daniel W and Hutchinson, Michael F and Papadopol, Pia and Lawrence, Kevin and Pedlar, John and Campbell, Kathy and Milewska, Ewa and Hopkinson, Ron F and Price, David and Owen, Tim},
  journal={Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
  volume={92},
  number={12},
  pages={1611--1622},
  year={2011},
  publisher={American Meteorological Society}
}
@article{Thuiller2014,
author = {Thuiller, Wilfried and Münkemüller, Tamara and Schiffers, Katja H. and Georges, Damien and Dullinger, Stefan and Eckhart, Vincent M. and Edwards Jr, Thomas C. and Gravel, Dominique and Kunstler, Georges and Merow, Cory and Moore, Kara and Piedallu, Christian and Vissault, Steve and Zimmermann, Niklaus E. and Zurell, Damaris and Schurr, Frank M.},
title = {Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?},
journal = {Ecography},
volume = {37},
number = {12},
pages = {1155-1166},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.00836},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ecog.00836},
eprint = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ecog.00836},
abstract = {Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density (N ) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, western USA, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence probability are those with high densities but slow intrinsic population growth rates. The uncertain relationships between demography and occurrence probability suggests caution when linking species distribution and demographic models.},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Midolo2021,
author = {Midolo, Gabriele and Wellstein, Camilla and Faurby, Søren},
title = {Individual fitness is decoupled from coarse-scale probability of occurrence in North American trees},
journal = {Ecography},
volume = {44},
number = {5},
pages = {789-801},
keywords = {centre-periphery, ecological niche model, individual performance, intraspecific variability, meta-analysis, transplant experiment},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05446},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ecog.05446},
eprint = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ecog.05446},
abstract = {Habitat suitability estimated with probability of occurrence in species distribution models (SDMs) is used in conservation to identify geographic areas that are most likely to harbor individuals of interest. In theory, probability of occurrence is coupled with individual fitness so that individuals have higher fitness at the centre of their species environmental niche than at the edges, which we here define as 'fitness-centre' hypothesis. However, such relationship is uncertain and has been rarely tested across multiple species. Here, we quantified the relationship between coarse-scale probability of occurrence projected with SDMs and individual fitness in 66 tree species native of North America. We used 1) field data of individuals' growth rate (height and diameter standardized by age) available from the United States Forest Inventory Analysis plots; and 2) common garden data collected from 23 studies reporting individual growth rate, survival, height and diameter of individuals originated from different provenances in United States and Canada. We show 'fitness-centre' relationships are rare, with only 12\% and 11\% of cases showing a significant positive correlation for field and common garden data, respectively. Furthermore, we found the 'fitness-centre' relationship is not affected by the precision of the SDMs and it does not depend upon dispersal ability and climatic breath of the species. Thus, although the 'fitness-centre' relationship is supported by theory, it does not hold true in nearly any species. Because individual fitness plays a relevant role in buffering local extinction and range contraction following climatic changes and biotic invasions, our results encourage conservationists not to assume the 'fitness-centre' relationship when modelling species distribution.},
year = {2021}
}
@book{hanski1999,
  title={Metapopulation ecology},
  author={Hanski, Ilkka},
  year={1999},
  publisher={Oxford University Press}
}
@article{Lewis1942,
  title={On the generation and growth of a population},
  author={Lewis, EG},
  journal={Sankhyã},
  pages={93-96},
  volume={6},
  year={1942}
}
@article{leslie1945,
  title={On the use of matrices in certain population mathematics},
  author={Leslie, Patrick H},
  journal={Sankhyt},
  volume={33},
  number={3},
  pages={183-212},
  year={1945},
  publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{van2020,
  title={Variance as a life history outcome: Sensitivity analysis of the contributions of stochasticity and heterogeneity},
  author={van Daalen, Silke and Caswell, Hal},
  journal={Ecological Modelling},
  volume={417},
  issue={108856},
  year={2020},
  publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{milles2023,
  title={Local buffer mechanisms for population persistence},
  author={Milles, Alexander and Banitz, Thomas and Bielcik, Milos and Frank, Karin and Gallagher, Cara A and Jeltsch, Florian and Jepsen, Jane Uhd and Oro, Daniel and Radchuk, Viktoriia and Grimm, Volker},
  journal={Trends in Ecology \& Evolution},
  publisher={Elsevier},
  volume={38},
  issue={13},
  pages={1051-1059},
  year={2023}
}
@article{Koons2009,
author = {Koons, David N. and Pavard, Samuel and Baudisch, Annette and Jessica E. Metcalf, C.},
title = {Is life-history buffering or lability adaptive in stochastic environments?},
journal = {Oikos},
volume = {118},
number = {7},
pages = {972-980},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.16399.x},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.16399.x},
eprint = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.16399.x},
abstract = {It is commonly thought that temporal fluctuations in demographic parameters should be selected against because of the deleterious impacts variation can have on fitness. A critical underpinning of this prediction is the assumption that changes in environmental conditions map linearly into changes in demographic parameters over time. We detail why this assumption may often break down and why selection should not always favor buffering of demographic parameters against environmental stochasticity. To the contrary, nonlinear relationships between the environment and demographic performance can produce asymmetric temporal variation in demographic parameters that actually enhances fitness. We extend this result to structured populations using simulation and show that 'demographic lability' rather than 'buffering' may be adaptive, particularly in organisms with low juvenile or adult survival. Finally, we review previous ecological work, and indicate cases where 'demographic lability' may be adaptive, then conclude by identifying research that is needed to develop a theory of life-history evolution that encompasses both demographic buffering and lability.},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Caswell2009,
author = {Caswell, Hal},
title = {Stage, age and individual stochasticity in demography},
journal = {Oikos},
volume = {118},
number = {12},
pages = {1763-1782},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.17620.x},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.17620.x},
eprint = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.17620.x},
abstract = {Demography is the study of the population consequences of the fates of individuals. Individuals are differentiated on the basis of age or, in general, life cycle stages. The movement of an individual through its life cycle is a random process, and although the eventual destination (death) is certain, the pathways taken to that destination are stochastic and will differ even between identical individuals; this is individual stochasticity. A stage-classified demographic model contains implicit age-specific information, which can be analyzed using Markov chain methods. The living stages in the life cycles are transient states in an absorbing Markov chain; death is an absorbing state. This paper presents Markov chain methods for computing the mean and variance of the lifetime number of visits to any transient state, the mean and variance of longevity, the net reproductive rate R0, and the cohort generation time. It presents the matrix calculus methods needed to calculate the sensitivity and elasticity of all these indices to any life history parameters. These sensitivities have many uses, including calculation of selection gradients. It is shown that the use of R0 as a measure of fitness or an invasion exponent gives erroneous results except when R0=λ=1. The Markov chain approach is then generalized to variable environments (deterministic environmental sequences, periodic environments, iid random environments, Markovian environments). Variable environments are analyzed using the vec-permutation method to create a model that classifies individuals jointly by the stage and environmental condition. Throughout, examples are presented using the North Atlantic right whale (Eubaleana glacialis) and an endangered prairie plant (Lomatium bradshawii) in a stochastic fire environment.},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Caswell1978,
  title={A general formula for the sensitivity of population growth rate to changes in life history parameters},
  author={Caswell, Hal},
  journal={Theoretical population biology},
  volume={14},
  number={2},
  pages={215--230},
  year={1978},
  publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{antoniadis2021,
  title={Random forests for global sensitivity analysis: A selective review},
  author={Antoniadis, Anestis and Lambert-Lacroix, Sophie and Poggi, Jean-Michel},
  journal={Reliability Engineering \& System Safety},
  volume={206},
  pages={107312},
  year={2021},
  publisher={Elsevier}
}
@Article{Wright2017,
  title = {{ranger}: A Fast Implementation of Random Forests for High Dimensional Data in {C++} and {R}},
  author = {Marvin N. Wright and Andreas Ziegler},
  journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
  year = {2017},
  volume = {77},
  number = {1},
  pages = {1--17},
  doi = {10.18637/jss.v077.i01},
}
@article{breiman2001,
  title={Random forests},
  author={Breiman, Leo},
  journal={Machine learning},
  volume={45},
  pages={5--32},
  year={2001},
  publisher={Springer}
}
@article{lewontin1969,
  title={On population growth in a randomly varying environment},
  author={Lewontin, Richard C and Cohen, Daniel},
  journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of sciences},
  volume={62},
  number={4},
  pages={1056--1060},
  year={1969},
  publisher={National Acad Sciences}
}
@article{Saltelli2019,
  title={Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: A systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices},
  author={Saltelli, Andrea and Aleksankina, Ksenia and Becker, William and Fennell, Pamela and Ferretti, Federico and Holst, Niels and Li, Sushan and Wu, Qiongli},
  journal={Environmental modelling \& software},
  volume={114},
  pages={29--39},
  year={2019},
  publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{May1978,
  title={Exploiting natural populations in an uncertain world},
  author={May, Robert M and Beddington, JR and Horwood, JW and Shepherd, JG},
  journal={Mathematical Biosciences},
  volume={42},
  number={3-4},
  pages={219--252},
  year={1978},
  publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{Terry2022,
  title={Synthesising the multiple impacts of climatic variability on community responses to climate change},
  author={Terry, J Christopher D and O'Sullivan, Jacob D and Rossberg, Axel G},
  journal={Ecography},
  volume={2022},
  number={5},
  pages={e06123},
  year={2022},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@article{diaz2022,
  title={The global spectrum of plant form and function: enhanced species-level trait dataset},
  author={D{\'\i}az, Sandra and Kattge, Jens and Cornelissen, Johannes HC and Wright, Ian J and Lavorel, Sandra and Dray, St{\'e}phane and Reu, Bj{\"o}rn and Kleyer, Michael and Wirth, Christian and Prentice, I Colin and others},
  journal={Scientific Data},
  volume={9},
  number={1},
  pages={755},
  year={2022},
  publisher={Nature Publishing Group UK London}
}
@article{thomas2004,
  title={Extinction risk from climate change},
  author={Thomas, Chris D and Cameron, Alison and Green, Rhys E and Bakkenes, Michel and Beaumont, Linda J and Collingham, Yvonne C and Erasmus, Barend FN and De Siqueira, Marinez Ferreira and Grainger, Alan and Hannah, Lee and others},
  journal={Nature},
  volume={427},
  number={6970},
  pages={145--148},
  year={2004},
  publisher={Nature Publishing Group}
}
@article{elith2009,
  title={Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time},
  author={Elith, Jane and Leathwick, John R},
  journal={Annual review of ecology, evolution, and systematics},
  volume={40},
  pages={677--697},
  year={2009},
  publisher={Annual Reviews}
}
@article{hulsmann2024,
  title={Latitudinal patterns in stabilizing density dependence of forest communities},
  author={H{\"u}lsmann, Lisa and Chisholm, Ryan A and Comita, Liza and Visser, Marco D and de Souza Leite, Melina and Aguilar, Salomon and Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J and Bourg, Norman A and Brockelman, Warren Y and Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh and others},
  journal={Nature},
  pages={1--8},
  year={2024},
  publisher={Nature Publishing Group UK London}
}