University Project to simulate and analyse COVID-19. This experiment only includes the original COVID-19.
https://niksanjp.github.io/COVID-19-Simulation-Analysis-1.github.io/
Covid-19 or SARS-COV-2 was first detected in Wuhan China, has spread around the world. This virus in its first year has infected over 135 million people and killed almost 3 million people around the globe. It has costs people their livelihood and trillions of dollars in economic damage, it has brought humans to a standstill. After a year and more there has been plenty of data collected regarding covid-19 and its cases around the globe. For this project, it has been concluded to perform simulation and test to their spread for different populations and different countries. We will also discuss their Reproduction Number of how we can expect the infection to increase. There remains mystery on how it spread through the population, but we want to find if measures taken by countries are lower than the Basic Reproduction Number (BRN) of the pathogen. This determines if the trend of infections is on the rise or declining. With the knowledge gained from this data we can assess the strategy and will also be able to predict the number of infections in the future. This will further help governments around the world to decide on policy to curb infection number and effective decision making until the vaccine have arrived. We will also compare the Reproduction number for USA and check effectiveness of the policies. We will compare the reproduction number for USA and the BRN for USA and the covid-19 itself. By this analysis, the governments around the globe would have data and analysis required for their policy modeling to minimize damage to the economy and minimizing the infection numbers.
Our approach is very simple, we want to experiment what type of population/countries are more vulnerable to covid-19. Firstly, we will be experimenting with a simulation for a normal population of 500 people with a default size of land mass. Then we will compare what happens if the virus is introduced to a very dense population with same population and then socially distant population with same population size. We will confirm if our hypothesis is true for countries and regions around the world. For each population we will check their density and covid-19 infections, this will show the correlation between density and spread of the virus. We will further check the correlation with policies and covid-19 cases if we can find a correlation between face-mask policies and reduction of covid-19. We will further study how the covid-19 should be spreading using their Basic Reproduction Number (BRN) using this we can check how well the countries has been controlling the spread. We will take a country and check their basic reproduction number for that country and compare it will the virus’s BRN itself to check the effectiveness of Covid-19