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FIX: edits for LaTeX compatibility (#262)
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* fix align in equation

* fix tag
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mmcky authored Sep 24, 2022
1 parent 48a3e9b commit 18b232c
Showing 1 changed file with 5 additions and 3 deletions.
8 changes: 5 additions & 3 deletions lectures/likelihood_bayes.md
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Expand Up @@ -465,10 +465,12 @@ $$
Notice that
$$
\eqalign{ E(\pi_t | \pi_{t-1}) & = \int \Bigl[ { \pi_{t-1} f(w) \over \pi_{t-1} f(w) + (1-\pi_{t-1})g(w) } \Bigr]
\begin{aligned}
E(\pi_t | \pi_{t-1}) & = \int \Bigl[ { \pi_{t-1} f(w) \over \pi_{t-1} f(w) + (1-\pi_{t-1})g(w) } \Bigr]
\Bigl[ \pi_{t-1} f(w) + (1-\pi_{t-1})g(w) \Bigr] d w \cr
& = \pi_{t-1} \int f(w) dw \cr
& = \pi_{t-1}, \cr}
& = \pi_{t-1}, \cr
\end{aligned}
$$
so that the process $\pi_t$ is a **martingale**.
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Applying the above formula to $\pi_\infty$, we obtain
$$
E_{-1} \pi_\infty(\omega) = \pi_{-1} \tag{20}
E_{-1} \pi_\infty(\omega) = \pi_{-1}
$$
where the mathematical expectation $E_{-1}$ here is taken with respect to the probability
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