This statistical study focuses on vehicle theft in France between 2016 and 2022.
It was conducted using R Studio software and R programming language.
Correlation with several socio-economic variables were tested:
- Number of police officers per 1000 inhabitants, 2019 (source: https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/5763601?sommaire=5763633)
- Mean Revenue of inhabitants, 2019 (source: https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2012748)
- Unemployment Rate, 2016-2022 (source: https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2012804)
In conclusion, it is difficult to assert a clear correlation between the different variables.
On a departmental scale, there is a link between the rate of vehicle theft and average income, the number of police officers per inhabitant and the unemployment rate.
These observations confirmed some of the initial hypotheses. The weak positive correlation between unemployment rate and theft rate can be explained by a higher crime rate in the departments affected by unemployment. In departments where average income is high, we can imagine that opportunities for vehicle theft are more frequent or more attractive, or even that criminals have more means to carry them out.
However, the study also contradicted one of the assumptions. The positive correlation between theft rate and number of police officers was unexpected. This may be explained by the need for a greater concentration of police forces in departments with the highest crime rates.
(vehicle theft source: https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/bases-statistiques-communale-et-departementale-de-la-delinquance-enregistree-par-la-police-et-la-gendarmerie-nationales/)