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ECON 8310 / BSAD 8080 -- Business Forecasting

Days and Times: TBA
Classroom: TBA

The course will cover forecasting tools and applications applied to business settings. We will cover traditional Econometric forecasting methods in the first half of the class. In the second half of the course, we will focus on models in predictive analytics and machine learning, since these models are quickly becoming critical tools for forecasters in many settings. The course will include lecture and lab time, and labs will be focused on teaching students how to implement the models discussed in lectures.

Office Hours

Office hours are not at a specific time. Since most students are working full time while enrolled in this course, I will make time as requested to meet with students, and will make every effort to accomodate your scheduling needs.

Grading

This course will be graded as follows:

  • 500 points of your grade will be based on the assignments that make up lab.
  • 250 points will be based on an in-class, two day midterm project/presentation. More details will be provided in class
  • 250 points will be based on an in-class, two day final project/presentation. More details will be provided in class
Final grades will be based on the total points you earn, and distributed according to the following scale.
Letter Percent
A 940-1000
A- 900-939
B+ 870 - 899
B 840 - 869
B- 800-839
C+ 770-799
C 740-769
C- 700-739
D+ 660-699
D 600-659
F < 600

Projects

The exams in this course will be two projects, for which you will be given two class periods to prepare and present. The best way to learn is to do, and so we will focus on doing forecasting. I don't expect you to know how to code when the semester starts, but the course will be based on writing code, so I do expect you to learn as the course progresses. I will help you do so, and will make the process as painless as possible. The primary goal is to help you do forecasting. Your entire grade is based on coding projects (and presentations of some of the projects) and will depend heavily on teamwork, so please make sure that you schedule time to remain for all of class each week. These projects must be done as part of a group (recommended).

Course Schedule

Week 1 - Regression Review and ARIMA Models

Week 2 - Generalized additive models (GAMs)

Week 3 - Exponential smoothing models

Week 4 - Introduction to neural networks

Week 5 - Recurrent neural networks (RNNs)

Week 6 - LSTMs for Time Series Forecasting

Week 7 & 8 - Midterm Project

Your group from lab will be assigned a problem to solve, that can make use of any of the methods from class. Your goal is to once again create a prototype solution to the problem you are given, and then to present your solution to the class. The first period will be devoted to preparation, and the second period will be focused on team presentations.

Week 9 - Decision Trees

Week 10 - Random Forests

Week 11 - Boosted Tree Models

Week 12 - Bayesian Modeling Part 1

Week 13 - Bayesian Modeling Part 2

Week 14 - Bayesian Modeling Part 3

Weeks 15 & 16 - Final Project

Like the midterm project, your group from lab will be assigned a problem to solve, that can make use of any of the methods from class. Your goal is to once again create a prototype solution to the problem you are given, and then to present your solution to the class. The first period will be devoted to preparation, and the second period will be focused on team presentations.

ACADEMIC INTEGRITY

UNO’s requirements for Academic Integrity and Behavior All students are required to adhere to the highest standards of academic integrity and behavior and must satisfy the UNO Academic Integrity Policy http://www.unomaha.edu/student-life/student-conduct-and-community-standards/policies/academic-integrity.php and Student Code of Conduct http://www.unomaha.edu/student-life/student-conduct-and-community-standards/policies/code-of-conduct.php. It is the student’s responsibility to read, understand and abide by these policies.

If I find that you have plagiarized, been dishonest in completing your assignments, or cheated an an exam or assignment, then I reserve the right to award you no points on the entire exam, project, or assignment and to report the behavior to the university. If this behavior is repeated, I reserve the right to award a failing grade, independent of your score on other assignments. Academic integrity is essential to education, and I take it very seriously.

Using AI models such as ChatGPT to generate or clean or comment code without acknowledging their use is equivalent to plagiarism. These are legitimate tools and may be used, as long as you make it clear when and how they were used. Just remember, they can't replace a working knowledge of programming. If you let them solve all the problems, you have wasted your time. If you fail to cite AI coding models when you are using them (I can usually tell when you do), this is the same as cheating and will result in a failing grade.

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