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@@ -136,7 +136,7 @@
 <p>Some real spy stuff, right?</p><br />
 <p><a href="https://arstechnica.com/security/2024/04/what-we-know-about-the-xz-utils-backdoor-that-almost-infected-the-world/">Arstechnica has a more detailed write up</a>, and Lasse Collin has some stuff
 about it <a href="https://tukaani.org/xz-backdoor/">on their site</a> - but they’re <a href="https://lkml.org/lkml/2024/3/30/188">currently on vacation</a> and won’t be able
-to do much until they get back.</p><br /></section></article><nav><ul class="on-my-mind-thought__ThoughtNavigationUl-sc-5xs9vp-0 gXNoKN"><li><a rel="prev" href="/on-my-mind/2021-10-27/">← <!-- -->2021/10/27</a></li><li></li></ul></nav></main></div></div><div id="gatsby-announcer" style="position:absolute;top:0;width:1px;height:1px;padding:0;overflow:hidden;clip:rect(0, 0, 0, 0);white-space:nowrap;border:0" aria-live="assertive" aria-atomic="true"></div></div><script id="gatsby-script-loader">/*<![CDATA[*/window.pagePath="/on-my-mind/2024-04-02/";/*]]>*/</script><!-- slice-start id="_gatsby-scripts-1" -->
+to do much until they get back.</p><br /></section></article><nav><ul class="on-my-mind-thought__ThoughtNavigationUl-sc-5xs9vp-0 gXNoKN"><li><a rel="prev" href="/on-my-mind/2021-10-27/">← <!-- -->2021/10/27</a></li><li><a rel="next" href="/on-my-mind/2024-10-27/">2024/10/27<!-- --> →</a></li></ul></nav></main></div></div><div id="gatsby-announcer" style="position:absolute;top:0;width:1px;height:1px;padding:0;overflow:hidden;clip:rect(0, 0, 0, 0);white-space:nowrap;border:0" aria-live="assertive" aria-atomic="true"></div></div><script id="gatsby-script-loader">/*<![CDATA[*/window.pagePath="/on-my-mind/2024-04-02/";/*]]>*/</script><!-- slice-start id="_gatsby-scripts-1" -->
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diff --git a/on-my-mind/2024-10-27/index.html b/on-my-mind/2024-10-27/index.html
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+data driven business.  It starts off on a really inspiring
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+</style><link rel="icon" href="/favicon-32x32.png?v=db4de95c6680047f2bb2b3b86380467c" type="image/png"/><link rel="manifest" href="/manifest.webmanifest" crossorigin="anonymous"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="48x48" href="/icons/icon-48x48.png?v=db4de95c6680047f2bb2b3b86380467c"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="72x72" href="/icons/icon-72x72.png?v=db4de95c6680047f2bb2b3b86380467c"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="96x96" href="/icons/icon-96x96.png?v=db4de95c6680047f2bb2b3b86380467c"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="144x144" href="/icons/icon-144x144.png?v=db4de95c6680047f2bb2b3b86380467c"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="192x192" href="/icons/icon-192x192.png?v=db4de95c6680047f2bb2b3b86380467c"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="256x256" href="/icons/icon-256x256.png?v=db4de95c6680047f2bb2b3b86380467c"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="384x384" href="/icons/icon-384x384.png?v=db4de95c6680047f2bb2b3b86380467c"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="512x512" href="/icons/icon-512x512.png?v=db4de95c6680047f2bb2b3b86380467c"/><title data-react-helmet="true">Thoughts on 2024/10/27 | DEFINITIVELY NOT JAMES</title></head><body><div id="___gatsby"><div style="outline:none" tabindex="-1" id="gatsby-focus-wrapper"><div class="layout__LayoutContainer-sc-1i3m2x4-2 jgDFEM"><header class="layout__LayoutHeaderContainer-sc-1i3m2x4-1 SNuPw"><h1 class="layout__LayoutHeaderHeading-sc-1i3m2x4-3 iAwJBM"><a class="layout__LayoutHeaderHeadingLink-sc-1i3m2x4-4 jwQtzW" href="/"><span class="long-word">Definitively</span> Not<span class="layout__MyName-sc-1i3m2x4-5 jBzVkH">( James )</span></a></h1><nav class="layout__LayoutNav-sc-1i3m2x4-6 fYrKDM"><ul class="layout__LayoutNavList-sc-1i3m2x4-7 ggmFLV"><li class="layout__NavigationItem-sc-1i3m2x4-0 fypOJt"><a href="/blog/">Blog</a></li><li class="layout__NavigationItem-sc-1i3m2x4-0 fypOJt"><a href="/resume/">Resume</a></li><li class="layout__NavigationItem-sc-1i3m2x4-0 fypOJt"><a href="/lets-chat/">Let&#x27;s Chat</a></li><li class="layout__NavigationItem-sc-1i3m2x4-0 fypOJt"><a href="/on-my-mind/">On My Mind..</a></li></ul></nav></header><main><article class="thought__ThoughtArticle-sc-en1bdp-0 hIpGbk"><header class="thought__ThoughtHeader-sc-en1bdp-2 eVSxGn"><h1 class="thought__ThoughtDate-sc-en1bdp-1 gLoutk"><a aria-current="page" class="" href="/on-my-mind/2024-10-27/">2024/10/27</a></h1></header><section class="thought__ThoughtBody-sc-en1bdp-3 hLRxDg"><p>
+            <img loading="lazy" src='https://media.giphy.com/media/N2QQfEMAogAEQhJlkw/giphy.gif' alt='' loading='lazy' />
+          </p><br />
+<p>There’s a <a href="https://commoncog.com/becoming-data-driven-in-business/">fantastic set of essays</a> by Cedric Chin about becoming a
+data driven business.  It starts off on a really inspiring
+<a href="https://commoncog.com/goodharts-law-not-useful/">essay dissecting Goodhart’s law</a>.  Most of the essays are focused
+around Amazon and often reference the book that Cedric had helped with:
+<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/53138083">“Working Backwards” by Colin Bryar and Bill Carr</a>.</p><br />
+<p>For those that don’t know it, Goodhart’s law is:</p><br />
+<blockquote>
+<p>When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.</p><br />
+</blockquote>
+<p>Every measure is a proxy for what you actually want — and is always an
+imperfect proxy for it.  Even when you’re using a tape measure you’re not
+quite getting what you want - an exact measurement of a distance.  Instead,
+you’re getting something that’s “close enough” in precision to the real
+deal that it works fine.</p><br />
+<p>In <a href="https://www.holistics.io/blog/four-types-goodharts-law/?ref=commoncog.com">another essay</a>, Cedric summarized a <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.04585?ref=commoncog.com">paper by David Manheim and Scott Garrabrant</a>
+that breaks down Goodhart’s law into four “flavors”: regressive, extremal,
+causal, and adversarial. This is reflected in Donald Wheeler’s take on Goodhart’s
+law from <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/63859">Understanding Variation</a>:</p><br />
+<blockquote>
+<p>When people are pressured to meet a target value there are three ways they can proceed:</p><br />
+<ol>
+<li>They can work to improve the system</li>
+<li>They can distort the system</li>
+<li>Or they can distort the data</li>
+</ol>
+</blockquote>
+<p>To me, this is a fantastic way to frame Goodhart’s law.  Instead of it being a
+problem declared out into the ether it’s something that can be solutioned against.
+The solutions would be to make it more difficult to distort the data or the system -
+or you can make it easier to improve the system.</p><br />
+<p>Wheeler notes that this can be seen between the Voice of the Customer - the
+expectations - and the Voice of the Process - what can be done in the real world.
+Focusing entirely on the Voice of the Customer without understanding the
+Voice of the Process leads to gaming the measurements, inadvertently or not.</p><br />
+<p>The essay series goes into depth on how Amazon has approached this problem - via their
+Weekly Business Review (WBR).  The goal of the WBR is to provide flexibility to make
+the various systems work for them and also to drop measurements that aren’t useful.
+It promotes iteration and learning, synchronizing leadership rather than promoting
+blindly following numbers.</p><br />
+<p>Proxy measures will always allow for some form of gaming the system.  At the same time,
+you can’t run a business without these kinds of proxy measures. Goodhart’s law isn’t wrong -
+but instead of approaching it by choosing to avoid measuring, we instead need
+to find solutions to prevent it.</p><br />
+<p>The problem isn’t having targets - it’s failing to reconcile those
+targets with the real world.</p><br /></section></article><nav><ul class="on-my-mind-thought__ThoughtNavigationUl-sc-5xs9vp-0 gXNoKN"><li><a rel="prev" href="/on-my-mind/2024-04-02/">← <!-- -->2024/04/02</a></li><li></li></ul></nav></main></div></div><div id="gatsby-announcer" style="position:absolute;top:0;width:1px;height:1px;padding:0;overflow:hidden;clip:rect(0, 0, 0, 0);white-space:nowrap;border:0" aria-live="assertive" aria-atomic="true"></div></div><script id="gatsby-script-loader">/*<![CDATA[*/window.pagePath="/on-my-mind/2024-10-27/";/*]]>*/</script><!-- slice-start id="_gatsby-scripts-1" -->
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