COVID-IHME

This repository compiles information related to my project focused on comparing the IHME's COVID-19 predicted death counts in the United States to the actual numbers as they are observed. The predictions in question are at the state-level (including DC) and were obtained from a paper published on medRxiv: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1 The forecasts are for four months from when they were published, and they were published on March 30, so they do not apply until July 30. But we can at least see if the observed number of COVID-19 deaths is on track to reach the projected number in each state on July 30. This can be done by, for instance, extrapolating the average daily increase in deaths based on available data from past dates into the future until July 30.