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Forecasting Triple Exponential Smoothing Alpha-Beta-Gamma Using R Programming

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michstg/Triple-Exponential-Smoothing-RainFall-Rate-R-Programming

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Triple Exponential Smoothing with Optimal Parameter Using R

Dataset = Rainfall rate in South Padang Lawas

Times = 2012 until 2021 (Website BPS)

  • Assumption Hypotesis Test
  • Triple Exponential Smoothing with cross looping with 3 parameters)
  • Cross Parameter Seasonal = 'Additive' and 'Multiplicative'
  • Looping Parameter alpha = 0.01 - 0.9
  • Looping Parameter beta = 0.01 - 0.9
  • Looping Parameter gamma = 0.01 - 0.9

Summary(1) = The appropriate model for the data is the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Additive model.

Summary(2) = Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Additive because it has the smallest MAPE value with

  • α = 0.10,
  • β = 0.10,
  • γ = 0.10,
  • The MAPE = 0.3271700