Dataset = Rainfall rate in South Padang Lawas
Times = 2012 until 2021 (Website BPS)
- Assumption Hypotesis Test
- Triple Exponential Smoothing with cross looping with 3 parameters)
- Cross Parameter Seasonal = 'Additive' and 'Multiplicative'
- Looping Parameter alpha = 0.01 - 0.9
- Looping Parameter beta = 0.01 - 0.9
- Looping Parameter gamma = 0.01 - 0.9
Summary(1) = The appropriate model for the data is the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Additive model.
Summary(2) = Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Additive because it has the smallest MAPE value with
- α = 0.10,
- β = 0.10,
- γ = 0.10,
- The MAPE = 0.3271700