This repository contains the code for the following article: Schmit, Topazian et al. (2024). Modelling resource allocation strategies for insecticide-treated bed nets to achieve malaria eradication (in press at eLife).
This modelling study explores optimal strategies to allocate limited resources to achieve global malaria eradication. Essentially, we attempt to address the following question: should resources initially focus on high burden countries, elimination countries, or a balance between the two?
The mathematical model used here adapts the deterministic, compartmental model of P. falciparum transmission previously fit to age-stratified data across a variety of transmission settings in sub-Saharan Africa (Griffin et al. 2014). We use data from simulations of increasing insecticide-treated net usage in 25 different locations representing the world's range of PfPR2-10 values and corresponding population sizes.
✔️ Create an optimization algorithm to minimize total global cases and total global population at risk of infection, with increasing budget values.
✔️ Compare optimization results with three standard strategies for resource allocation: 1) prioritizing high burden countries ("high burden to high impact"), 2) elimination countries ("shrinking the map"), and 3) a balance between the two ("proportional allocation").
✔️ Explore how competing aims in the short-term hamper achieving long-term eradication goals.